Travel Mode Choice Modeling: A Comparison of Bayesian Networks and Neural Networks

2012 ◽  
Vol 209-211 ◽  
pp. 717-723
Author(s):  
Dou Nan Tang ◽  
Min Yang ◽  
Mei Hui Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Travel Mode Choice

In recent years, Bayesian networks and neural networks have been widely applied to the travel demand prediction area. However, their prediction performance is rarely directly compared. By experimental tests conducted using the same dataset, a Bayesian network model and a neural network model are compared for the travel mode analysis for the first time in this paper. It is found that the fully Bayesian network model tends to overfit the training set when the network itself is considerable complicated. The TAN structure otherwise has a better generalization performance and can achieve a better and more stable prediction performance, for its prediction accuracy 75.4%±0.63%, compared to the BP neural network model ,which prediction accuracy is 72.2%±3.01%. Experiment and statistical tests demonstrate the superiority of Bayesian networks and we propose using Bayesian networks, especially TAN, instead of neural networks in the travel mode choice prediction field.

scholarly journals Improving prediction of neural networks: a study of tow financial prediction tasks

2004 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 219-233
Author(s):  
Tarun K. Sen ◽  
Parviz Ghandforoush ◽  
Charles T. Stivason
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Financial Prediction ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Relationship Of

Neural networks are excellent mapping tools for complex financial data. Their mapping capabilities however do not always result in good generalizability for financial prediction models. Increasing the number of nodes and hidden layers in a neural network model produces better mapping of the data since the number of parameters available to the model increases. This is determinal to generalizabilitiy of the model since the model memorizes idiosyncratic patterns in the data. A neural network model can be expected to be more generalizable if the model architecture is made less complex by using fewer input nodes. In this study we simplify the neural network by eliminating input nodes that have the least contribution to the prediction of a desired outcome. We also provide a theoretical relationship of the sensitivity of output variables to the input variables under certain conditions. This research initiates an effort in identifying methods that would improve the generalizability of neural networks in financial prediction tasks by using mergers and bankruptcy models. The result indicates that incorporating more variables that appear relevant in a model does not necessarily improve prediction performance.

scholarly journals Dynamic versus static neural network model for rainfall forecasting at Klang River Basin, Malaysia

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1151-1169 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. El-Shafie ◽  
A. Noureldin ◽  
M. Taha ◽  
A. Hussain ◽  
M. Mukhlisin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Multi Layer Perceptron ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Unseen Data

Abstract. Rainfall is considered as one of the major components of the hydrological process; it takes significant part in evaluating drought and flooding events. Therefore, it is important to have an accurate model for rainfall forecasting. Recently, several data-driven modeling approaches have been investigated to perform such forecasting tasks as multi-layer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN). In fact, the rainfall time series modeling involves an important temporal dimension. On the other hand, the classical MLP-NN is a static and has a memoryless network architecture that is effective for complex nonlinear static mapping. This research focuses on investigating the potential of introducing a neural network that could address the temporal relationships of the rainfall series. Two different static neural networks and one dynamic neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and input delay neural network (IDNN), respectively, have been examined in this study. Those models had been developed for the two time horizons for monthly and weekly rainfall forecasting at Klang River, Malaysia. Data collected over 12 yr (1997–2008) on a weekly basis and 22 yr (1987–2008) on a monthly basis were used to develop and examine the performance of the proposed models. Comprehensive comparison analyses were carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed static and dynamic neural networks. Results showed that the MLP-NN neural network model is able to follow trends of the actual rainfall, however, not very accurately. RBFNN model achieved better accuracy than the MLP-NN model. Moreover, the forecasting accuracy of the IDNN model was better than that of static network during both training and testing stages, which proves a consistent level of accuracy with seen and unseen data.

scholarly journals Exploiting the Relationship between Pruning Ratio and Compression Effect for Neural Network Model Based on TensorFlow

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Bo Liu ◽  
Qilin Wu ◽  
Yiwen Zhang ◽  
Qian Cao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Computing Time ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Compression Effect ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Relationship

Pruning is a method of compressing the size of a neural network model, which affects the accuracy and computing time when the model makes a prediction. In this paper, the hypothesis that the pruning proportion is positively correlated with the compression scale of the model but not with the prediction accuracy and calculation time is put forward. For testing the hypothesis, a group of experiments are designed, and MNIST is used as the data set to train a neural network model based on TensorFlow. Based on this model, pruning experiments are carried out to investigate the relationship between pruning proportion and compression effect. For comparison, six different pruning proportions are set, and the experimental results confirm the above hypothesis.

