Black-Necked Swans and Active Risk Management

2011 ◽  
pp. 64-74
Author(s):  
Tze Leung Lai ◽  
Bo Shen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Detection Systems ◽  
Black Swans ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Close Relatives

This chapter gives a review of recent developments in sequential surveillance and modeling of default probabilities of corporate and retail loans, and relates them to the development of early warning or quick detection systems for managing the risk associated with the so-called “black swans” or their close relatives, the black-necked swans.

An Integrated Systems Approach for Early Warning and Risk Management Systems

2012 ◽  
pp. 55-65
Author(s):  
Walter Hürster ◽  
Thomas Wilbois ◽  
Fernando Chaves
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Environmental Monitoring ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Integrated Systems ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Monitoring And Surveillance

An integrated and interdisciplinary approach to Early Warning and Risk Management is described in this paper as well as the general technical implementation of Early Warning and Risk Management Systems. Based on this systems approach, a concept has been developed for the design of an Integrated System for Coastal Protection. In addition to this, as a prototype implementation of a modern environmental monitoring and surveillance system, a system for the Remote Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plants is presented here in more detail, including a Web Portal to allow for public access. The concept, the architectural design and the user interface of Early Warning and Risk Management Systems have to meet high demands. It is shown that only a close cooperation of all related disciplines and an integrated systems approach is able to fulfil the catalogue of requirements and to provide a suitable solution for environmental monitoring and surveillance, for early warning and for emergency management.

Holistic View on Unknown Unknowns in Project Risk Management

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Y.G. Raydugin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management System ◽  
Project Development ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
Four Dimensions ◽  
Black Swans ◽  
Risk Management System ◽  
Schedule Risk

The overall value of any risk management system could be qualitatively assessed by its capability to identify and manage relevant risks. This actually means that its value is reciprocal to the relevant risks it fails to identify (unknown unknowns). This chapter outlines comprehensive thinking processes and comes up with practical recipes on dealing with unknown unknowns, including handling unknown unknowns in probabilistic cost and schedule risk models. Four dimensions of unknown unknowns are discussed: novelty of a project, phase of project development, type of industry, and various types of psychological and organizational bias. “Regular” and “Supercritical” categories are introduced to further discuss various realizations of unknown unknowns such as “broiler black swans,” “game changers,” “show stoppers,” “corporate risks,” etc.

Social Media Analytics for Maintaining Financial Stability

2019 ◽  
pp. 219-242
Author(s):  
Sebin B. Nidhiri ◽  
Sakshi Saxena
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Social Media Analytics ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Dynamic Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Recent Developments

Risk and uncertainty are disliked but inevitable. The nature of these has changed and new sources of risk have risen. To mitigate risk and maintain financial stability, the firms need to adapt. The world wide web and, within it, social media have had tremendous growth and wide coverage lately, making them determining forces in any economic activity. This has led to generation of large amount of data on myriad concerns. Recent developments in computing technology has thrown open the possibility of mining useful information from the enormous and dynamic data. The chapter outlines the growth of social media and social media analytics and its financial implications to businesses, consumers, and governments. It details how risk management and social media, two domains earlier considered more diverged than chalk and cheese are now inextricably linked and explains using various cases how social media analytics is used to manage risk and uncertainty. The authors also look at the emerging challenges with these developments.

An Integrated Systems Approach for Early Warning and Risk Management Systems

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 46-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Hürster ◽  
Thomas Wilbois ◽  
Fernando Chaves
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Environmental Monitoring ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Integrated Systems ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Monitoring And Surveillance

An integrated and interdisciplinary approach to Early Warning and Risk Management is described in this paper as well as the general technical implementation of Early Warning and Risk Management Systems. Based on this systems approach, a concept has been developed for the design of an Integrated System for Coastal Protection. In addition to this, as a prototype implementation of a modern environmental monitoring and surveillance system, a system for the Remote Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plants is presented here in more detail, including a Web Portal to allow for public access. The concept, the architectural design and the user interface of Early Warning and Risk Management Systems have to meet high demands. It is shown that only a close cooperation of all related disciplines and an integrated systems approach is able to fulfil the catalogue of requirements and to provide a suitable solution for environmental monitoring and surveillance, for early warning and for emergency management.

Early Warning System for SMEs as a Financial Risk Detector

2009 ◽  
pp. 220-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Serhan Koyuncugil
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Effect Level

This chapter introduces an early warning system for SMEs (SEWS) as a financial risk detector which is based on data mining. In this study, the objective is to compose a system in which qualitative and quantitative data about the requirements of enterprises are taken into consideration, during the development of an early warning system. Furthermore, during the formation of system; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. Using the system, SME managers could easily reach financial management, risk management knowledge without any prior knowledge and expertise. In other words, experts share their knowledge with the help of data mining based and automated EWS.

scholarly journals Early warning system on extreme weather events for disaster risk reduction

2019 ◽  
pp. 80-87
Author(s):  
Jacipt Alexander Ramón-Valencia ◽  
Jordi Rafael Palacios-González ◽  
Germán Rircardo Santos-Granados ◽  
Jarol Derley Ramón-Valencia
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

The objective of this research was to propose a strategy based on the design and implementation of an early warning system (EWS) for extreme weather events. This project had the following phases: training for municipal and regional actors, preliminary technical diagnosis of the study areas, monitoring network, and the weather forecasts using numerical models WRF and GFS. This EWS is the result of the Macro-project EWS for Climate Events in the basins of the Pamplonita River and Zulia in the North of Santander (SATC), executed by the University of Pamplona and financed by the National Risk Management Unit (UNGRD) and the German Cooperation Agency (GIZ). The research concluded that the application of a disaster risk reduction strategy through an EWS for extreme weather events is an important tool and instrument for the planning of higher risk management because it helps anticipate disasters and consequently preserve lives.

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