Introduction: Black Swans and Sinatra Inferences

Public mismanagement as a threat to life and limb is a rare and highly improbable phenomenon—the proverbial Black Swan. Bridges and buildings collapse, claiming the lives of people who had every reason to believe that governmental agencies protect their physical integrity through public oversight and maintenance. Properly analyzed, however, these unlikely events reveal causal mechanisms of a general nature, strong enough to trigger fateful mismanagement even under the restrictive conditions of professional bureaucracies and democratic government. Hence the “Sinatra Inference”: When a mechanism is powerful enough ‘to make it there’—i.e., where causal leverage is supposedly low—it is likely to ‘make it everywhere’ as soon as leverage is enlarged by weaker accountability structures, lower professional standards and lesser values than human safety.

Can the “VUCA Meter” Augment the Traditional Project Risk Identification Process? A Case Study

In this rapidly changing and fast-growing world, sustainability is an important paradigm. However, the constantly growing level of uncertainty leads to increased strain in decision making. This results in a growing need for a more effective and extensive approach for identifying project risk in particular events that are not easily detected but can have a severe impact, sometimes referred to as Black Swans or “fat tail” events. The VUCA meter is a normative approach to identify project risk by assessing in a structured way events that may be volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous and might contribute to the project risk. In this study, the VUCA meter is benchmarked against a traditional risk identification process as recommended by PMI®. Firstly, two workshops, each referring to the respective risk identification method, were conducted. Secondly, a Delphi survey was run to investigate if the VUCA meter would capture Black Swan risk events that are bypassed by the traditional risk identification approach. The results clearly indicate that the VUCA meter can be developed to be a significant addition to the conventional risk identification process for large projects that are at an early stage. The VUCA meter facilitates a discussion that gets people to think beyond the traditional framework for identifying project risk factors. As a consequence, “fat tail” events, that are not apprehended with the conventional technique, are captured by the VUCA meter.

Aspects of the Feeding Ecology of Mallard and Black Swan in a Small Freshwater Lake

<p>Section 1. Limnological and waterfowl food supply characteristics of Pukepuke Lagoon are described. Emphasis is placed on describing how the balance between macrophytes and phytoplankton is established (these two forms of vegetation tend to dominate alternately in the lagoon). The question of whether heavy swan grazing may potentially shift this balance in favour of phytoplankton dominance is examined. Section 2. The year-round patterns of feeding exhibited by mallards are described on the basis of scan counts taken at one or two-hourly intervals from dawn to dusk. These feeding patterns, graphically depicted, are then interpreted and discussed against the background of what is known of the food content of the lagoon. Reference is made to the behavioural and physiological adaptability of the birds, and to the reserve capacity of the wetland complex - not just Pukepuke Lagoon - to sustain them. The relevance of these findings and interpretations, to New Zealand in general is discussed. Section 3. An hypothesis is developed to account for the way in which black swans use various waters in the Pukepuke-centred wetland complex.</p>

Aspects of the Feeding Ecology of Mallard and Black Swan in a Small Freshwater Lake

<p>Section 1. Limnological and waterfowl food supply characteristics of Pukepuke Lagoon are described. Emphasis is placed on describing how the balance between macrophytes and phytoplankton is established (these two forms of vegetation tend to dominate alternately in the lagoon). The question of whether heavy swan grazing may potentially shift this balance in favour of phytoplankton dominance is examined. Section 2. The year-round patterns of feeding exhibited by mallards are described on the basis of scan counts taken at one or two-hourly intervals from dawn to dusk. These feeding patterns, graphically depicted, are then interpreted and discussed against the background of what is known of the food content of the lagoon. Reference is made to the behavioural and physiological adaptability of the birds, and to the reserve capacity of the wetland complex - not just Pukepuke Lagoon - to sustain them. The relevance of these findings and interpretations, to New Zealand in general is discussed. Section 3. An hypothesis is developed to account for the way in which black swans use various waters in the Pukepuke-centred wetland complex.</p>

Decision-Making in Rats is Sensitive to Rare and Extreme Events: the Black Swan Avoidance

Most studies assessing decision-making under uncertainty use events with probabilities that are above 10-20 %. Here, to study decision-making in radical uncertainty conditions, Degoulet, Willem, Baunez, Luchini and Pintus provide a novel experimental design that aims at measuring the extent to which rats are sensitive - and how they respond - to extremely rare (below 1% of probability) but extreme events in a four-armed bandit task. Gains (sugar pellets) and losses (time-out punishments) are such that large - but rare - values materialize or not depending on the option chosen. The results show that all rats diversify their choices across options. However, most rats exhibit sensitivity to rare and extreme events despite their sparse occurrence, by combining more often options with extreme gains (Jackpots) and/or avoidance of extreme losses (Black Swans). In general, most rats choices feature one-sided sensitivity in favor of trying more often to avoid extreme losses than to seek extreme gains - that is, they feature Black Swan Avoidance.