Coalitional Expected Multi‐Utility Theory

Econometrica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 933-980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuhiro Hara ◽  
Efe A. Ok ◽  
Gil Riella

This paper begins by observing that any reflexive binary (preference) relation (over risky prospects) that satisfies the independence axiom admits a form of expected utility representation. We refer to this representation notion as the coalitional minmax expected utility representation. By adding the remaining properties of the expected utility theorem, namely, continuity, completeness, and transitivity, one by one, we find how this representation gets sharper and sharper, thereby deducing the versions of this classical theorem in which any combination of these properties is dropped from its statement. This approach also allows us to weaken transitivity in this theorem, rather than eliminate it entirely, say, to quasitransitivity or acyclicity. Apart from providing a unified dissection of the expected utility theorem, these results are relevant for the growing literature on boundedly rational choice in which revealed preference relations often lack the properties of completeness and/or transitivity (but often satisfy the independence axiom). They are also especially suitable for the (yet overlooked) case in which the decision‐maker is made up of distinct individuals and, consequently, transitivity is routinely violated. Finally, and perhaps more importantly, we show that our representation theorems allow us to answer many economic questions that are posed in terms of nontransitive/incomplete preferences, say, about the maximization of preferences, the existence of Nash equilibrium, the preference for portfolio diversification, and the possibility of the preference reversal phenomenon.


2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 723-764
Author(s):  
Mamoru Kaneko

Abstract We reformulate expected utility theory, from the viewpoint of bounded rationality, by introducing probability grids and a cognitive bound; we restrict permissible probabilities only to decimal ($$\ell $$ ℓ -ary in general) fractions of finite depths up to a given cognitive bound. We distinguish between measurements of utilities from pure alternatives and their extensions to lotteries involving more risks. Our theory is constructive from the viewpoint of the decision maker. When a cognitive bound is small, the preference relation involves many incomparabilities, but these diminish as the cognitive bound is relaxed. Similarly, the EU hypothesis would hold more for a larger bound. The main part of the paper is a study of preferences including incomparabilities in cases with finite cognitive bounds; we give representation theorems in terms of a 2-dimensional vector-valued utility functions. We also exemplify the theory with one experimental result reported by Kahneman and Tversky.



2010 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Just ◽  
Hikaru Hanawa Peterson


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Ferrari-Toniolo ◽  
Leo Chi U Seak ◽  
Wolfram Schultz

Expected Utility Theory (EUT) provides axioms for maximizing utility in risky choice. The independence axiom (IA) is its most demanding axiom: preferences between two options should not change when altering both options equally by mixing them with a common gamble. We tested common consequence (CC) and common ratio (CR) violations of the IA in thousands of stochastic choice over several months using a large variety of binary option sets. Three monkeys showed few outright Preference Reversals (8%) but substantial graded Preference Changes (46%) between the initial preferred gamble and the corresponding altered gamble. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) indicated that gamble probabilities predicted most Preference Changes in CC (72%) and CR (87%) tests. The Akaike Information Criterion indicated that probability weighting within Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) explained choices better than models using Expected Value (EV) or EUT. Fitting by utility and probability weighting functions of CPT resulted in nonlinear and non-parallel indifference curves (IC) in the Marschak-Machina triangle and suggested IA non-compliance of models using EV or EUT. Indeed, CPT models predicted Preference Changes better than EV and EUT models. Indifference points in out-of-sample tests were closer to CPT-estimated ICs than EV and EUT ICs. Finally, while the few outright Preference Reversals may reflect the long experience of our monkeys, their more graded Preference Changes corresponded to those reported for humans. In benefitting from the wide testing possibilities in monkeys, our stringent axiomatic tests contribute critical information about risky decision-making and serves as basis for investigating neuronal decision mechanisms.



Author(s):  
Chunlai Zhou ◽  
Biao Qin ◽  
Xiaoyong Du

In this paper, we provide an axiomatic justification for decision making with belief functions by studying the belief-function counterpart of Savage's Theorem where the state space is finite and the consequence set is a continuum [l, M] (l<M). We propose six axioms for a preference relation over acts, and then show that this axiomatization admits a definition of qualitative belief functions comparing preferences over events that guarantees the existence of a belief function on the state space. The key axioms are uniformity and an analogue of the independence axiom. The uniformity axiom is used to ensure that all acts with the same maximal and minimal consequences must be equivalent. And our independence axiom shows the existence of a utility function and implies the uniqueness of the belief function on the state space. Moreover, we prove without the independence axiom the neutrality theorem that two acts are indifferent whenever they generate the same belief functions over consequences. At the end of the paper, we compare our approach with other related decision theories for belief functions.



Econometrica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 89 (4) ◽  
pp. 1633-1664
Author(s):  
Christopher P. Chambers ◽  
Federico Echenique ◽  
Nicolas S. Lambert

We study preferences estimated from finite choice experiments and provide sufficient conditions for convergence to a unique underlying “true” preference. Our conditions are weak and, therefore, valid in a wide range of economic environments. We develop applications to expected utility theory, choice over consumption bundles, and menu choice. Our framework unifies the revealed preference tradition with models that allow for errors.



2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-75
Author(s):  
Tapan Biswas

The axiomatic foundation of the expected utility theory (which states that given a set of uncertain prospects individuals pick up the prospect which yields the highest expected utility) was first laid down by Von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947). This axiom has come under severe criticisms in recent years. A large number of experiments have shown that in making decisions involving uncertain prospects people frequently violate the independence axiom. In this paper we shall consider the problem of choice under uncertainty from a wider point of view and we shall examine the nature of the restriction imposed by the axiom of independence. We shall use the mean-variance utility function to prove our point. Then we shall consider a weak version of the independence axiom namely the weak* axiom of independence. This is the point of departure from the expected utility theory to the realm of the non-expected utility theory. The weak* axiom allows aversion to pure uncertainty and, in the context of the mean-variance utility theory, it is compatible with utility being an increasing function of expected returns at all levels.





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