scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

The Bramble Cay melomys Melomys rubicola (Rodentia : Muridae): a first mammalian extinction caused by human-induced climate change?

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie L. Waller ◽  
Ian C. Gynther ◽  
Alastair B. Freeman ◽  
Tyrone H. Lavery ◽  
Luke K.-P. Leung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Captive Breeding ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Food Resource ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change

Aims Sea-level rise is one of the most certain consequences of global warming and is predicted to exert significant adverse effects on wildlife in coastal habitats worldwide. Terrestrial fauna inhabiting low-lying islands are likely to suffer the greatest loss to habitat from sea-level rise and other oceanographic impacts stemming from anthropogenic climate change. Bramble Cay (Maizab Kaur), an ~4ha, low elevation sand cay located in Torres Strait, Australia, supports the only known population of the endangered Bramble Cay melomys Melomys rubicola Thomas, 1924. As a result of a decline in this population noted during previous monitoring to 2004, habitat loss due to erosion of the cay and direct mortality from storm surges were implicated as major threats to this species. This study aimed to confirm the current conservation status of the species, to seek information about the key factor or factors responsible for the population decline and to recover any remaining individuals for a captive insurance population. Methods During three survey periods (December 2011, March 2014 and August–September 2014), a total of 1170 small mammal trap-nights, 60 camera trap-nights, 5h of nocturnal searches and 5h of diurnal searches were undertaken on Bramble Cay. Key results All three survey periods failed to detect any Bramble Cay melomys. The island had experienced a recent, severe reduction in vegetation, which is the primary food resource for the Bramble Cay melomys. Herbaceous cover on the cay decreased from 2.16ha in 2004 to 0.065ha in March 2014 before recovering somewhat to 0.19ha in August–September 2014. Conclusions These results demonstrate that this rodent species has now been extirpated on Bramble Cay. The vegetation decline was probably due to ocean inundation resulting from an increased frequency and intensity of weather events producing extreme high water levels and storm surges, in turn caused by anthropogenic climate change. Implications The loss of the Bramble Cay melomys from Bramble Cay probably represents the first documented mammalian extinction due to human-induced climate change. This event highlights the immediate need to mitigate predicted impacts of sea-level rise and ocean inundation on other vulnerable species occurring on low lying islands and in susceptible coastal zones through captive breeding and reintroduction or other targeted measures.

scholarly journals Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

The Impact of Climate Change on States

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 115-132
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kułaga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Law ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Fundamental Change ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The increase in sea levels, as a result of climate change in territorial aspect will have a potential impact on two major issues – maritime zones and land territory. The latter goes into the heart of the theory of the state in international law as it requires us to confront the problem of complete and permanent disappearance of a State territory. When studying these processes, one should take into account the fundamental lack of appropriate precedents and analogies in international law, especially in the context of the extinction of the state, which could be used for guidance in this respect. The article analyses sea level rise impact on baselines and agreed maritime boundaries (in particular taking into account fundamental change of circumstances rule). Furthermore, the issue of submergence of the entire territory of a State is discussed taking into account the presumption of statehood, past examples of extinction of states and the importance of recognition in this respect.

Modelling the climate change impact on the largest White Sea estuarine areas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evgeniya Panchenko ◽  
Andrei Alabyan ◽  
Inna Krylenko ◽  
Serafima Lebedeva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
White Sea ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Hydrodynamic Modelling ◽  
The White Sea ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Flow Velocities

<p>Possible sea level rise and changes in hydrological regime of rivers are the major threats to estuarine systems. The sensibility of hydrodynamic regime of the Northern Dvina delta and the Onega estuary under various scenarios of climate change has been investigated. Hydrodynamic models HEC-RAS (USA, US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center) and STREAM_2D (Russia, authors V.Belikov et.al.) were used for analysis of estuarine flow regime (variations of water levels, discharges and flow velocities throughout tidal cycles). Input runoff changes were simulated for different climate scenarios using ECOMAG model (Russia, author Yu.Motovilov) based on data of global climate models (GSM) of CMIP5 project for the White Sea region.</p><p>ECOMAG modelling has demonstrated that the maximum river discharges averaged for 30-year period 2036 – 2065 can reduce for about 20 – 27% for the Onega and 15 – 20% for the Northern Dvina river compared against the historical period 1971 – 2000.Averaged minimum river discharges can reduce for about 33 – 45% for the Onega and 30 – 40% for the Northern Dvina.</p><p>The White Sea level rise by 0.27 m in average (with inter-model variation from 0.20 to 0.38 m) can took place by the middle of the XXI century according to input data of GSM models. The 12 scenarios of estuarine hydrodynamic changes were simulated for the both rivers based on combining river runoff changes and sea level elevation.</p><p>In general, the expected flow changes are negative for the local industry and population. According to modelling results for ‘high runoff/spring tide’ scenarios the flooding area in the Northern Dvina delta will increase by 13-20% depending on the intensity of sea level rise. In the low water seasons the distance from the river mouth to the upper boundary of the reach, where reverse currents can be observed, will move upstream by 8 - 36 km depending of sea/river conditions due to decrease in minimum river runoff. It may adversely effect on shipping conditions at the city of Arkhangelsk and on brackish water intrusion up-to industrial and communal water intakes.</p><p>The reverse currents also will intensify in the Onega estuary (tidal flow velocities increase for 11 – 19%) that leads to the change of the sediment regime and can significantly deteriorate the navigation conditions at the seaport of the Onega town. The problem of the intensification of salt intrusion can arise there as well.</p><p>The research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 18- 05-60021 in development of the scenarios; No. 19-35-90032 in providing hydrodynamic modelling of the Onega; Project No. 19-35-60032 in providing hydrodynamic modelling of the Northern Dvina).</p>

