scholarly journals Does a suburban reserve host a significant Carabuspopulations? A capture-recapture case study in Budapest, Hungary

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bérces Sándor
Keyword(s):  
Survival Rate ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Pitfall Traps ◽  
Forested Area ◽  
Habitat Islands ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
To Receive

A two season capture-recapture study was preformed between 2016-2017, focusing on the Carabus species living in a suburban park (3 hectare) in Budapest, Hungary. Eighty live-capture, non-baited pitfall traps were used in a 3 x 3 m grid in 4 rows and 20 columns, covering almost totally a forested area of 240 m2. Five Carabus species were captured, the most numerous were C. scheidleri, C. ullrichii and C. coriaceus. C. convexus and C. intricatus were captured only a few times. All Carabus species were individually marked and released. Population size and survival rate was estimated only for the C. scheidleri population using POPAN in order to receive gross population size. In total 491 C. scheidleri individuals (251 females and 239 males) were marked. Recapture rate in 2016 and 2017 were 41 and 50 percent for the total population respectively. Estimated population size varied between years, the maximum population size was 680 ± 50 specimen in 2016. In 2017 a population size of 190 ± 16 individuals were estimated. Overwintering of eight C. scheidleri and three C. ullrichii specimen were observed. Less mobile large bodied forest specialist Carabus species living in a relatively small reserve underline the importance of habitat islands in a city.

scholarly journals Demographic rates of northern royal albatross at Taiaroa Head, New Zealand

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yvan Richard ◽  
Lyndon Perriman ◽  
Chris Lalas ◽  
Edward R. Abraham
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Total Population Size ◽  
Annual Survival ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Age At First Breeding ◽  
The Mean

Demographic rates, such as annual survival rate, are generally difficult to estimate for long-lived seabirds, because of the length of time required for this kind of study and the remoteness of colonies. However, a small colony of northern royal albatross (Diomedea sanfordi) established itself on the mainland of New Zealand at Taiaroa Head, making possible regular banding and monitoring of its individuals since the first chick fledged, in 1938. Data on the presence/absence of birds, as well as on breeding outcomes, were available for the period from 1989–90 to 2011–12, and included 2128 annual resightings of 355 banded individuals of known age. The main goal of the present study was to estimate the annual survival rate of juveniles, pre-breeders, and adults at Taiaroa Head. These rates were estimated simultaneously in a single Bayesian multi-state capture-recapture model. Several models were fitted to the data, with different levels of complexity. From the most parsimonious model, the overall annual adult survival rate was estimated as 0.950 (95% c.i.: 0.941–0.959). In this model, adult survival declined with age, from 0.976 (95% c.i.: 0.963–0.988) at 6 years, the minimum age at first breeding, to 0.915 (95% c.i.: 0.879–0.946) at 40 years. Mean annual survival of pre-breeders was 0.966 (95% c.i.: 0.950–0.980), and 0.933 (95% c.i.: 0.908–0.966) for juveniles. There was no discernible difference in survival between males and females, and there was no apparent trend in survival over time. Estimates of other demographic rates were also obtained during the estimation process. The mean age at first return of juveniles to the colony was estimated as 4.8 years (95% c.i.: 4.6–5.1), and the mean age at first breeding as 8.9 years (95% c.i.: 8.5–9.3). Because all the birds of the colony were banded, it was possible to estimate the total population size. The number of northern royal albatross present annually at the Taiaroa Head colony has doubled since 1989–90, and the current total population size was estimated to be over 200 individuals. The ratio of the total population size to the number of annual breeding pairs varied from 5 to 12 among years, with an overall mean of 7.65 (95% c.i.: 7.56–7.78), and this high variability highlights the need for a sufficient number of surveys of seabird breeding populations before reliable conclusions on population trends can be made. Although long-term data allowed estimates of demographic rates of northern royal albatross at Taiaroa Head, the location of the colony and the ongoing management by staff mean that the population dynamics may differ from those of the main population on the Chatham Islands.

