scholarly journals MEASURING CREDIT STRUCTURE IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CROATIA USING (VECM) 1990-2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 294-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marinko Škare ◽  
Dean Sinković ◽  
Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Empirical Modeling ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Lending Policy ◽  
Credit Structure ◽  
Private Loans

Studies on the finance-growth link use different proxy variables for financial development. Among the most used is the total credit share in the GDP. Previous empirical studies show to be sensitive to the choice of the finance proxy indicator. Total credit share in the GDP appears biased in empirical modeling. Credit structure (loans to firms and households) prove to be more robust when used in the modeling. Credit structure reveals a different impact on economic growth showing lending policy impact varies depending on the credit structure. Researchers studying the finance-growth link must account for this when investigating supply leading and demand-following theories. Policymakers should also take care of the credit structure since loans to household discourage growth in the long run and are sensitive to economic shocks. We find empirical evidence to support both supply leading and demand- following theory. Bi-directional causality between private loans to firms/households and economic growth exists using Granger causality test. Private loans to firms and households economic growth exists using Granger causality test. Private loans to firms and households have a positive impact on economic growth in Croatia.

scholarly journals The Relation between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Case of Saudi Arabia as an Emerging Tourism Destination

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 29-47
Author(s):  
Lamia Jamel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test

This paper examines empirically the relation between tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The authors try to justify how tourism contributes to the economic growth of Saudi Arabia. There are applied descriptive statistics, unit root test, VAR model and Granger Causality test as an econometric methodology to examine the connection between tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia for the annual data in the period from 1990 to 2018. The main empirical results of the study find out that tourism affects positively the economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Also, there is found a positive nexus among tourism and economic growth. Furthermore, CO2 emissions and financial development impact positively the tourism sector, while trade openness predicts a negative effect on tourism. Additionally, CO2 emissions, financial development, and trade openness have a positive impact on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Finally, the Granger causality test provides evidence of bidirectional nexus between tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. This paper contributes to the current research by explaining the causal nexus among tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia during the period from 1990 to 2018, applying a vector autoregressive model and Granger Causality.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals ODA and Provincial Economic Growth in Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dang Ngoc Duc ◽  
Do Thi Ngoc Lan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test

The focal point of this paper is focused on assessing the causal relationship between ODA and economic growth in the localities of Vietnam. This research uses panel data of ODA and GDP from 63 provinces of Vietnam by using Granger Causality test. The results showed that ODA has a causal effect on economic growth (GDP) and vice versa, economic growth decides to attract ODA in provinces in Vietnam. This result complements studies on the causal relationship between ODA and economic growth using new empirical evidence through case studies in the provinces of Vietnam.

scholarly journals Linear and Nonlinear Causal Relationships Between International Reserves and Economic Growth: Evidence from India

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-59
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kashif ◽  
Satish Kumar Singh ◽  
S. Thiyagarajan ◽  
Abhishek Maheshwari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Bds Test

This study investigates linear and nonlinear causal relationships between accumulated international reserves (IR) and economic growth (Econ) in the case of India. The present study is carried out using quarterly data ranging from the period of the first quarter of 1985 to the fourth quarter of 2014. The study used econometric tools such as the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the linear Granger causality test, Johansen’s cointegration test, the Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (BDS) test and the nonlinear Granger causality test developed by Hiemstra and Jones. The study establishes that there exists a bidirectional linear causality. The Hiemstra and Jones test reveals a bidirectional nonlinear causal relationship between the variables. In light of these results, the study suggests that reserves accumulation can be implemented in India provided that excess of reserves are invested in alternative sources such as economic infrastructure projects and regional infrastructure development.

scholarly journals Human Capital and Economic Growth in Morocco: Evidence from Bayesian Model Averaging

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omar Essardi ◽  
Redouane Razzouk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test

The paper investigates the relationship between human capital and economic growth in Morocco during the period from 1965 to 2015. In order to test this relationship we estimated a growth function using firstly the Johansen multivariate cointegration test and the Granger causality test. Secondly, we used the method of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) that takes into consideration the uncertainty related to the specification of the model studied. In the theoretical literature, the difficulty of measuring human capital is often stressed. In order to overcome this problem, we use four proxies of human capital: first, we employ the average years of schooling. Second, we use the index of the gap in life expectancy between Morocco and developed countries. Third, we integrate the qualitative aspects of education and health by constructing two composite indicators of human capital using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method.The main results of regression analysis confirm that in the specification of determinants of GDP per worker the average years of total schooling, the life expectancy index and the indicator of quality of health affect positively and significantly level of GDP per worker. However, in the specification of determinants of the growth of the GDP per worker, we found there is no proxy of human capital that affects significantly the growth of the GDP per worker.In addition, the results of Granger causality test show that only the indicator of quality of health that cause the GDP per worker. As well, these results show that the average years of total schooling and the indicator of quality of education cause the growth of GDP per worker. We suggest that the Moroccan authorities should make additional efforts to raise the level of quality of human capital especially in the health sector and increase the productivity of both public and private investment.

A Granger Causality Analysis between the GDP and CO2 Emissions of Major Emitters and Implications for International Climate Governance

2018 ◽  
Vol 06 (01) ◽  
pp. 1850004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mou WANG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Climate Governance ◽  
International Climate ◽  
Integration Analysis

This paper empirically examines the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth by applying the co-integration analysis and Granger causality test to the time series data of carbon emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) of the world’s top 20 emitters from 1990 to 2015. Co-integration analysis shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in most countries; Granger causality test verifies a one-way causal link between carbon emissions and economic growth in most major emitters. In developed countries, economic growth is the Granger cause of carbon emissions, while the opposite is true in developing countries. The results reflect different characteristics regarding carbon emission reduction in developed and developing countries as they are at different developing stages. Carbon emission reduction exerts much greater adverse effects on the economic growth of developing countries than it does on that of developed countries. Based on the results of the Granger causal analysis, it is found that the requirements for developing countries to substantially reduce emissions are not in line with the characteristics in their current developing stage and therefore may pose obstructions. Developed countries should take the lead in carrying out emission reductions due to their accountability for historical emissions as well as their development stages and capabilities. In addition, they should aid developing countries in their efforts for transforming and upgrading development and reducing dependence of economic growth on carbon emissions. International climate governance should take into account the needs and characteristics of different countries for future development, and build a mechanism for international cooperation to achieve synergy between social economic development and global climate governance.

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