Methods of Forecasting Solar Radiation

Author(s):  
Rubita Sudirman ◽  
Muhammad Noorul Anam Mohd Norddin

Extreme demands on the methods used for forecasting solar radiation has been the driving force behind the efforts to find the best method available. An extensive study of different techniques available was conducted. Methods studied in this research can be classified as time series and neural network approach. Time series approaches considered are autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), autoregressive moving average (ARMA), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). In neural network approaches, multi-layer perceptron networks are used. The error back-propagation learning algorithm is utilized in the training process. Comparison of methods and performance of different methods are presented in the result and discussion section of this chapter. The solar radiation data used were a collection of past data acquired throughout the US continent for 10 years period. These data were used to forecast future solar radiation based on the past trend observed from the database using both time series and neural network approaches. Finally, this chapter makes general comparison among the methods used and outlines some advantages and disadvantages of using the neural network approach.

Author(s):  
Ian Flood ◽  
Kenneth Worley

AbstractThis paper proposes and evaluates a neural network-based method for simulating manufacturing processes that exhibit both noncontinuous and stochastic behavior processes more conventionally modeled, using discrete-event simulation algorithms. The incentive for developing the technique is its potential for rapid execution of a simulation through parallel processing, and facilitation of the development and improvement of models particularly where there is limited theory describing the dependence between component processes. A brief introduction is provided to a radial-Gaussian neural network architecture and training process, the system adopted for the work presented in this paper. A description of the basic approach proposed for applying this technology to simulation is then described. This involves the use of a modularized neural network approach to model construction and the prediction of the occurrence of events using information retained from several previous states of the simulation. A class of earth-moving systems, comprising a push-dozer and a fleet of scrapers, is used as the basis for assessing the viability and performance of the proposed approach. A series of experiments show the neural network to be capable of both capturing the characteristic behavior and making an accurate prediction of production rates of scraper-based earth-moving systems. The paper concludes with an indication of some areas for further development and evaluation of the technique.


2014 ◽  
pp. 30-34
Author(s):  
Vladimir Golovko

This paper discusses the neural network approach for computing of Lyapunov spectrum using one dimensional time series from unknown dynamical system. Such an approach is based on the reconstruction of attractor dynamics and applying of multilayer perceptron (MLP) for forecasting the next state of dynamical system from the previous one. It allows for evaluating the Lyapunov spectrum of unknown dynamical system accurately and efficiently only by using one observation. The results of experiments are discussed.


2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 842-857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Matthews ◽  
Jamie Daigle ◽  
Melissa Houston

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the linkages between leadership and satisfaction models with neural networks to epistemologically explore both the theoretical and practical basis of these paradigms to analyze the effect employee readiness has on job satisfaction. A review of the literature indicates an absence of a paradigmatic precursor to the satisfaction-performance dyadic. Revisiting theoretical frameworks builds a reconceptualized prism that amalgamates leadership and job satisfaction constituents to form a theoretical scaffold and linkage between employee readiness and job satisfaction. Design/methodology/approach Reviewing the literature explores a theoretical existence of a readiness model preceding the satisfaction-performance paradigm that measures how the amalgam of readiness variables affects job satisfaction. This conceived theory uses a unidirectional model that extends the linear progression and institutes a backwards propagation linkage to the satisfaction-performance linkage using the following unidirectional correlation: readiness-satisfaction→ satisfaction-performance. Using a neural network approach, a total of 160 companies are integrated into a simulation using leadership, satisfaction and readiness variables, with an emphasize on high relationship, to ascertain the effect of readiness on job satisfaction. Findings While there are studies that interchangeably link satisfaction and performance, revisiting the literature provides theoretical insight that validates the formation of a preceding construct that converges leadership and satisfaction constituencies to form a dyadic relationship between readiness and satisfaction. Research has tirelessly attempted to discover variable correlation between job performance and job satisfaction. However, these attempts are met with contradictory results. To truly link employee readiness to the job satisfaction/job performance dyad, a neural network is created, which deduces that random probabilities confirm the continuous exactitude of a positive correlation between readiness and job satisfaction. This, in turn, confirms an existent theoretical precursor to the satisfaction-performance paradigm. The implications of not linking job readiness to satisfaction and performance can potentially leave managers amiss when triangulating performance decline. Reclassifying the satisfaction-performance dyadic corroborates Judge et al.’s (2001) theory that reinventions of this impression should be researched, and Graen and Uhl-Bien’s (1991) conclusive remarks that an evaluation beyond “trait-like” individual differences of leaders is necessary to recognize the leadership paradigm loop, which is inclusive of the leader, the follower and the dyadic relationship. Originality/value This research paper is useful for practitioners and academics to refer as the comparative and intersecting explanation of leadership and job satisfaction models, as it peripherally conveys a legitimate view of a preceding relational construct that will add value to the relevance of employee readiness as it affects job satisfaction. In addition, the neural network approach is a sound and unique method to algorithmically validate the correlation between job satisfaction models and leadership. Through codifying, the environmental variables comprised Herzberg et al.’s (1959) motivation and hygiene factors that are directly related to a leader-member exchange function, an evidentiary linkage validates the literature works of Hersey and Blanchard (2001) and directly links it to job satisfaction precursors.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 146-159
Author(s):  
Murillo A. S. Torres ◽  
Mateus S. Marinho ◽  
Dany S. Dominguez ◽  
Dárcio R. Silva ◽  
Hélder Conceição Almeida

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