adult survival
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Author(s):  
Cínthia G. Garlet ◽  
Dionei S. Muraro ◽  
Daniela N. Godoy ◽  
Gisele E. Cossa ◽  
Manoela R. Hanich ◽  
...  

Abstract Fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (Smith), is one of the major pests targeted by transgenic crops expressing insecticidal proteins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Berliner. However, FAW presents a high capacity to develop resistance to Bt protein-expressing crop lines, as reported in Brazil, Argentina, Puerto Rico and the southeastern U.S. Here, FAW genotypes resistant to pyramided maize events expressing Cry1F/Cry1A.105/Cry2Ab2 (P-R genotype) and Cry1A.105/Cry2Ab2 (Y-R genotype) from Brazil were used to investigate the interactions between non-Bt hosts (non-Bt maize, non-Bt cotton, millet and sorghum) and fitness costs. We also tested a FAW genotype susceptible to Bt maize and F1 hybrids of the resistant and susceptible genotypes (heterozygotes). Recessive fitness costs (i.e., costs affecting the resistant insects) were observed for pupal and neonate to adult survival of the P-R genotype on non-Bt cotton; larval developmental time of the P-R genotype on millet and sorghum; larval and neonate-to-adult developmental time of the Y-R genotype on non-Bt cotton and sorghum; the fecundity of the Y-R genotype on non-Bt cotton; and mean generation time of both resistant genotypes. However, on non-Bt cotton and non-Bt maize, the P-R genotype had a higher fitness (i.e., fitness benefits), displaying greater fecundity and rates of population increases than the Sus genotype. Non-recessive fitness costs (i.e., costs affecting heterozygotes) were found for fecundity and population increases on millet and sorghum. These findings suggest that, regardless of the disadvantages of the resistant genotypes in some hosts, the resistance of FAW to Cry1 and Cry2 Bt proteins is not linked with substantial fitness costs, and may persist in field conditions once present.


2022 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark C. Fisher ◽  
Ryan A. Prioreschi ◽  
Lisa L. Wolfe ◽  
Jonathan P. Runge ◽  
Karen A. Griffin ◽  
...  

AbstractThe contagious prion disease “chronic wasting disease” (CWD) infects mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) and related species. Unchecked epidemics raise ecological, socioeconomic, and public health concerns. Prion infection shortens a deer’s lifespan, and when prevalence (proportion of adults infected) becomes sufficiently high CWD can affect herd dynamics. Understanding population responses over time is key to forecasting long-term impacts. Here we describe unexpected stability in prevalence and abundance in a mule deer herd where CWD has been left unmanaged. High apparent prevalence (~30%) since at least 2005 likely drove observed changes in the proportion and age distribution of wild-type native prion protein (PRNP) gene homozygotes among deer sampled. Predation by mountain lions (Puma concolor) may be helping keep CWD in check. Despite stable appearances, prion disease nonetheless impairs adult survival and likely resilience in this deer herd, limiting its potential for growth despite refuge from hunter harvest and favorable habitat and winter conditions.


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Halfan Ngowo ◽  
Fredros Oketch Okumu ◽  
Emmanuel Elirehema Hape ◽  
Issa H Mshani ◽  
Heather M Ferguson ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: It is often assumed that the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles funestus, its role in malaria transmission and the way it responds to interventions are similar to the more elaborately characterized An. gambiae. However, An. funestus has several unique ecological features that could generate distinct transmission dynamics and responsiveness to interventions. The objectives of this work were to develop a model which will; 1) reconstruct the population dynamics, survival, and fecundity of wild An. funestus populations in southern Tanzania, 2) quantify impacts of density dependence on the dynamics, and 3) assess seasonal fluctuations in An. funestus demography. Through quantifying the population dynamics of An. funestus, this model will enable analysis of how their stability and response to interventions may different from that of An. gambiae s.l.Methods: A Bayesian State Space Model (SSM) based on mosquito life history was fit to time series data on the abundance of female An. funestus s.s. collected over 2 years in southern Tanzania. Prior values of fitness and demography were incorporated from empirical data on larval development, adult survival and fecundity from laboratory-reared first generation progeny of wild caught An. funestus. The model was structured to allow larval and adult fitness traits to vary seasonally in response to environmental covariates (i.e. temperature and rainfall), and for density dependency in larvae. We measured the effects of density dependence and seasonality through counterfactual examination of model fit with or without these covariates.Results: The model accurately reconstructed the seasonal population dynamics of An. funestus and generated biologically-plausible values of their survival larval, development and fecundity in the wild. This model suggests that An-funestus survival and fecundity annual pattern was highly variable across the year, but did not show consistent seasonal trends either rainfall or temperature. While the model fit was somewhat improved by inclusion of density dependence, this was a relatively minor effect and suggests that this process is not as important for An. funestus as it is for An. gambiae populations.Conclusion: The model's ability to accurately reconstruct the dynamics and demography of An. funestus could potentially be useful in simulating the response of these populations to vector control techniques deployed separately or in combination. The observed and simulated dynamics also suggests that An. funestus could be playing a role in year-round malaria transmission, with any apparent seasonality attributed to other vector species.


