Financial Early Warning System for Risk Detection and Prevention from Financial Crisis

Data Mining ◽  
2013 ◽  
pp. 1559-1590
Author(s):  
Nermin Ozgulbas ◽  
Ali Serhan Koyuncugil
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Risk Detection ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Risk management has become a vital topic for all enterprises especially in financial crisis periods. All enterprises need systems to warn against risks, detect signs and prevent from financial distress. Before the global financial crisis that began 2008, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have already fought with important financial issues. The global financial crisis and the ensuring flight away from risk have affected SMEs more than larger enterprises When we consider these effects, besides the issues of poor business performance, insufficient information and insufficiencies of managers in finance education, it is clear that early warning systems (EWS) are vital for SMEs for detection risk and prevention from financial crisis. The aim of this study is to develop and present a financial EWS for risk detection via data mining. For this purpose, data of SMEs listed in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) Decision Tree Algorithm were used. By using EWS, we determined the risk profiles and risk signals for risk detection and road maps for risk prevention from financial crisis.

Financial Early Warning System for Risk Detection and Prevention from Financial Crisis

2011 ◽  
pp. 76-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nermin Ozgulbas ◽  
Ali Serhan Koyuncugil
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Risk Detection ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Risk management has become a vital topic for all enterprises especially in financial crisis periods. All enterprises need systems to warn against risks, detect signs and prevent from financial distress. Before the global financial crisis that began 2008, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have already fought with important financial issues. The global financial crisis and the ensuring flight away from risk have affected SMEs more than larger enterprises When we consider these effects, besides the issues of poor business performance, insufficient information and insufficiencies of managers in finance education, it is clear that early warning systems (EWS) are vital for SMEs for detection risk and prevention from financial crisis. The aim of this study is to develop and present a financial EWS for risk detection via data mining. For this purpose, data of SMEs listed in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) Decision Tree Algorithm were used. By using EWS, we determined the risk profiles and risk signals for risk detection and road maps for risk prevention from financial crisis.

Financial distress determinants among SMEs: empirical evidence from Sweden

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 547-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darush Yazdanfar ◽  
Peter Öhman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to empirically investigate determinants of financial distress among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) during the global financial crisis and post-crisis periods.Design/methodology/approachSeveral statistical methods, including multiple binary logistic regression, were used to analyse a longitudinal cross-sectional panel data set of 3,865 Swedish SMEs operating in five industries over the 2008–2015 period.FindingsThe results suggest that financial distress is influenced by macroeconomic conditions (i.e. the global financial crisis) and, in particular, by various firm-specific characteristics (i.e. performance, financial leverage and financial distress in previous year). However, firm size and industry affiliation have no significant relationship with financial distress.Research limitationsDue to data availability, this study is limited to a sample of Swedish SMEs in five industries covering eight years. Further research could examine the generalizability of these findings by investigating other firms operating in other industries and other countries.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine determinants of financial distress among SMEs operating in Sweden using data from a large-scale longitudinal cross-sectional database.

scholarly journals The Investment in Fixed Assets Before and After the Global Financial Crisis (Empirical Study for Industry and Investment Sector in Palestine Stock Exchange)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Tamer Bahjat Sabri
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Investment In Fixed Assets ◽  
Shed Light

This paper seeks to shed light on investment in fixed assets before and after the financial crisis that took place in 2008 and compare the two periods together in the sectors of industry and investment in Palestine Stock Exchange. The period between 2005 – 2007 was chosen to represent to the pre-crisis time and the period between 2010 -2012 was chosen to represent the post-crisis time. The population of the study consists of fifteen organizations from both sectors. To test the hypothesis of the study, the independent samples T-test was employed.The average ratio of fixed assets to the total assets of industry and investment rose from 56.2% before the crisis to 58.5% after the crisis. As for the hypotheses of the study, the findings showed no difference except for the seventh hypothesis. There was a statically significant difference in the ratio of fixed assets to equity between the listed companies that a high return on assets and those that have a low return.

scholarly journals The impact of operating leverage on the capital structure of Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed firms before and after the 2008 global financial crisis

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matabane T. Mohohlo ◽  
Johan H. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
South African ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Operating Leverage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Capital Structure

The financial leverage-operating leverage trade-off hypothesis states that as financial leverage increases, management of firms will seek to reduce the exposure to operating leverage in an attempt to balance the overall risk profile of a firm. It is the objective of this study to test this hypothesis and ascertain whether operating leverage can indeed be added to the list of factors that determine the capital structure of South African firms. Forty-six firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange between 1994 and 2015 are analysed and the impact of operating leverage is determined. The results are split into two periods, that is, the period before the global financial crisis (1994–2007) and after the global financial crisis (2008–2015). The impact of operating leverage during these two periods is then compared to determine whether a change in the impact of operating leverage on the capital structure can be observed especially following the crisis. The results show that the conservative nature of South African firms leading up to 2008 persisted even after the global financial crisis. At an industry level, the results reveal that operating leverage does not have a noticeable impact on capital structure with the exception of firms in the industrials sector of the South African economy.

