scholarly journals How can we measure the causal effects of social networks using observational data? Evidence from the diffusion of family planning and AIDS worries in South Nyanza District, Kenya

Author(s):  
Jere R. Behrman ◽  
Hans-Peter Kohler ◽  
Susan Cotts Watkins
2019 ◽  
Vol 188 (9) ◽  
pp. 1682-1685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailey R Banack

Abstract Authors aiming to estimate causal effects from observational data frequently discuss 3 fundamental identifiability assumptions for causal inference: exchangeability, consistency, and positivity. However, too often, studies fail to acknowledge the importance of measurement bias in causal inference. In the presence of measurement bias, the aforementioned identifiability conditions are not sufficient to estimate a causal effect. The most fundamental requirement for estimating a causal effect is knowing who is truly exposed and unexposed. In this issue of the Journal, Caniglia et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2019;000(00):000–000) present a thorough discussion of methodological challenges when estimating causal effects in the context of research on distance to obstetrical care. Their article highlights empirical strategies for examining nonexchangeability due to unmeasured confounding and selection bias and potential violations of the consistency assumption. In addition to the important considerations outlined by Caniglia et al., authors interested in estimating causal effects from observational data should also consider implementing quantitative strategies to examine the impact of misclassification. The objective of this commentary is to emphasize that you can’t drive a car with only three wheels, and you also cannot estimate a causal effect in the presence of exposure misclassification bias.


2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (17_suppl) ◽  
pp. 50-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magnus Bygren ◽  
Ryszard Szulkin

Aims: It is common in the context of evaluations that participants have not been selected on the basis of transparent participation criteria, and researchers and evaluators many times have to make do with observational data to estimate effects of job training programs and similar interventions. The techniques developed by researchers in such endeavours are useful not only to researchers narrowly focused on evaluations, but also to social and population science more generally, as observational data overwhelmingly are the norm, and the endogeneity challenges encountered in the estimation of causal effects with such data are not trivial. The aim of this article is to illustrate how register data can be used strategically to evaluate programs and interventions and to estimate causal effects of participation in these. Methods: We use propensity score matching on pretreatment-period variables to derive a synthetic control group, and we use this group as a comparison to estimate the employment-treatment effect of participation in a large job-training program. Results: We find the effect of treatment to be small and positive but transient. Conclusions: Our method reveals a strong regression to the mean effect, extremely easy to interpret as a treatment effect had a less advanced design been used (e.g. a within-subjects panel data analysis), and illustrates one of the unique advantages of using population register data for research purposes.


2012 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Krug ◽  
Martina Rebien

SummaryUsing a search-theoretical model proposed by Montgomery (1992), we analyze the effects of information flow via social networks (friends, relatives, and other personal contacts) on monetary and non-monetary labor market outcomes. Propensity score matching on survey data from low-status unemployed respondents is used to identify causal effects. The analysis takes into account unobserved heterogeneity by applying Rosenbaum bounds. We show that the standard approach to investigating labor market outcomes in terms of how jobs are found is misleading. As an alternative, we propose focusing comparative analyses of labor market outcomes on how individuals search for jobs and, more particularly, on whether they search for jobs via social networks. Using this approach we find no evidence for causal effects on monetary outcomes such as wages and wage satisfaction. We also find no effects for non-monetary outcomes like job satisfaction.


2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Keele ◽  
William Minozzi

Political scientists are often interested in estimating causal effects. Identification of causal estimates with observational data invariably requires strong untestable assumptions. Here, we outline a number of the assumptions used in the extant empirical literature. We argue that these assumptions require careful evaluation within the context of specific applications. To that end, we present an empirical case study on the effect of Election Day Registration (EDR) on turnout. We show how different identification assumptions lead to different answers, and that many of the standard assumptions used are implausible. Specifically, we show that EDR likely had negligible effects in the states of Minnesota and Wisconsin. We conclude with an argument for stronger research designs.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim T Morris ◽  
Jon Heron ◽  
Eleanor Sanderson ◽  
George Davey Smith ◽  
Kate Tilling

Background Mendelian randomization (MR) is a powerful tool through which the causal effects of modifiable exposures on outcomes can be estimated from observational data. Most exposures vary throughout the life course, but MR is commonly applied to one measurement of an exposure (e.g., weight measured once between ages 40 and 60). It has been argued that MR provides biased causal effect estimates when applied to one measure of an exposure that varies over time. Methods We propose an approach that emphasises the liability that causes the entire exposure trajectory. We demonstrate this approach using simulations and an applied example. Results We show that rather than estimating the direct or total causal effect of changing the exposure value at a given time, MR estimates the causal effect of changing the liability as induced by a specific genotype that gives rise to the exposure at that time. As such, results from MR conducted at different time points are expected to differ (unless the liability of exposure is constant over time), as we demonstrate by estimating the effect of BMI measured at different ages on systolic blood pressure. Conclusions Practitioners should not interpret MR results as timepoint-specific direct or total causal effects, but as the effect of changing the liability that causes the entire exposure trajectory. Estimates of how the effects of a genetic variant on an exposure vary over time are needed to interpret timepoint-specific causal effects.


2018 ◽  
Vol 96 (10) ◽  
pp. 4045-4062 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nora M Bello ◽  
Vera C Ferreira ◽  
Daniel Gianola ◽  
Guilherme J M Rosa

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