Risk Assessment of Enterprise Merger and Acquisition Based on Event Tree Method and Fuzzy Set Theory

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 4819-4825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang-Rong Li ◽  
Chun-He Li ◽  
Xiu-Hong Niu ◽  
Li-Ping Yang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Merger And Acquisition ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Tree Method

Uncertainty Analysis in Quantitative Risk Assessment

1996 ◽  
Vol 118 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Quin ◽  
G. E. O. Widera
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
The Other ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Criticality Analysis

Of the quantitative approaches applied to inservice inspection, failure modes, effects,criticality analysis (FMECA) methodology is recommended. FMECA can provide a straightforward illustration of how risk can be used to prioritize components for inspection (ASME, 1991). But, at present, it has two limitations. One is that it cannot be used in the situation where components have multiple failure modes. The other is that it cannot be used in the situation where the uncertainties in the data of components have nonuniform distributions. In engineering practice, these two situations exist in many cases. In this paper, two methods based on fuzzy set theory are presented to treat these problems. The methods proposed here can be considered as a supplement to FMECA, thus extending its range of applicability.

A Computerized Method for Delay Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Set Theory using MS Project™

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 2714-2725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cenk Budayan ◽  
Irem Dikmen ◽  
M. Talat Birgonul ◽  
Aydın Ghaziani
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Computerized Method

scholarly journals Event Tree Analysis of Xinda Oil Pipeline Leakage Based on Fuzzy Set Theory

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Wang ◽  
Enbin Liu ◽  
Liyu Huang
Keyword(s):  
Set Theory ◽  
Membership Function ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Single Event ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Oil Pipeline ◽  
Outcome Probability

Event tree is a logical analysis of probability for outcome events by initiating event and probable subsequent events. However, the evaluation of every single event may contain vague information or cannot be described by a crisp number of probabilities in application. So this paper aims to develop an event tree by using fuzzy set theory with a combination of triangle membership function and trapezoidal membership function to quantify the vagueness of information and calculate the outcome probability. Through the analysis of an oil pipeline leakage accident, the method provided is fully used and the expansion of accident can be tracked through different paths of event tree.

scholarly journals FANPCE TECHNIQUE FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ON SUBWAY STATION CONSTRUCTION

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 599-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luyuan Wu ◽  
Haibo Bai ◽  
Chao Yuan ◽  
Changyu Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Weight Matrix ◽  
Subway Station ◽  
Total Risk

Risk assessment is critical for the construction of the subway station to improve the risk management and reduce the additional loss. According to field investigation of safe construction, the analytical network process (ANP), fuzzy set theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), a fuzzy ANP comprehensive evaluation (FANPCE) model was proposed to evaluate the risk of subway station construction in this paper. Twelve key risk factors of subway station construction were identified through literature review and questionnaires. The interdependency among risk factors were illustrated through the network structure of ANP, and then a weight matrix of single risk factors was built by comments and survey results, and the interdependent weight matrix was quantified by integrating the triangular fuzzy number into the ANP. Subsequently, the total risk rank of assessed projects can be quantified though the synthesis of weight matrices with the synthetic operator of FCE. Wu Lu Kou subway station was selected as a case study. The results imply that, construction experience, underground water, and safety consciousness have a substantial influence on construction projects and that the total construction risk of Wu Lu Kou subway station is ranked at I level. Moreover, the loss analysis of the whole construction process verifies this method. This research contributes to developing a FANPCE method to identify the risk factors with high weights, assess the risk rank of projects and appropriately respond to the results. In addition, the developed fuzzy set theory-ANP-FCE integrated network provides stakeholders a consolidated model for the risk evaluation.

Activity vulnerability index for delay risk forecasting

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (10) ◽  
pp. 1261-1270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungwuk Kim ◽  
Sangyoub Lee ◽  
Taehoon Hong ◽  
Seungwoo Han
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Construction Operations ◽  
Subjective Knowledge ◽  
Risk Forecasting ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Activity Criticality

The vulnerability of construction activities to delay factors controls the magnitude of the delay impact. Vulnerability characteristics of construction activities result in different patterns of duration variation. To identify the relationship between the delay factors and an activity's vulnerability, an activity vulnerability index was developed based on the subjective knowledge of experienced experts in construction operations. Incorporating the fuzzy set theory, the index provides not only information about the quantified vulnerability characteristics of an activity but also a reference for an activity criticality assessment. This study intends to suggest a framework for delay risk assessment and forecasting.Key words: construction delay, vulnerability index, fuzzy set theory.

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