Applications of Difference Equation in Population Forecasting Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 1079-1080 ◽  
pp. 664-667
Author(s):  
Chun Miao Huang ◽  
Wei Ping Wang
Keyword(s):  
Survival Rate ◽  
Difference Equation ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Rural Area ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Population Forecasting

This article gets thepopulation data based on China Population Statistics Yearbook ,and establishes a model for forecasting thegrowth of population grouped by ages. First, a difference equation model invector form is established for urban area, town and rural arearespectively. In equation (I), matrix is determined byfertility rate and survival rate of urban area, townand rural area respectively. The short-term population size predicted from thismodel has calculated the gross population of each year during 2002~2020. The 19data we got were used to generate a function between population size y (hundredmillion) and time x (year) by polynomial fitting : , and the max of this function is y = 1.47121 billion when x= 20, which means that the Chinese total population will peak at 1, 471, 210,000 in 2021.

scholarly journals Demographic rates of northern royal albatross at Taiaroa Head, New Zealand

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yvan Richard ◽  
Lyndon Perriman ◽  
Chris Lalas ◽  
Edward R. Abraham
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Total Population Size ◽  
Annual Survival ◽  
Demographic Rates ◽  
Age At First Breeding ◽  
The Mean

Demographic rates, such as annual survival rate, are generally difficult to estimate for long-lived seabirds, because of the length of time required for this kind of study and the remoteness of colonies. However, a small colony of northern royal albatross (Diomedea sanfordi) established itself on the mainland of New Zealand at Taiaroa Head, making possible regular banding and monitoring of its individuals since the first chick fledged, in 1938. Data on the presence/absence of birds, as well as on breeding outcomes, were available for the period from 1989–90 to 2011–12, and included 2128 annual resightings of 355 banded individuals of known age. The main goal of the present study was to estimate the annual survival rate of juveniles, pre-breeders, and adults at Taiaroa Head. These rates were estimated simultaneously in a single Bayesian multi-state capture-recapture model. Several models were fitted to the data, with different levels of complexity. From the most parsimonious model, the overall annual adult survival rate was estimated as 0.950 (95% c.i.: 0.941–0.959). In this model, adult survival declined with age, from 0.976 (95% c.i.: 0.963–0.988) at 6 years, the minimum age at first breeding, to 0.915 (95% c.i.: 0.879–0.946) at 40 years. Mean annual survival of pre-breeders was 0.966 (95% c.i.: 0.950–0.980), and 0.933 (95% c.i.: 0.908–0.966) for juveniles. There was no discernible difference in survival between males and females, and there was no apparent trend in survival over time. Estimates of other demographic rates were also obtained during the estimation process. The mean age at first return of juveniles to the colony was estimated as 4.8 years (95% c.i.: 4.6–5.1), and the mean age at first breeding as 8.9 years (95% c.i.: 8.5–9.3). Because all the birds of the colony were banded, it was possible to estimate the total population size. The number of northern royal albatross present annually at the Taiaroa Head colony has doubled since 1989–90, and the current total population size was estimated to be over 200 individuals. The ratio of the total population size to the number of annual breeding pairs varied from 5 to 12 among years, with an overall mean of 7.65 (95% c.i.: 7.56–7.78), and this high variability highlights the need for a sufficient number of surveys of seabird breeding populations before reliable conclusions on population trends can be made. Although long-term data allowed estimates of demographic rates of northern royal albatross at Taiaroa Head, the location of the colony and the ongoing management by staff mean that the population dynamics may differ from those of the main population on the Chatham Islands.

scholarly journals National and subnational size estimation of female sex workers in Ghana 2020: Comparing 3-source capture-recapture with other approaches

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0256949
Author(s):  
Chris Guure ◽  
Samuel Dery ◽  
Seth Afagbedzi ◽  
Waimar Tun ◽  
Sharon Stucker Weir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Sex Workers ◽  
Female Sex Workers ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Preventive Treatment ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
Care Services ◽  
Population Size Estimate ◽  
Capture Recapture

Background Key Population size estimation (PSE) is instrumental for HIV/STI preventive, treatment and care services planning, implementation and delivery. The objective was to estimate the overall population of female sex workers (FSW) in all the 16 regions of Ghana using different PSE methods. Method Mapping of venues and complete enumeration of seaters was conducted at the formative stage prior to the bio-behavioral survey (BBS). Three PSE methods were used to derive the size estimates of FSW in the 16 regions. These include: Capture-recapture (CRC), service multiplier and three-source capture recapture (3SCRC) methods. The final choice of the estimation method used to estimate the roamer population was 3SCRC. This method was chosen because of its perfect record-linkage–hierarchic combination of three names that minimizes overmatching as well as the addition of an interaction term in the model which corrects for the dependencies in CRC. Results The total population size estimate of the female sex workers in the country obtained for roamers using capture re-capture was 41,746 (95% CI: 41,488–41,932). Using the service multiplier, the total population for both the roamers and seaters was 41,153 (95% CI: 37,242–45,984). The 3-source capture re-capture yielded 55,686 roamers FSW (95% CI: 47,686–63,686). The seater population was 4,363 FSW based on census/complete enumeration. The total population size estimate of FSW (seaters and roamers) in Ghana was 60,049 when 3SCRC and census were added. This represents about 0.76% of all estimated adult females aged 15-49yrs in Ghana. Conclusion We report population size estimates (PSE) for FSW in Ghana. These estimates are the results of 3SCRC. These findings provide a valid and reliable source of information that should be referenced by government officials and policymakers to plan, implement and provide HIV/STI preventive, treatment, and care services for FSW in Ghana.

