scholarly journals PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EURO AREA COUNTRIES. A WAVELET APPROACH

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Ada-Cristina Albu ◽  
Lucian-Liviu Albu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Member States ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
Economic Output

In this paper we propose to analyze the dynamic of the relation between public debt and economic growth rate for Euro area countries by employing a wavelet approach, establishing thus both short-term and long-term correlations between these two variables. In this way we will present time-frequency dependencies between debt and economic growth and differentiate between short term and long-term effects. High levels of public debt have a negative impact on the economic output, because they entail concerns about debt sustainability. Non-linear analysis of the debt-growth nexus shows the existence of thresholds from which rising indebtedness can hamper economic growth. Using wavelet analysis, we demonstrate that there is a strong relation between public debt and economic growth, especially for high frequencies, public debt having a significant impact on economic growth in case of periods situated above 2 years for most Euro Zone member states. High debt levels can cause serious effects on fiscal stability and therefore require fiscal consolidation in order to restore economic growth. Therefore, Euro Zone member states should implement prudent debt policies and establish clear limits for debt increase, in order to comply with fiscal sustainability and ensure conditions for preserving economic growth.

scholarly journals Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willem Vanlaer ◽  
Wim Marneffe ◽  
Lode Vereeck ◽  
Johan Vanovertveldt
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Debt Accumulation ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Total Level ◽  
Private Credit ◽  
The Impact

Although the recent global financial crisis has stimulated a vast amount of research on the impact of public debt on economic growth and also increasingly on the role of private credit, the total levels of indebtedness of an economy have largely been ignored. This paper studies the impact of the total level of and increases in debt-to-GDP on economic growth for 26 developed countries in the short, medium and longer term. We analyse whether we can predict the future level of growth, simply by looking at the total level of debt, or increases in that debt level. We find that there is a negative correlation between high levels of debt and short term economic growth, but that this effect tapers in the medium and long term. Similarly, we find that rapid debt accumulation is negatively related to economic growth over the short term, the impact is less pronounced over the medium term and is non-existent over the long term.

scholarly journals The Impact of Government Debt on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
ABDULKARIM YUSUF ◽  
Saidatulakmal Mohd.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Enhancement Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Study Objective ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The study investigated the effect of public debt on Nigeria’s economic growth using annual time series data from 1980-2018. In collecting, evaluating and interpreting secondary data relating to the study objective, the quantitative and ex-post facto research design was adopted. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag method was applied to assess the short and long-term linkages between economic growth and public debt indicators. The empirical results showed that external debt stock constituted an impediment to long-term growth but a short-run growth-enhancement effect. Domestic debt accretion had a noteworthy positive impact on long-term output growth, while its short-term effect was negative. In the long and short-term, debt service payments led to growth retardation, although the amount of foreign reserves greatly improved growth both in the long and short-run. The diagnostic tests results indicated no problems with non-normality, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity and error in the predicted model specification. The findings of this study suggest that concerted efforts should be made to boost domestic revenue generation and execute fiscal transformations that reduce public debt and deficit financing to a sustainable level, while ensuring that borrowed funds are deployed to support growth through productive and self-liquidating investments in principal sectors of the economy.

scholarly journals Effects of External Public Debt Cancellation on the Economic Growth of the Republic Of Congo

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauric NGOUEMBE ◽  
Jean-Anaclet Mampassi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Temporal Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Debt Cancellation ◽  
The Republic

This study, through temporal data and the ARDL process, examined the effects of the cancellation of external public debt on economic growth in the Republic of Congo over the 1990 to 2016 period. From this review, it appears that debt cancellation has a positive impact on economic growth over the short-term and a negative impact over the long term. Beyond these results, we believe that additional research is needed to examine the channels through which external public debt cancellation influence economic growth in the Republic of Congo.