Author(s):  
Michael J. Anteau ◽  
Rose J. Swift ◽  
Mark H. Sherfy ◽  
David N. Koons ◽  
Kristen S. Ellis ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnaud G. Barras ◽  
Sébastien Blache ◽  
Michael Schaub ◽  
Raphaël Arlettaz

Species- and population-specific responses to their environment may depend to a large extent on the spatial variation in life-history traits and in demographic processes of local population dynamics. Yet, those parameters and their variability remain largely unknown for many cold-adapted species, which are exposed to particularly rapid rates of environmental change. Here, we compared the demographic traits and dynamics for an emblematic bird species of European mountain ecosystems, the ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus). Using integrated population models fitted in a Bayesian framework, we estimated the survival probability, productivity and immigration of two populations from the Western European Alps, in France (over 11 years) and Switzerland (over 6 years). Juvenile apparent survival was lower and immigration rate higher in the Swiss compared to the French population, with the temporal variation in population growth rate driven by different demographic processes. Yet, when compared to populations in the northwestern part of the range, in Scotland, these two Alpine populations both showed a much lower productivity and higher adult survival, indicating a slower life-history strategy. Our results suggest that demographic characteristics can substantially vary across the discontinuous range of this passerine species, essentially due to contrasted, possibly locally evolved life-history strategies. This study therefore raises the question of whether flexibility in life-history traits is widespread among boreo-alpine species and if it might provide adaptive potential for coping with current environmental change.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Jones ◽  
Luke J. Eberhart‐Hertel ◽  
Robert P. Freckleton ◽  
Joseph I. Hoffman ◽  
Oliver Krüger ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Thorley ◽  
Hanna Bensch ◽  
Kyle Finn ◽  
Tim Clutton-Brock ◽  
Markus Zöttl

Damaraland mole-rats (Fukomys damarensis) are usually viewed as an obligatorily group living eusocial species in which successful reproduction is dependent on reproductive altruism of closely related group members. However, the reproductive ecology of social mole-rats in their natural environment remains poorly understood and it is unclear to what extent successful reproduction is dependent on assistance from other group members. Using data from a 7-year field study of marked individuals, we show that, after dispersal from their natal group, individuals typically settled alone in new burrow systems where they enjoyed high survival rates, and often remained in good body condition for several years before finding a mate. Unlike most other eusocial or singular cooperative breeders, we found that Damaraland mole-rats reproduced successfully in pairs without helpers and experimentally formed pairs had the same reproductive success as larger established groups. Overall there was only a weak increase in reproductive success with increasing group size and no effect of group size on adult survival rates across the population. Juveniles in large groups grew faster early in life but their growth rates declined subsequently so that they eventually plateaued at a lower maximum body mass than juveniles from small groups. Taken together, our data suggest that the fitness benefits of group living to breeders are small and we suggest that extended philopatry in Damaraland mole-rats has evolved because of the high costs and constraints of dispersal rather than because of strong indirect benefits accrued through cooperative behaviour.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert C. Lacy ◽  
Randall S. Wells ◽  
Michael D. Scott ◽  
Jason B. Allen ◽  
Aaron A. Barleycorn ◽  
...  