Supporting European coastal sectors to adapt to changes in extreme sea levels with climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanne Muis ◽  
Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea ◽  
Job Dullaart ◽  
Joao de Lima Rego ◽  
Kristine S. Madsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels

<p>Climate change will lead to increases in the flood risk in low-lying coastal areas. Understanding the magnitude and impact of such changes is vital to design adaptive strategies and create awareness. In  the  context  of  the  CoDEC  project  (Coastal  Dataset  for  Evaluation  of  Climate  impact),  we  developed a consistent European dataset of extreme sea levels, including climatic changes from 1979 to 2100. To simulate extreme sea levels, we apply the Global Tide and Surge Model v3.0 (GTSMv3.0), a 2D hydrodynamic model with global coverage. GTSM has a coastal resolution of 2.5 km globally and 1.25 km in Europe, and incorporates dynamic interactions between sea-level  rise,  tides  and  storm surges. Validation of the dataset shows a good performance with a mean bias of 0-.04 m for the 1 in 10-year water levels. When analyzing changes in extreme sea levels for the future climate scenarios, it is projected that by the end of the century the 1 in 10-year water levels are likely to increase up to 0.5 m. This change is largely driven by the increase in mean sea levels, although locally changes in storms surge and interaction with tides can amplify the impacts of sea-level rise with changes up to 0.2 m in the 1 in 10-year water level.</p><p>The CoDEC dataset will be made accessible through a web portal on Copernicus Climate Data Store (C3S). The dataset includes a set of Climate Impact Indicators (CII’s) and new tools designed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on different sectors and industries. This data service will support European coastal sectors to adapt to changes in sea levels associated with climate change. In this presentation we will also demonstrate how the C3S coastal service can be used to enhance the understanding of local climate impacts.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the extreme risk of coastal inundation due to climate change: A case study of Rongcheng, China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiqing Feng ◽  
Jiangbo Gao ◽  
Shaohong Wu ◽  
Yanzhong Li ◽  
Xiliu Yue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Extreme Risk ◽  
Extreme Flood

Abstract. Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. Given the ongoing climate change, this study explored the risk of future sea-level rise on the extreme inundation by combining P-III model and losses assessment model. Taking Rongcheng as a case study, the integrated risk of extreme water levels was assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios of 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicated that the increase in total direct losses would reach an average of 60 % in 2100 as a 0.82 m sea-level rise under RCP 8.5. In addition, affected population would be increased by 4.95 % to 13.87 % and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would be increased by 3.66 % to 10.95 % in 2050 while the augment of affected population and GDP in 2100 would be as twice as in 2050. Residential land and farmland would be under greater flooding risk in terms of the higher exposure and losses than other land-use types. Moreover, this study indicated that sea-level rise shortened the recurrence period of extreme water levels significantly and extreme events would become common. Consequently, the increase in frequency and possible losses of extreme flood events suggested that sea-level rise was very likely to exacerbate the extreme risk of coastal zone in future.

scholarly journals The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Urban Properties in Tampa Due to Climate Change

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Weiwei Xie ◽  
Bo Tang ◽  
Qingmin Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Altimeter Data ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The Impact

Fast urbanization produces a large and growing population in coastal areas. However, the increasing rise in sea levels, one of the most impacts of global warming, makes coastal communities much more vulnerable to flooding than before. While most existing work focuses on understanding the large-scale impacts of sea-level rise, this paper investigates parcel-level property impacts, using a specific coastal city, Tampa, Florida, USA, as an empirical study. This research adopts a spatial-temporal analysis method to identify locations of flooded properties and their costs over a future period. A corrected sea-level rise model based on satellite altimeter data is first used to predict future global mean sea levels. Based on high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation data and property maps, properties to be flooded are identified to evaluate property damage cost. This empirical analysis provides deep understanding of potential flooding risks for individual properties with detailed spatial information, including residential, commercial, industrial, agriculture, and governmental buildings, at a fine spatial scale under three different levels of global warming. The flooded property maps not only help residents to choose location of their properties, but also enable local governments to prevent potential sea-level rising risks for better urban planning. Both spatial and temporal analyses can be easily applied by researchers or governments to other coastal cities for sea-level rise- and climate change-related urban planning and management.

scholarly journals Rising Sea Levels Bring a Tidal Change to Tourism

Eos ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Sima
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
Tidal Change

A series of industry posters reimagines iconic locales in light of sea level rise and issues a call for action against climate change.

scholarly journals Public priorities on locally-driven sea level rise planning on the East Coast of the United States

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e9044
Author(s):  
Adam T. Carpenter
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Saltwater Intrusion ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Local Planning ◽  
Public Officials ◽  
Key Aspects

Sea level rise poses a substantial concern to communities worldwide. Increased inundation, storm surge, saltwater intrusion, and other impacts create challenges which will require considerable planning to address. Recognizing the broad and differing scope of sea level rise issues and the variability of policy options to address them, local planning frameworks are necessary in addition to tools and resources available from state and federal governments. To help assess priorities and preferences on sea level rise planning, a survey of 503 persons affiliated with coastal communities on the East Coast of the United States was conducted in December 2017. This survey studied key aspects locally-driven sea level rise plans, including planning priorities, funding options, methods to resolve conflict, and potential responses. Six key findings address these and other concerns to provide the foundation of a locally driven framework for public officials.

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