Take it to the (public) bank: The efficiency of public bank loans to private firms

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Kärnä
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Firm Growth ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Unique Dataset

AbstractIncomplete capital markets and credit constraints for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are often considered obstacles to economic growth, thus motivating government interventions in capital markets. While such policies are common, it is less clear to what extent these interventions result in firm growth or to which firms interventions should be targeted. Using a unique dataset with information about state bank loans targeting credit-constrained SMEs in Sweden with and without complementary private bank loans, this paper contributes to the literature by studying how these loans affect the targeted firms for several outcome variables. The results suggest that the loans create a one-off increase in investments, with long-term, positive effects for sales and labor productivity but only for firms with 10 or fewer employees. Increased access to capital by firms can therefore produce increases in economic output but only in a specific type of firm. This insight is of key importance in designing policy if the aim is to increase economic growth.

Unfolding the case of returnees: How the European Union and its member States are addressing the return of foreign fighters and their families

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Carlota Rigotti ◽  
Júlia Zomignani Barboza
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Member States ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
Term Response

Abstract The return of foreign fighters and their families to the European Union has mostly been considered a security threat by member States, which consequently adopt repressive measures aimed at providing an immediate, short-term response to this perceived threat. In addition to this strong-arm approach, reintegration strategies have also been used to prevent returnees from falling back into terrorism and to break down barriers of hostility between citizens in the long term. Amidst these different strategies, this paper seeks to identify which methods are most desirable for handling returnees.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10276
Author(s):  
María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera ◽  
Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Sustainability Controlling ◽  
Aging Societies

Fiscal sustainability remains a paramount challenge in the Euro Area (EA) countries after the sharp rise in public debt-to-GDP ratios in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. Using data from 11 EA countries over the period 1980–2019, we apply panel data techniques to examine the effects of population aging on fiscal sustainability, controlling for key macroeconomic variables. Our results suggest that the discretionary fiscal policy is strongly persistent, not being consistent with long-term fiscal solvency. Moreover, our results indicate that the fiscal stance is countercyclical for the countries under study and that population aging poses a major challenge for fiscal sustainability. The findings are robust to a different grouping of countries within the sample (core and peripheral countries, relatively old and young countries, and relatively more and less indebted countries). We consider that our results may have some practical meaning for national policymakers and international organizations responsible for regional and global fiscal surveillance and might shed some light on the possible effects that population aging could have on the effort of EA countries to restore public finances on a sustainable basis.

scholarly journals THE TESTING OF MONEY NEUTRALITY IN ECONOMIC GROWTH OF INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Muammil Sun’an ◽  
Amran Husen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Broad Sense ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model

<p>This study aim is to test the money neutrality in a narrow sense (M1) and a broad sense (M2) to the growth of output (GDP) in Indonesia, both in short term and long term. This research uses quarterly time series data at 2010 - 2016 periods. The analysis tool used is Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that short-term money supply (M1 and M2) affect on output growth. However, in the long term, only money circulation in a broad sense (M2) affects on output growth, which also means that money is not neutral because it affects the real sector (GDP).</p><p> <strong>Keywords:</strong> M1, M2, Population, Capital, and Economic Growth.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Economic Growth, Trade Openness and Technological Progress on Renewable Energy Use in Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development Countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Mahmudul Alam ◽  
Wahid Murad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Short Term

This study investigates the short-term and long-term impacts of economic growth, trade openness and technological progress on renewable energy use in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Based on a panel data set of 25 OECD countries for 43 years, we used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the related intermediate estimators, including pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) to achieve the objective. The estimated ARDL model has also been checked for robustness using the two substitute single equation estimators, these being the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). Empirical results reveal that economic growth, trade openness and technological progress significantly influence renewable energy use over the long-term in OECD countries. While the long-term nature of dynamics of the variables is found to be similar across 25 OECD countries, their short-term dynamics are found to be mixed in nature. This is attributed to varying levels of trade openness and technological progress in OECD countries. Since this is a pioneer study that investigates the issue, the findings are completely new and they make a significant contribution to renewable energy literature as well as relevant policy development.

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