Can machine learning improve carbon storage? Synergies of deep learning, uncertainty quantification and intelligent process control

As we transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy, negative emission technologies, such ascarbon capture and storage (CCS), can help us reduce CO2 emissions. Effective CO2 storage requires: (1) detailed site characterization, (2) regular, integrated risk assessment, and (3) flexible design and operation. We believe that recent advances in machine learning coupled with uncertainty quantification and intelligent process control help us with these task and thus im-prove the efficiency and safety of subsurface CO2 storage.

Assessing the introduction risk of vector-borne animal diseases for the Netherlands using MINTRISK: A Model for INTegrated RISK assessment

To evaluate and compare the risk of emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs), a Model for INTegrated RISK assessment, MINTRISK, was developed to assess the introduction risk of VBDs for new regions in an objective, transparent and repeatable manner. MINTRISK is a web-based calculation tool, that provides semi-quantitative risk scores that can be used for prioritization purposes. Input into MINTRISK is entered by answering questions regarding entry, transmission, establishment, spread, persistence and impact of a selected VBD. Answers can be chosen from qualitative answer categories with accompanying quantitative explanation to ensure consistent answering. The quantitative information is subsequently used as input for the model calculations to estimate the risk for each individual step in the model and for the summarizing output values (rate of introduction; epidemic size; overall risk). The risk assessor can indicate his uncertainty on each answer, and this is accounted for by Monte Carlo simulation. MINTRISK was used to assess the risk of four VBDs (African horse sickness, epizootic haemorrhagic disease, Rift Valley fever, and West Nile fever) for the Netherlands with the aim to prioritise these diseases for preparedness. Results indicated that the overall risk estimate was very high for all evaluated diseases but epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Uncertainty intervals were, however, wide limiting the options for ranking of the diseases. Risk profiles of the VBDs differed. Whereas all diseases were estimated to have a very high economic impact once introduced, the estimated introduction rates differed from low for Rift Valley fever and epizootic haemorrhagic disease to moderate for African horse sickness and very high for West Nile fever. Entry of infected mosquitoes on board of aircraft was deemed the most likely route of introduction for West Nile fever into the Netherlands, followed by entry of infected migratory birds.

An integrated safety implementation analysis based on risk assessment to enhance the safety engineering practice in the gas fields of Sylhet region, Bangladesh

The industrial sectors of Bangladesh mostly depend on the petroleum industry. Historically, risk and hazards are the common scenario in the petroleum industry occurring due to lack of efficient risk assessment, resulting in financial loss, injury, or harm for people, and the environment. To prevent these losses, it is essential to implement the best risk assessment plan.The objective of this research is toenhance the implementation of safety engineering systems in the petroleum industry through risk assessment. For this, purpose at first, the questionnaire survey for the perception of risk identification and safety system is performed to determine the current defects in the safety engineering system. Then, using SPSS software the risk analysis as well as ANOVA and reliability analysis of the collected data is accomplished to examine top risk factors. Concerning both interview and questionnaire analysis, an integrated risk assessment-based safety analysishas beenperformed to optimize the performance of the safety engineering system.The outcomes of this research expose the technical, procedural, and behavioral gap in the current risk assessment for the safe implementation of the safety engineering system of the petroleum industry of Bangladesh.

Lack of pro-arrhythmic potential for the novel soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator vericiguat: results from preclinical studies

