Stochastic Evaluation of Capacity and Demand Management of the Airline Industry

2021 ◽  
pp. 85-106
Author(s):  
Yohannes Yebabe Tesfay
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Airline Industry ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Load Factor ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Periodic Autocorrelation ◽  
Dynamic Time

In the airline industry, the term load factor defined as the percentage of seats filled by revenue passengers and is used to measure efficiency and performance. This metric evaluates the airlines capacity and demand management. This paper applies stochastic models to analyse the load factor of the Association European Airlines (AEA) for flights of Europe - North Africa and Europe- Sub Saharan Africa. The estimation result prevails that the airlines have better demand management in the flights of Europe- Sub Saharan Africa than in the flight of Europe - North Africa. However, the capacity management of the airlines is poor for both regional flights. The autocorrelation structures for the load factor for both regional flights have both periodic and serial correlations. Consequently, the use of ordinal panel data models is inappropriate to capture the necessary variation of the load factor of the regional flights. Therefore, in order to control for the periodic autocorrelation, the author introduces dynamic time effects panel data regression model. Furthermore, in order to eliminate serial correlation the author applies the Prais–Winsten methodology to fit the model. Finally, the author builds realistic and robust forecasting model of the load factor of the Europe- North Africa and Europe-Sub Saharan Africa flights.

Stochastic Evaluation of Capacity and Demand Management of the Airline Industry

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohannes Yebabe Tesfay
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Airline Industry ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Load Factor ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Periodic Autocorrelation ◽  
Dynamic Time

In the airline industry, the term load factor defined as the percentage of seats filled by revenue passengers and is used to measure efficiency and performance. This metric evaluates the airlines capacity and demand management. This paper applies stochastic models to analyse the load factor of the Association European Airlines (AEA) for flights of Europe - North Africa and Europe- Sub Saharan Africa. The estimation result prevails that the airlines have better demand management in the flights of Europe- Sub Saharan Africa than in the flight of Europe - North Africa. However, the capacity management of the airlines is poor for both regional flights. The autocorrelation structures for the load factor for both regional flights have both periodic and serial correlations. Consequently, the use of ordinal panel data models is inappropriate to capture the necessary variation of the load factor of the regional flights. Therefore, in order to control for the periodic autocorrelation, the author introduces dynamic time effects panel data regression model. Furthermore, in order to eliminate serial correlation the author applies the Prais–Winsten methodology to fit the model. Finally, the author builds realistic and robust forecasting model of the load factor of the Europe- North Africa and Europe-Sub Saharan Africa flights.

How does primary, secondary and tertiary education affect global terrorism? Fresh evidence with international panel data

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 139-150
Author(s):  
Sheraz Mustafa Rajput
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
South Asia ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Secondary Level ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Different Levels

Purpose This paper aims to assess the effects of different levels of education, namely, primary, secondary and tertiary, on global terrorism, measured by incidence of global terrorism. Design/methodology/approach Based on annual panel data covering 120 countries from 1990 to 2017, zero-inflated negative binomial regression (NBR) model is applied to estimate relationship between education and terrorism. Findings The findings reveal that higher attainment of education at primary and secondary level lowers terrorism worldwide. The findings strongly hold across the most affected regions of the world including Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe. Drawing a comparison between the OECD and non-OECD countries, the results are substantially supported throughout. Research limitations/implications This study highlights the significance of education, at least up to secondary level, as an effective measure to reduce the extent of terrorist activities worldwide. Apart from this, more focus on education is recommended across the most affected regions (Middle East and North Africa, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa), specifically and the world, generally. Furthermore, as this study focuses at macro level, the future research may focus on factors enforcing individuals to resort to terrorism at individual and group level. Originality/value Unlike previous studies, this study contributes to existing literature through investigating the impact of terrorism at different levels of education.

scholarly journals Gestational weight gain in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling analysis using nationally representative data

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. e003423
Author(s):  
Dongqing Wang ◽  
Molin Wang ◽  
Anne Marie Darling ◽  
Nandita Perumal ◽  
Enju Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weight Gain ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Gestational Weight ◽  
Latin America And Caribbean ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Sub Saharan