Estimating the population size of people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: A two-survey capture-recapture exercise (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abu Abdul-Quader
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Illicit Drugs ◽  
People Who Inject Drugs ◽  
Care Service ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Size Estimation ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
The City ◽  
Size Estimates

BACKGROUND Population size estimation of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam relied on the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package and reports from the city police department. The two estimates vary widely. OBJECTIVE To estimate the population size of people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam METHODS Using Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), we implemented two-source capture-recapture method to estimate the population size of PWID in HCMC in 2017 in 7 out of 24 districts. The study included men or women aged at least 18 years who reported injecting illicit drugs in the last 90 days and who had lived in the city the past six months. We calculated two sets of size estimates, the first assumed that all participants in each survey round resided in the district where the survey was conducted, the second, used the district of residence as reported by the participant. District estimates were summed to obtain an aggregate estimate for the seven districts. To calculate the city total, we weighted the population size estimates for each district by the inverse of the stratum specific sampling probabilities. RESULTS The first estimate resulted in a population size of 19,155 (95% CI: 17,006–25,039). The second one generated a smaller population size estimate of 12,867 (95% CI: 11,312–17,393). CONCLUSIONS The two-survey capture-recapture exercise provided two disparate estimates of PWID in HCMC. For planning HIV prevention and care service needs among PWID in HCMC, both estimates may need to be taken into consideration together with size estimates from other sources.

scholarly journals The DWQ-EMR Embedded Tool to Enhance the Family Physician-Caregiver Connection: A Pilot Case Study

Geriatrics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Kristina Marie Kokorelias ◽  
Einat Danieli ◽  
Sheila Dunn ◽  
Sid Feldman ◽  
David Patrick Ryan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Family Caregivers ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Family Physicians ◽  
Efficient Manner ◽  
Efficient Access ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
To Receive

The number of family caregivers to individuals with dementia is increasing. Family physicians are often the first point of access to the health care system for individuals with dementia and their caregivers. Caregivers are at an increased risk of developing negative physical, cognitive and affective health problems themselves. Caregivers also describe having unmet needs to help them sustain care in the community. Family physicians are in a unique position to help support caregivers and individuals with dementia, but often struggle with keeping up with best practice dementia service knowledge. The Dementia Wellness Questionnaire was designed to serve as a starting point for discussions between caregivers and family physicians by empowering caregivers to communicate their needs and concerns and to enhance family physicians’ access to specific dementia support information. The DWQ aims to alert physicians of caregiver and patient needs. This pilot study aimed to explore the experiences of physicians and caregivers of people using the Questionnaire in two family medicine clinics in Ontario, Canada. Interviews with physicians and caregivers collected data on their experiences using the DWQ following a 10-month data gathering period. Data was analyzed using content analysis. Results indicated that family physicians may have an improved efficacy in managing dementia by having dementia care case specific guidelines integrated within electronic medical records. By having time-efficient access to tailored supports, family physicians can better address the needs of the caregiver–patient dyad and help support family caregivers in their caregiving role. Caregivers expressed that the Questionnaire helped them remember concerns to bring up with physicians, in order to receive help in a more efficient manner.

scholarly journals Social structure and demography of a remnant Asian elephant Elephas maximus population and the implications for survival

Oryx ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Lauren J. Hale ◽  
Kun Shi ◽  
Tania C. Gilbert ◽  
Kelvin S.-H. Peh ◽  
Philip Riordan
Keyword(s):  
Social Structure ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Camera Traps ◽  
Asian Elephant ◽  
Elephas Maximus ◽  
Effective Density ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures ◽  
Sex Ratio Bias ◽  
Elephant Population

