scholarly journals Dynamic versus static neural network model for rainfall forecasting at Klang River Basin, Malaysia

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1151-1169 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. El-Shafie ◽  
A. Noureldin ◽  
M. Taha ◽  
A. Hussain ◽  
M. Mukhlisin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Multi Layer Perceptron ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Unseen Data

Abstract. Rainfall is considered as one of the major components of the hydrological process; it takes significant part in evaluating drought and flooding events. Therefore, it is important to have an accurate model for rainfall forecasting. Recently, several data-driven modeling approaches have been investigated to perform such forecasting tasks as multi-layer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN). In fact, the rainfall time series modeling involves an important temporal dimension. On the other hand, the classical MLP-NN is a static and has a memoryless network architecture that is effective for complex nonlinear static mapping. This research focuses on investigating the potential of introducing a neural network that could address the temporal relationships of the rainfall series. Two different static neural networks and one dynamic neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and input delay neural network (IDNN), respectively, have been examined in this study. Those models had been developed for the two time horizons for monthly and weekly rainfall forecasting at Klang River, Malaysia. Data collected over 12 yr (1997–2008) on a weekly basis and 22 yr (1987–2008) on a monthly basis were used to develop and examine the performance of the proposed models. Comprehensive comparison analyses were carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed static and dynamic neural networks. Results showed that the MLP-NN neural network model is able to follow trends of the actual rainfall, however, not very accurately. RBFNN model achieved better accuracy than the MLP-NN model. Moreover, the forecasting accuracy of the IDNN model was better than that of static network during both training and testing stages, which proves a consistent level of accuracy with seen and unseen data.

scholarly journals Dynamic versus static neural network model for rainfall forecasting at Klang River Basin, Malaysia

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 6489-6532 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. El-Shafie ◽  
A. Noureldin ◽  
M. R. Taha ◽  
A. Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Dynamic Neural Network ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Unseen Data

Abstract. Rainfall is considered as one of the major component of the hydrological process, it takes significant part of evaluating drought and flooding events. Therefore, it is important to have accurate model for rainfall forecasting. Recently, several data-driven modeling approaches have been investigated to perform such forecasting task such as Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLP-NN). In fact, the rainfall time series modeling involves an important temporal dimension. On the other hand, the classical MLP-NN is a static and memoryless network architecture that is effective for complex nonlinear static mapping. This research focuses on investigating the potential of introducing a neural network that could address the temporal relationships of the rainfall series. Two different static neural networks and one dynamic neural network namely; Multi-Layer Peceptron Neural network (MLP-NN), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Input Delay Neural Network (IDNN), respectively, have been examined in this study. Those models had been developed for two time horizon in monthly and weekly rainfall basis forecasting at Klang River, Malaysia. Data collected over 12 yr (1997–2008) on weekly basis and 22 yr (1987–2008) for monthly basis were used to develop and examine the performance of the proposed models. Comprehensive comparison analyses were carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed static and dynamic neural network. Results showed that MLP-NN neural network model able to follow the similar trend of the actual rainfall, yet it still relatively poor. RBFNN model achieved better accuracy over the MLP-NN model. Moreover, the forecasting accuracy of the IDNN model outperformed during training and testing stage which prove a consistent level of accuracy with seen and unseen data. Furthermore, the IDNN significantly enhance the forecasting accuracy if compared with the other static neural network model as they could memorize the sequential or time varying patterns.

scholarly journals Using Models of Collective Neural Networks for Classification of the Input Data Applying Simple Voting

2018 ◽  
pp. 333-339
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Classification Models ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Voting Method

This paper deals with the use of neural networks in binary classification problems based on the simple voting method. It specifies that the accuracy of the neural network classification depends both on the choice of the network architecture and on the partitioning of data into training and test sets. It is noted that the process of building a neural network model is probabilistic in nature. To eliminate this drawback and improve the accuracy of classification, the need to combine several models in the form of a collective of neural networks is actualized. To build such a model, it is proposed to use the 0.632-bootstrap method. To aggregate individual solutions formed at the output of each neural network, it is proposed to use a single-choice simple voting. The choice of the model structure in the form of a single-layer Perceptron is justified, and its mathematical model is presented. Using the evaluation data of the functional state of a drunk human as an example, the results of an experimental assessment of the bootstrap error and the accuracy of the neural network model are presented. It is concluded that it is possible to achieve a higher accuracy of classification based on the neural network model when aggregating the results of all bootstrap models using the simple voting method. The accuracy of the constructed model is compared with the accuracy of other classification models. The accuracy of the constructed model was 96.7%, which on average exceeded the accuracy of other classification models by 6.6%. Thus, the neural network collective model is an effective tool for classifying input data using the simple voting method.

Credit Scoring Using Supervised and Unsupervised Neural Networks

2002 ◽  
pp. 154-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
David West ◽  
Cornelius Muchineuta
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Subprime Lending ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Combined Use

Some of the concerns that plague developers of neural network decision support systems include: (a) How do I understand the underlying structure of the problem domain; (b) How can I discover unknown imperfections in the data which might detract from the generalization accuracy of the neural network model; and (c) What variables should I include to obtain the best generalization properties in the neural network model? In this paper we explore the combined use of unsupervised and supervised neural networks to address these concerns. We develop and test a credit-scoring application using a self-organizing map and a multilayered feedforward neural network. The final product is a neural network decision support system that facilitates subprime lending and is flexible and adaptive to the needs of e-commerce applications.