Credit Scoring Using Supervised and Unsupervised Neural Networks

2002 ◽  
pp. 154-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
David West ◽  
Cornelius Muchineuta
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Subprime Lending ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Combined Use

Some of the concerns that plague developers of neural network decision support systems include: (a) How do I understand the underlying structure of the problem domain; (b) How can I discover unknown imperfections in the data which might detract from the generalization accuracy of the neural network model; and (c) What variables should I include to obtain the best generalization properties in the neural network model? In this paper we explore the combined use of unsupervised and supervised neural networks to address these concerns. We develop and test a credit-scoring application using a self-organizing map and a multilayered feedforward neural network. The final product is a neural network decision support system that facilitates subprime lending and is flexible and adaptive to the needs of e-commerce applications.

scholarly journals A DBN-Based Deep Neural Network Model with Multitask Learning for Online Air Quality Prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangeng Li ◽  
Xingyang Shao ◽  
Rihui Sun
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Multitask Learning ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Quality Prediction ◽  
Air Quality Prediction

To avoid the adverse effects of severe air pollution on human health, we need accurate real-time air quality prediction. In this paper, for the purpose of improve prediction accuracy of air pollutant concentration, a deep neural network model with multitask learning (MTL-DBN-DNN), pretrained by a deep belief network (DBN), is proposed for forecasting of nonlinear systems and tested on the forecast of air quality time series. MTL-DBN-DNN model can solve several related prediction tasks at the same time by using shared information contained in the training data of different tasks. In the model, DBN is used to learn feature representations. Each unit in the output layer is connected to only a subset of units in the last hidden layer of DBN. Such connection effectively avoids the problem that fully connected networks need to juggle the learning of each task while being trained, so that the trained networks cannot get optimal prediction accuracy for each task. The sliding window is used to take the recent data to dynamically adjust the parameters of the MTL-DBN-DNN model. The MTL-DBN-DNN model is evaluated with a dataset from Microsoft Research. Comparison with multiple baseline models shows that the proposed MTL-DBN-DNN achieve state-of-art performance on air pollutant concentration forecasting.

Estimation of Polypropylene Melt Index through the Application of Stacked Neural Networks

2011 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 411-415
Author(s):  
Lu Yue Xia ◽  
Hai Tian Pan ◽  
Meng Fei Zhou ◽  
Yi Jun Cai ◽  
Xiao Fang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Measurement Interval ◽  
Melt Index ◽  
Polypropylene Melt ◽  
Single Neural Network

Melt index is the most important parameter in determining the polypropylene grade. Since the lack of proper on-line instruments, its measurement interval and delay are both very long. This makes the quality control quite difficult. A modeling approach based on stacked neural networks is proposed to estimation the polypropylene melt index. Single neural network model generalization capability can be significantly improved by using stacked neural networks model. Proper determination of the stacking weights is essential for good stacked neural networks model performance, so determination of appropriate weights for combining individual networks using the criteria about minimization of sum of absolute prediction error is proposed. Application to real industrial data demonstrates that the polypropylene melt index can be successfully estimated using stacked neural networks. The results obtained demonstrate significant improvements in model accuracy, as a result of using stacked neural networks model, compared to using single neural network model.

scholarly journals An Inventory Controlled Supply Chain Model Based on Improved BP Neural Network

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei He
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Convergence Rate ◽  
Inventory Control ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Inventory Level ◽  
Bp Neural Network Model

Inventory control is a key factor for reducing supply chain cost and increasing customer satisfaction. However, prediction of inventory level is a challenging task for managers. As one of the widely used techniques for inventory control, standard BP neural network has such problems as low convergence rate and poor prediction accuracy. Aiming at these problems, a new fast convergent BP neural network model for predicting inventory level is developed in this paper. By adding an error offset, this paper deduces the new chain propagation rule and the new weight formula. This paper also applies the improved BP neural network model to predict the inventory level of an automotive parts company. The results show that the improved algorithm not only significantly exceeds the standard algorithm but also outperforms some other improved BP algorithms both on convergence rate and prediction accuracy.

APPLYING NEURAL NETWORKS TO SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (04) ◽  
pp. 313-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
NORMAN SCHNEIDEWIND
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Software Reliability ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Time To Failure ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Method Of Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Network Method

We adapt concepts from the field of neural networks to assess the reliability of software, employing cumulative failures, reliability, remaining failures, and time to failure metrics. In addition, the risk of not achieving reliability, remaining failure, and time to failure goals are assessed. The purpose of the assessment is to compare a criterion, derived from a neural network model, for estimating the parameters of software reliability metrics, with the method of maximum likelihood estimation. To our surprise the neural network method proved superior for all the reliability metrics that were assessed by virtue of yielding lower prediction error and risk. We also found that considerable adaptation of the neural network model was necessary to be meaningful for our application – only inputs, functions, neurons, weights, activation units, and outputs were required to characterize our application.

DYNAMIC OUTPUT FEEDBACK STABILIZATION FOR NONLINEAR SYSTEMS BASED ON STANDARD NEURAL NETWORK MODELS

2006 ◽  
Vol 16 (04) ◽  
pp. 305-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
MEIQIN LIU
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Nonlinear Systems ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Output Feedback ◽  
Control Design ◽  
Feedback Stabilization ◽  
Dynamic Output Feedback ◽  
Dynamic Output

A neural-model-based control design for some nonlinear systems is addressed. The design approach is to approximate the nonlinear systems with neural networks of which the activation functions satisfy the sector conditions. A novel neural network model termed standard neural network model (SNNM) is advanced for describing this class of approximating neural networks. Full-order dynamic output feedback control laws are then designed for the SNNMs with inputs and outputs to stabilize the closed-loop systems. The control design equations are shown to be a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) which can be easily solved by various convex optimization algorithms to determine the control signals. It is shown that most neural-network-based nonlinear systems can be transformed into input-output SNNMs to be stabilization synthesized in a unified way. Finally, some application examples are presented to illustrate the control design procedures.

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