IntroductionGestational weight gain (GWG) has important implications for maternal and child health and is an ideal modifiable factor for preconceptional and antenatal care. However, the average levels of GWG across all low-income and middle-income countries of the world have not been characterised using nationally representative data.MethodsGWG estimates across time were computed using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program. A hierarchical model was developed to estimate the mean total GWG in the year 2015 for all countries to facilitate cross-country comparison. Year and country-level covariates were used as predictors, and variable selection was guided by the model fit. The final model included year (restricted cubic splines), geographical super-region (as defined by the Global Burden of Disease Study), mean adult female body mass index, gross domestic product per capita and total fertility rate. Uncertainty ranges (URs) were generated using non-parametric bootstrapping and a multiple imputation approach. Estimates were also computed for each super-region and region.ResultsLatin America and Caribbean (11.80 kg (95% UR: 6.18, 17.41)) and Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia (11.19 kg (95% UR: 6.16, 16.21)) were the super-regions with the highest GWG estimates in 2015. Sub-Saharan Africa (6.64 kg (95% UR: 3.39, 9.88)) and North Africa and Middle East (6.80 kg (95% UR: 3.17, 10.43)) were the super-regions with the lowest estimates in 2015. With the exception of Latin America and Caribbean, all super-regions were below the minimum GWG recommendation for normal-weight women, with Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa and Middle East estimated to meet less than 60% of the minimum recommendation.ConclusionThe levels of GWG are inadequate in most low-income and middle-income countries and regions. Longitudinal monitoring systems and population-based interventions are crucial to combat inadequate GWG in low-income and middle-income countries.

scholarly journals The Nexus between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Developing Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 489
Author(s):  
E. M. Ekanayake ◽  
Ranjini Thaver
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Sub Saharan

The objective of this study is to investigate the nexus between financial development (FD) in economic growth (GROWTH) in developing countries. The study uses panel data from 138 developing countries during the period 1980–2018. The relationship between financial development and economic growth is investigated using four explanatory variables that are commonly used to measure the level of financial development and several other control variables, including a dummy variable representing the financial and banking crises. The sample of 138 developing countries is also classified into six geographic regions. We have carried out panel unit-root tests and panel cointegration tests before estimating the specified models using both Panel Least Squares (Panel LS) and Panel Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) methods. In addition, panel Granger causality tests have been conducted to identify the direction of causality between FD and GROWTH for each of the regions. The results of the study provide evidence of a direct relationship between FD and GROWTH in developing countries. Furthermore, there is evidence of bi-directional causality running from FD to GROWTH and from GROWTH to FD in samples of Europe and Central Asia, South Asia, and all countries, but not in East Asia and Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Slave Trade: The Formal Demography of a Global System

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Manning
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
African Continent ◽  
Middle Passage ◽  
Global System ◽  
Plantation Life ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Additional Losses

If the best-known aspects of African slavery remain the horrors of the middle passage and the travail of plantation life in the Americas, recent work has nonetheless provided some important reminders of the Old World ramifications of slavery (Miller 1988; Meillassoux 1986; Miers and Roberts 1988; Manning in press-a). Millions of slaves were sent from sub-Saharan Africa to serve in households and plantations in North Africa and the Middle East and suffered heavy casualties on their difficult journey. Millions more, captured in the same net as those sent abroad, were condemned to slavery on the African continent. The mortality of captives in Africa, therefore, included not only losses among those headed for export at the Atlantic coast but the additional losses among those destined for export to the Orient and among those captured and transported to serve African masters.

The nexus between economic institutions and unemployment: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullahi Abdulhakeem Kilishi ◽  
Hammed Adesola Adebowale ◽  
Sodiq Abiodun Oladipupo
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Economic Institutions ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Ssa Countries

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nexus between economic institutions (EI) and unemployment in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Specifically, the paper examines the impact of aggregate EI and ten different components of institutions on total, male and female unemployment in SSA. Design/methodology/approach The paper used unbalanced panel data of 37 SSA countries covering the period between 1995 and 2018. A dynamic heterogenous panel data model is specified for the study. Two alternative estimation techniques of dynamic fixed effect and pool mean group methods were used to estimate the models. The choice of appropriate method is based on Hausman specification test. Findings The findings reveal that aggregate EI and institutions related to the monetary system, trade flows, government spending and fiscal process significantly lead to less unemployment in the long-run. However, there is no evidence of a significant relationship between EI and unemployment in the short-run. These findings are consistent for total, male and female unemployment, respectively. Practical implications To reduce unemployment significantly in the long run, policymakers in SSA need to build more market-friendly institutions that will incentivize private investment, allow free movement of labour and goods, as well as guarantee a stable macroeconomic environment and efficient fiscal system. Originality/value Most of the existing studies focused on the influence of labour market institutions on unemployment ignoring the effects of other forms of institutions. While available studies on the link between institutions and unemployment used either OECD or other developed countries sample, with scanty evidence from Africa. However, the effects of EI could vary across regions. Thus, generalizing the findings from developed countries for SSA countries and other developing countries may be misleading. Hence, this paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the nexus between different types of EI and unemployment using the SSA sample.

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