Introduction Vericiguat is an orally-administered soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, developed for the treatment of symptomatic chronic heart failure (HF) in adult patients who have had a previous decompensation event. At the maximum therapeutic dose of 10 mg once daily in patients with HF, the protein-unbound plasma concentrations of vericiguat and its major pharmacologically inactive N-glucuronide metabolite M-1 are approximately 18 nmol/l and 43 nmol/l, respectively. As part of an integrated risk assessment, vericiguat and its M-1 metabolite were characterised electrophysiologically in vivo and in vitro. This was performed according to the International Council for Harmonisation standard S7B guideline and to recent related “best practice” revisions (draft ICH E14/S7B Q&A), being adopted as a result of the Comprehensive In Vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CIPA) initiative. Purpose To assess the potential for a proarrhythmic risk from vericiguat and its M-1 metabolite in a series of preclinical studies. Methods The potential for proarrhythmic risk was investigated in conscious telemetered dogs and in a series of in vitro electrophysiological studies, including mechanistic ion channel studies, using both generally accepted and CIPA voltage-clamp protocols under conditions simulating normal and diseased physiological states. The ion channels studied were hERG, hNav1.5, hCav1.2, hKvLQT1/minK and hKv4.3. Transfected human embryonic kidney cell lines were used for the hERG, hNav1.5 and hKvLQT1/minK studies; transfected Chinese hamster ovary cell lines were used for the hCav1.2 and hKv4.3 studies. Results In dogs, administration of vericiguat as single oral doses was associated with dose-dependent decreases in arterial blood pressure (consistent with its mode of action) and compensatory increases in heart rate (Table 1). Heart rate-corrected QT (QTc) intervals were not prolonged by vericiguat to a clinically meaningful extent. Neither vericiguat nor its M-1 metabolite inhibited cardiac ion channels (hERG, hNav1.5, hCav1.2, hKvLQT1/minK and hKv4.3) at exposure multiples of >150-fold (Table 2). Conclusion There was no preclinical evidence of proarrhythmic risk from the in vitro (simulating normal and diseased physiological states) and in vivo assessment of vericiguat or its major N-glucuronide metabolite M-1. This integrated risk assessment of non-clinical data supports the conclusion that administration of vericiguat 10 mg once daily in humans is not associated with meaningful QTc prolongation. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Funding for this research was provided by Bayer AG, Berlin, Germany and Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA.

Hydrogen Infrastructure Project Risks in The Netherlands

This study aims to assess the potential risks of setting up a hydrogen infrastructure in the Netherlands. An integrated risk assessment framework, capable of analyzing projects, identifying risks and comparing projects, is used to identify and analyze the main risks in the upcoming Dutch hydrogen infrastructure project. A time multiplier is added to the framework to develop parameters. The impact of the different risk categories provided by the integrated framework is calculated using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. Despite resource risks having the highest impact, scope risks are shown to be the most prominent in the hydrogen infrastructure project. To present the DCF model results, a risk assessment matrix is constructed. Compared to the conventional Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) used to present project risks, this matrix presents additional information in terms of the internal rate of return and risk specifics.

Application of a soil quality triad in assessing ecological risk posed to croplands

Healthy soil ecosystems fulfil multiple functions (e.g. cycling nutrients and controlling pests), which play an important role in sustainable food production. However, the application of polluted irrigation water poses a major risk to soil quality (health) and warrants investigation to ultimately inform decision-making. We hypothesised that the standardised soil quality TRIAD approach (ISO 19204), which integrates the chemistry, ecology, and ecotoxicology lines of evidence, can be used as part of an ecological risk assessment of cropland soils. To investigate the applicability of this approach in an agricultural setting, we collected soils from croplands associated with the Hartbeespoort and Crocodile (West) irrigation schemes, which utilise water known to be heavily impacted by anthropogenic (metal, nutrient, and salt) pollution. Croplands associated with the Marico-Bosveld Irrigation Scheme served as the reference systems. Data from the three lines of evidence were scaled, weighted, and integrated. Moderate risk was evidenced for nutrient and salt content in most croplands associated with the Hartbeespoort Irrigation Scheme. However, either no or low risk was recorded for the ecology and ecotoxicology lines of evidence. Finally, the integrated risk assessment concluded that only low ecological risk was posed to soil quality, likely as a result of agricultural activities (e.g. tillage and fertiliser application) that deteriorated soils also at the reference system. This study shows important limitations in the application of ecological risk assessments in conventionally farmed soils, but still holds promise for organic and conservation systems.