A novel adaptive and fast deep convolutional neural network for bearing fault diagnosis under different working conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 234 (4) ◽  
pp. 1167-1182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Xu ◽  
Shunming Li ◽  
Jinrui Wang ◽  
Zenghui An ◽  
Yu Xin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Receptive Field ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Working Conditions ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Deep Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Mechanical Equipment

Deep learning method is gradually applied in the field of mechanical equipment fault diagnosis because it can learn complex and useful features automatically from the vibration signals. Among the many intelligent diagnostic models, convolutional neural network has been gradually applied to intelligent fault diagnosis of bearings due to its advantages of local connection and weight sharing. However, there are still some drawbacks. (1) The training process of convolutional neural network is slow and unstable. It has more training parameters. (2) It cannot perform well under different working conditions, such as noisy environment and different workloads. In this paper, a novel model named adaptive and fast convolutional neural network with wide receptive field is presented to overcome the aforementioned deficiencies. The prime innovations include the following. First, a deep convolutional neural network architecture is constructed using the scaled exponential linear unit activation function and global average pooling. The model has fewer training parameters and can converge rapidly and stably. Second, the model has a wide receptive field with two medium and three small length convolutional kernels. It also has high diagnostic accuracy and robustness when the environment is noisy and workloads are changed compared with other models. Furthermore, to demonstrate how the wide receptive field convolutional neural network model works, the reasons for high model performance are analyzed and the learned features are also visualized. Finally, the wide receptive field convolutional neural network model is verified by the vibration dataset collected in the background of high noise, and the results indicate that it has high diagnostic performance.

Estimation of Polypropylene Melt Index through the Application of Stacked Neural Networks

2011 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 411-415
Author(s):  
Lu Yue Xia ◽  
Hai Tian Pan ◽  
Meng Fei Zhou ◽  
Yi Jun Cai ◽  
Xiao Fang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Measurement Interval ◽  
Melt Index ◽  
Polypropylene Melt ◽  
Single Neural Network

Melt index is the most important parameter in determining the polypropylene grade. Since the lack of proper on-line instruments, its measurement interval and delay are both very long. This makes the quality control quite difficult. A modeling approach based on stacked neural networks is proposed to estimation the polypropylene melt index. Single neural network model generalization capability can be significantly improved by using stacked neural networks model. Proper determination of the stacking weights is essential for good stacked neural networks model performance, so determination of appropriate weights for combining individual networks using the criteria about minimization of sum of absolute prediction error is proposed. Application to real industrial data demonstrates that the polypropylene melt index can be successfully estimated using stacked neural networks. The results obtained demonstrate significant improvements in model accuracy, as a result of using stacked neural networks model, compared to using single neural network model.

APPLYING NEURAL NETWORKS TO SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (04) ◽  
pp. 313-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
NORMAN SCHNEIDEWIND
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Software Reliability ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Time To Failure ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Method Of Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Network Method

We adapt concepts from the field of neural networks to assess the reliability of software, employing cumulative failures, reliability, remaining failures, and time to failure metrics. In addition, the risk of not achieving reliability, remaining failure, and time to failure goals are assessed. The purpose of the assessment is to compare a criterion, derived from a neural network model, for estimating the parameters of software reliability metrics, with the method of maximum likelihood estimation. To our surprise the neural network method proved superior for all the reliability metrics that were assessed by virtue of yielding lower prediction error and risk. We also found that considerable adaptation of the neural network model was necessary to be meaningful for our application – only inputs, functions, neurons, weights, activation units, and outputs were required to characterize our application.

DYNAMIC OUTPUT FEEDBACK STABILIZATION FOR NONLINEAR SYSTEMS BASED ON STANDARD NEURAL NETWORK MODELS

2006 ◽  
Vol 16 (04) ◽  
pp. 305-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
MEIQIN LIU
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Nonlinear Systems ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Output Feedback ◽  
Control Design ◽  
Feedback Stabilization ◽  
Dynamic Output Feedback ◽  
Dynamic Output

A neural-model-based control design for some nonlinear systems is addressed. The design approach is to approximate the nonlinear systems with neural networks of which the activation functions satisfy the sector conditions. A novel neural network model termed standard neural network model (SNNM) is advanced for describing this class of approximating neural networks. Full-order dynamic output feedback control laws are then designed for the SNNMs with inputs and outputs to stabilize the closed-loop systems. The control design equations are shown to be a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) which can be easily solved by various convex optimization algorithms to determine the control signals. It is shown that most neural-network-based nonlinear systems can be transformed into input-output SNNMs to be stabilization synthesized in a unified way. Finally, some application examples are presented to illustrate the control design procedures.

A NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR CREDIT RISK EVALUATION

2009 ◽  
Vol 19 (04) ◽  
pp. 285-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
ADNAN KHASHMAN
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Learning Schemes

Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

Establish an Artificial Neural Networks Model to Make Quantitative Analysis about the Capillary Electrophoresis Spectrum

2012 ◽  
Vol 452-453 ◽  
pp. 1116-1120
Author(s):  
Hong Ping Li ◽  
Hong Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Capillary Electrophoresis ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Network Training ◽  
Dissociation Degree ◽  
Artificial Neural

Simulating the overlapping capillary electrophoresis spectrogram under the dissimilar conditions by the computer system , Choosing the overlapping capillary electrophoresis spectrogram simulated under the different conditions , processing the data to compose a neural network training regulations, Applying the artificial neural networks method to make a quantitative analysis about the multi-component in the overlapping capillary electrophoresis spectrogram,Using: Radial direction primary function neural network model and multi-layered perceptron neural network model. The findings indicated that, along with the increasing of the capillary electrophoresis spectrogram noise level, the related components’ ability of the two kinds of the overlapping capillary electrophoresis spectrogram by neural network model quantitative analysis drop down. Along with the increasing of the capillary electrophoresis spectrogram’s total dissociation degree, the multi-layered perceptron neural network model to the related components’ ability of the overlapping capillary electrophoresis spectum by quantitative analysis raise up.

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