Qualitative Modeling of Ice Sheet Accumulation for Identification of Mass Balance Variation

2018 ◽  
pp. 99-118
Author(s):  
Kirill Khvorostovsky ◽  
Pavel Lunev ◽  
Victoria Shterkhun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Qualitative Model ◽  
Qualitative Modeling ◽  
Formation And Evolution ◽  
Methods Of Measurement

Formation and evolution of ice sheets is one of the “hot” problems of modern geosciences, as it has direct implication on the issues of climate change and sea level rise. Different methods of measurement or computing the mass balance of modern ice sheets based on various physical models sometimes give conflicting results. To understand them, one should first reconcile the models they are based on. This, in turn, requires one to decipher the vision different researchers have on the generation and evolution of ice sheets. This vision is initially qualitative. Hence, a qualitative model is desired that would reconcile various, and sometimes conflicting, physical models. This chapter proposes this model.

Trends and projections in ice sheet mass balance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Shepherd ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Global Sea Level

<p>In recent decades, the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets have been major contributors to global sea-level rise and are expected to be so in the future. Although increases in glacier flow and surface melting have been driven by oceanic and atmospheric warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite records of changes in polar ice sheet volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of their mass balance. <strong>Since the early 1990’s, ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have caused global sea-levels to rise by 18.4 millimetres, on average, and there has been a sixfold increase in the volume of ice loss over time. Of this total, 41 % (7.6 millimetres) originates from Antarctica and 59 % (10.8 millimetres) is from Greenland. In this presentation, we compare our reconciled estimates of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass change to IPCC projection of sea level rise to assess the model skill in predicting changes in ice dynamics and surface mass balance.  </strong>Cumulative ice losses from both ice sheets have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario, which forecast an additional 170 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.</p>

Ice sheet mass balance and sea level

2009 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 413-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Allison ◽  
R.B. Alley ◽  
H.A. Fricker ◽  
R.H. Thomas ◽  
R.C. Warner
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Measurement Technology ◽  
Satellite Gravity ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ice Sheet Mass Balance

AbstractDetermining the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS) has long been a major challenge for polar science. But until recent advances in measurement technology, the uncertainty in ice sheet mass balance estimates was greater than any net contribution to sea level change. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4) was able, for the first time, to conclude that, taken together, the GIS and AIS have probably been contributing to sea level rise over the period 1993–2003 at an average rate estimated at 0.4 mm yr-1. Since the cut-off date for work included in AR4, a number of further studies of the mass balance of GIS and AIS have been made using satellite altimetry, satellite gravity measurements and estimates of mass influx and discharge using a variety of techniques. Overall, these studies reinforce the conclusion that the ice sheets are contributing to present sea level rise, and suggest that the rate of loss from GIS has recently increased. The largest unknown in the projections of sea level rise over the next century is the potential for rapid dynamic collapse of ice sheets.

scholarly journals A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Perrette ◽  
F. Landerer ◽  
R. Riva ◽  
K. Frieler ◽  
M. Meinshausen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR) remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011). Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6) with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%). Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

scholarly journals Change in mass balance of polar ice sheets and sea level from high-resolution GCM simulations of greenhouse warming

2000 ◽  
Vol 30 ◽  
pp. 197-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Wild ◽  
Atsumu Ohmura
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
And Sea Level

AbstractFor projecting future sea level, the mass-balance changes on Greenland and Antarctica are considered to be crucial. Promising tools for such estimates are general circulation models (GCM). Until recently, a major impediment was their coarse grid resolution (3°-6°) causing substantial uncertainties in the mass-balance calculations of the poorly resolved ice sheets. The present study is based on a new climate-change experiment of the highest resolution currently feasible (1.1 °) performed with the ECHAM4 T106 GCM, thereby increasing confidence in the projected mass-balance and sea-level changes. This new experiment, with doubled CO2 concentration, suggests that the mass gain in Antarctica due to increased accumulation exceeds the melt-induced mass loss in Greenland by a factor of three. The resulting mass-balance change on both ice sheets is equivalent to a net sea-level decrease of 0.6 mm a"1 under doubled CO2 conditions. This may compensate for a significant portion of the melt-induced sea-level rise from the smaller glaciers and ice caps, thus leaving thermal expansion as the dominant factor for sea-level rise over the next decades. This compensating effect, however, no longer applies should atmospheric CO2 concentration reach levels well above "doubled the present value". On the contrary, under these conditions, the greenhouse warming would become large enough to induce substantial melting also on the Antarctic ice sheet, thereby significantly accelerating global sea-level rise.

scholarly journals Uncertainties and re-analysis of glacier mass balance measurements

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 789-839 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Zemp ◽  
E. Thibert ◽  
M. Huss ◽  
D. Stumm ◽  
C. Rolstad Denby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Quality ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Error Estimation ◽  
Standard Procedure ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates

Abstract. Glacier-wide mass balance has been measured for more than sixty years and is widely used as an indicator of climate change and to assess the glacier contribution to runoff and sea level rise. Until present, comprehensive uncertainty assessments have rarely been carried out and mass balance data have often been applied using rough error estimation or without error considerations. In this study, we propose a framework for re-analyzing glacier mass balance series including conceptual and statistical toolsets for assessment of random and systematic errors as well as for validation and calibration (if necessary) of the glaciological with the geodetic balance results. We demonstrate the usefulness and limitations of the proposed scheme drawing on an analysis that comprises over 50 recording periods for a dozen glaciers and we make recommendations to investigators and users of glacier mass balance data. Reanalysis of glacier mass balance series needs to become a standard procedure for every monitoring programme to improve data quality and provide thorough uncertainty estimates.

Quantifying ambiguity in sea-level projections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Goneri Le Cozannet ◽  
Jeremy Rohmer ◽  
Jean-Charles Manceau ◽  
Gael Durand ◽  
Catherine Ritz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Probabilistic Measure ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Coastal Impacts ◽  
Regional Sea Level

<p>Coastal impacts of climate change and the related mitigation and adaptation needs requires assessments of future sea-level changes. Following a common practice in coastal engineering, probabilistic sea-level projections have been proposed for at least 20 years. This requires a probability model to represent the uncertainties of future sea-level rise, which is not achievable because potential ice sheets mass losses remain poorly understood given the knowledge available today. Here, we apply the principles of extra-probabilistic theories of uncertainties to generate global and regional sea-level projections based on uncertain components. This approach assigns an imprecision to a probabilistic measure, in order to quantify lack of knowledge pertaining to probabilistic projections. This can serve to understand, analyze and communicate uncertainties due to the coexistence of different processes contributing to future sea-level rise, including ice-sheets. We show that the knowledge gained since the 5th Assessment report of the IPCC allows better quantification of how global and regional sea-level rise uncertainties can be reduced with lower greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, Europe and Northern America are among those profiting most from a policy limiting climate change to RCP 2.6 versus RCP 4.5 in terms of reducing uncertainties of sea-level rise.</p>

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

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