Population models, such as those used for Population Viability Analysis (PVA), are valuable for projecting trends, assessing threats, guiding environmental resource management, and planning species conservation measures. However, rarely are the needed data on all aspects of the life history available for cetacean species, because they are long-lived and difficult to study in their aquatic habitats. We present a detailed assessment of population dynamics for the long-term resident Sarasota Bay common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) community. Model parameters were estimated from 27 years of nearly complete monitoring, allowing calculation of age-specific and sex-specific mortality and reproductive rates, uncertainty in parameter values, fluctuation in demographic rates over time, and intrinsic uncertainty in the population trajectory resulting from stochastic processes. Using the Vortex PVA model, we projected mean population growth and quantified causes of variation and uncertainty in growth. The ability of the model to simulate the dynamics of the population was confirmed by comparing model projections to observed census trends from 1993 to 2020. When the simulation treated all losses as deaths and included observed immigration, the model projects a long-term mean annual population growth of 2.1%. Variance in annual growth across years of the simulation (SD = 3.1%) was due more to environmental variation and intrinsic demographic stochasticity than to uncertainty in estimates of mean demographic rates. Population growth was most sensitive to uncertainty and annual variation in reproduction of peak breeding age females and in calf and juvenile mortality, while adult survival varied little over time. We examined potential threats to the population, including increased anthropogenic mortality and impacts of red tides, and tested resilience to catastrophic events. Due to its life history characteristics, the population was projected to be demographically stable at smaller sizes than commonly assumed for Minimum Viable Population of mammals, but it is expected to recover only slowly from any catastrophic events, such as disease outbreaks and spills of oil or other toxins. The analyses indicate that well-studied populations of small cetaceans might typically experience slower growth rates (about 2%) than has been assumed in calculations of Potential Biological Removal used by management agencies to determine limits to incidental take of marine mammals. The loss of an additional one dolphin per year was found to cause significant harm to this population of about 150 to 175 animals. Beyond the significance for the specific population, demographic analyses of the Sarasota Bay dolphins provide a template for examining viability of other populations of small cetaceans.


Diversity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 652
Author(s):  
Carine Firmino Carvalho-Roel ◽  
Oswaldo Marçal Júnior

The blue-and-yellow macaw (Ara ararauna) is suffering from higher roadkill rates (RK) at the Emas National Park (ENP), an important Brazilian National Park in the Cerrado biome. This species is also a victim of nest poaching for illegal trade. We modeled the blue-and-yellow macaw population’s viability in ENP and how this viability is affected by roadkill and nest poaching. We hereby report that the species is critically at risk and could be extinct in about a decade when considering both threats. Without considering any threat, 150 individuals are necessary to maintain a viable population. When individuals are harvested at a roadkill rate of 0.008 individuals/km/year and at twice this level, the viability figures increase to 4500 and 7500 birds, respectively. For nest poaching, we estimated that 2000 individuals are required to maintain a viable population. When both threats are present, 5000 individuals are necessary. The dynamics of the population are highly sensitive to the age at which females reproduce for the first time and the proportion of reproducing adult females, followed by the rate of adult survival. Our model demonstrates how even a non-threatened highly mobile species, such as the blue-and-yellow macaw, may be at risk due to human activities.


Author(s):  
Eric R.B. Smyth ◽  
D. Andrew R. Drake

Understanding the factors underlying species establishment is critical for the management of invasive fishes, yet the roles of propagule pressure and environmental factors are infrequently quantified in joint models. We estimated the establishment likelihood of the invasive black carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus) by examining the relative influence of propagule pressure (introduction size and age structure) and environmental factors (temperature-driven young-of-year [YOY] overwinter survival, adult survival, age at maturity, and longevity). Simulations demonstrated that both propagule pressure and environmental factors can act as non-linear bottlenecks to establishment. When the model was applied to 12 Great Lakes tributaries and nearshore areas, black carp establishment was probable with sufficient propagules and under most environmental conditions (median p = 0.21–0.73, 0.70–1.00, and 0.46–0.97 for 100 pairs of age 4, age 9, and age 16 fish, respectively), except for YOY (p < 0.01). Our analysis is one of the few studies to examine the relative role of propagule pressure and environmental conditions on establishment, indicating that both factors can lead to establishment failure independently or concurrently within an ecosystem.


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