Dating Banking and Currency Crises in Turkey, 1990-2014

2016 ◽  
pp. 240-273
Author(s):  
Ali Ari ◽  
Raif Cergibozan ◽  
Sedat Demir
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The last two decades characterized by financial crisis episodes have seen a proliferation of empirical studies. These early warning system models allowed researchers to distinguish certain key determinants of financial crises, and helped predicting and preventing the occurrence of some crises. However, crises continue to arise as recently illustrated by the onset of the global financial crisis. This clarifies that there are still a lot to learn about financial crises. In this sense, this paper aimed to compare the performance of several currency and banking crisis indicators within the Turkish economy which underwent severe financial crises in the last twenty years. Different currency crisis indicators performed well by detecting the 1994, 2001 and 2008 currency crises, while banking crisis indicators had significant inconsistencies. However, two banking crisis indicators we developed stand for valuable efforts in dating banking crises by constructing aggregate indexes, and contribute significantly to the empirical crisis literature.

scholarly journals Disclosure on Related Party Transactions: Evidence from Italian Listed Companies

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Bava ◽  
Melchiorre Gromis di Trana
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
New Economy ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
Regulatory Body ◽  
Related Party Transactions ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Fairness

AbstractRecent shortcomings in corporate affairs, related to the bursting of the New Economy Bubble and the global financial crisis, have forced regulators to strengthen current rules introducing new bans and requirements, aimed at guaranteeing the substantial and economic fairness of related party transactions (RPTs). In 2010 rules regarding RPTs were completely reshaped by the Italian Regulatory Body for the Italian Stock Exchange (CONSOB Regulation no. 17221). One of the most important amendments regarded the change in the criteria by which RPTs are mandatorily disclosed to investors. This change replaces a selection process based on a qualitative with a quantitative approach, in order to reduce the subjectivity of this particular evaluation. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of the disclosure of RPTs after the introduction of the new rules. Our results show that although the new rules contribute to increasing the amount of information disclosed to investors through a higher number of documents reported by companies, their percentage in relation to the overall amount is worryingly low.

scholarly journals The Effect of Leverage, Receivables Turn Over, Firm Size on Financial Performance at Automotive Companies Listed at the Indonesian Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1542-1546
Author(s):  
Thomas Sumarsan Goh ◽  
Melanthon Rumapea ◽  
Nagian Toni
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Turn Over

The global financial crisis that starting from end of 2019 until today and the trade war between China and United Stated has brought the effect to the slow down of Indonesian economic. The research aims at studying the effect of leverage, receivables turn over, firm size on financial performance at the automotive companies that have been listing at the Indonesian stock exchange, partially and simultaneously

scholarly journals The Integrated Measuring of Working Capital Management Efficiency on Financial Performance in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 26-33
Author(s):  
Petrus Emanuel De ◽  
Rina Indiastuti . ◽  
Erie Febrian .
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Chief Financial Officers ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Cash Conversion Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The purpose of this study is to determine the differences effect of working capital efficiency on financial performance during periods of crisis. The measurement is made during the crisis compared to the entire period of observation by using cash conversion cycle (CCC) and working capital policy (both investment policy and financing policy) on the profitability (by return on assets) and market value (by Tobin’s Q). Using all annual financial data of 104 manufacturing firms listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) over the period 2005-2013. These periods include the global financial crisis. The panel data set was developed for nine years, which produced 936 firms-years observations. This study uses multivariate regression models with hierarchical regression analysis approach. This approach uses the global financial crisis period as a dummy variable. The results showed that there were differences in the effect of the cash conversion cycle (and its components) and working capital policy on profitability during the crisis period compared to the whole period. In contrast, no differences effect the cash conversion cycle (and its components) and working capital policy on the value of the company in the crisis period compared to the whole period. The manufacturing industries do not apply the efficiency in the management of working capital. The global financial crisis tends the companies to change their working capital policy more efficiently. The researcher can extend this study by doing a qualitative research how to chief financial officers invest and finance day-by-day operation.

scholarly journals An Early Warning Signal (EWS) Model for Predicting Financial Crisis in Emerging African Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 101
Author(s):  
Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi ◽  
Devi Datt Tewari
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Early Warning Signal ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The devastating effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) have led to a renewed, global interest in the development of an early warning signal (EWS) model. The purpose of the EWS model is to alert policymakers and other stakeholders to the possibility of the occurrence of a crisis. This study estimates a EWS model for predicting the financial crisis in four emerging African economies using a multinomial logit model and a data set covering the period of January 1980 to December 2017. The result of the study suggests that emerging African economies are more likely to face financial crisis as debts continue to rise without a corresponding capacity to withstand capital flow reversal as well as excessive foreign exchange risk due to currency exposure. The result further indicates that rising debt exposure raises the likelihood of the economies remaining in a state of crisis. This result confirms the significance of a financial stability framework that addresses the issues confronting Africa’s emerging economies such as rising debt profile, liquidity and currency risk exposure.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document