Abstract The Asian elephant Elephas maximus is at risk of extinction as a result of anthropogenic pressures, and remaining populations are often small and fragmented remnants, occupying a fraction of the species' former range. Once widely distributed across China, only a maximum of 245 elephants are estimated to survive across seven small populations. We assessed the Asian elephant population in Nangunhe National Nature Reserve in Lincang Prefecture, China, using camera traps during May–July 2017, to estimate the population size and structure of this genetically important population. Although detection probability was low (0.31), we estimated a total population size of c. 20 individuals, and an effective density of 0.39 elephants per km2. Social structure indicated a strong sex ratio bias towards females, with only one adult male detected within the population. Most of the elephants associated as one herd but three adult females remained separate from the herd throughout the trapping period. These results highlight the fragility of remnant elephant populations such as Nangunhe and we suggest options such as a managed metapopulation approach for their continued survival in China and more widely.

scholarly journals Context-Aware Adaptation of Component-Based Systems: An Active Repository Approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sindolfo Miranda Filho ◽  
Julio Melo ◽  
Luiz Eduardo Leite ◽  
Guido Lemos
Keyword(s):  
Context Aware ◽  
Current Configuration ◽  
Fuzzy Logic Algorithm ◽  
Running System ◽  
Component Based Software Engineering ◽  
Context Aware System ◽  
The Given ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Component Repository

Context-aware systems are able to monitor and automatically adapt their operation accordingly to the execution context in which they are introduced. Component-based software engineering (CBSE) focuses on the development and reuse of self-contained software assets in order to achieve better productivity and quality. In order to store and retrieve components, CBSE employs component repository systems to provide components to the system developers. This paper presents an active component repository that is able to receive the current configuration from the context-aware system and compute the components and the new architecture that better fit the given context. Since the repository has a wide knowledge of available components, it can better decide which configuration is more suitable to the running system. The repository applies Fuzzy logic algorithm to evaluate the adequacy level of the components and GRASP algorithm to mount the new system architecture. In order to verify the feasibility of our approach, we use a digital TV middleware case study to achieve experimental results.

Production, Mortality, And Sustainable Yield Of Northwest Atlantic Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus)

1978 ◽  
Vol 35 (9) ◽  
pp. 1249-1261 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. H. Winters
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Sustainable Yield ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Northwest Atlantic ◽  
The Past ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Pagophilus Groenlandicus

From recent and historical data the natural mortality rate of adult harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) is estimated to be 0.10 which is within the range of previous estimates (0.08–0.11). New estimates of bedlamer and 0-group natural mortality rates were not significantly different from those of adult seals. Pup production estimates from survival indices agreed well with those from sequential population analyses and indicated a decline from about 350 000 animals in the early 1950s to about 310 000 animals in the early 1970s. Over the same period the 1+ population size declined from 2.5 to 1.1 million animals but has been increasing at the rate of 3%/yr since the introduction of quotas in 1972. The relative contribution of the "Front" production to total ("Front" plus Gulf) production during the past decade has fluctuated from 49 to 87%, the average of 64% being very similar to the 61% obtained previously. These fluctuations suggest some interchange between "Front" and Gulf adults and it is concluded that homing in the breeding areas is a facultative rather than obligatory aspect of seal behavior. Thus the heavier exploitation of the "Front" production is probably sufficiently diffused into the total population to avoid serious effects on "Front" production. The maximum sustainable yield of Northwest Atlantic seals harvested according to recent patterns is estimated to be 290 000 animals (80% pups) from a 1+ population size of 1.8 million animals producing 460 000 pups annually. The sustainable yield at present levels of pup production (335 000 animals) is calculated to be 220 000 animals which is substantially above the present TAC of 180 000 animals and coincides with present harvesting strategies designed to enable the seal hunt to increase slowly towards the MSY level. Key words: mortality, production, sustainable yield, population dynamics, marine mammal

On a model for a fair distribution of gifts

1971 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 681-690
Author(s):  
János Galambos
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Fair Distribution ◽  
To Receive

A number of items are to be distributed among n individuals, arranged in a line and labelled by the integers 1, 2, ···, n, in such a way that the distance between any two members presented should be at least d, a given number, but otherwise any subset of the population should have the same probability of each of its members being presented. The number of items thus distributed is a random variable X(d, n) and it turns out that X(d, n) is asymptotically a fixed percentage of the population size n. This fact makes it possible to apply the model in a number of situations. For example, if in a foreign aid program a number of tools are offered and to be distributed in a fair way but, for lack of sufficient quantity, one tool is expected to be used by a number of neighbours, the model is applicable if the amount of aid is not fixed in advance but may vary within certain limits. A similar situation arises in cases of disaster (floods, earthquakes, etc.) when the victims are sent gifts, again in an insufficient quantity, hence for the sake of justice, a family of a smaller size is supposed to receive only one gift. In many other similar cases, the model can be used.

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