A Conceptual Forecasting Analysis of International Trade Aspects Based on Globalization Impact Issues

Global GDP is really important for trade, since the larger the global economy, the more goods and services available for trade. Global GDP grew by around two-thirds in real terms between 2000 and 2020 – or 2.6% per year on average.2020 saw some of the largest trade reductions and output volumes for both industrial production and goods trade since WWII. The year 2020 was marked by some of the largest reductions in trade and output volumes since WWII. The declines in both world industrial production and goods trade in the first half of 2020 were of similar depth to those at the trough of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In addition, trade and production impacts across specific goods, services and trade partners were highly varied. Initial pandemic-era expectations for a double-digit decline in world merchandise trade in 2020 did not materialise. Global trade turned out to recover from the shock at an extraordinarily fast pace from around mid-2020.

China-North Korea merchandise trade and tourism industry relationship in stage 2017-2019 under the impact of International sanctions

Since 2017, the United Nations has strengthened the economic sanctions on North Korea. Many countries have stopped trading with North Korea, causing the economic certain difficulties. China has become a trade and tourism partner that accounting for almost all of the country's foreign currency earning. That had gone on until the beginning of 2020 when North Korea locked its borders to avoid the Covid-19 epidemic. North Korea is essentially famous for having published a quite relatively little information about themselves and being nicknamed “The Hermit Kingdom” due theirs policies. Therefore, the article will analyze mirror data from countries, then compare it with the actual situation of North Korea to assess the reliability of the data. Moreover, providing information on transport routes is major contributor to China-North Korea. Thereby, drawing comments on China-North Korea merchandise trade and tourism industry relationship in that stage and proving North Korean economic adaptation under International sanctions. The author also suggests polices to reach the North Korean development of self-reliance economics.

Economic recovery in the world and in the United States at the beginning of the third decade

The speed of the economic is estimated to improve at the beginning of the third decade. After pandemic stress and economic restrictions of the last year, the domestic product of the world is expected to grow during the current year, with G 20 countries (as a whole), and especially China, doing better than the world and much better than for example the countries of the euro zone. The economic activities in the United States, after slowing at the end of the last year; tend to grow higher than the major advanced economies in Europe are projected. Different economic growth rates are also among the sectors, and the economies that most dependent on travel, tourism, other services suffer most. As to world merchandise trade it shows returning to pre-pandemic levels. But time is needed for consumer confidence recovering progress, labour market improving, losses due to increased poverty. Meanwhile the fiscal support continues growing with records leading, for example, in the United States to budget deficit exceeding one of the last year. The effects of the planned fiscal stimulus remain mainly uncertain concerning both economic activities and the prospects of raising tax revenues to moderate the speed of growing budget deficit.

Economic Benefits and Pollutants Emission Embodied in China–US Merchandise Trade—Comparative Analysis Based on Gross Trade, Value Added Trade and Value Added in Trade

The main focuses of the Sino–US trade dispute are the issue of trade interests. If taking environmental costs into consideration, the trade interests are even more overestimated. There are different methods for measuring trade interests, and the results obtained under different methods differ. This paper uses the gross trade, value-added trade and value-added-in trade framework to calculate the economic gains and correspondent embodied pollution in China–US trade, compares the differences in results under different models and makes possible explanations. Our conclusions are as follows: (1) Traditional gross trade statistics have overestimated China’s economic benefits. The trade balance in gross trade was overestimated by 35% and 40% compared to the value-added trade and value-added-in trade. (2) China was a net exporter of embodied pollution and paid huge environmental costs from 1995 to 2011. (3) China’s exports are environmentally worse than the United States, and the calculation of pollution terms of trade proves that China paid a greater environmental cost for the same amount of economic benefits. (4) Different accounting frameworks have a great impact on the embodied pollution results at the industry level. Pollution based on value-added trade was more concentrated. The major polluting industries also changed.

WORLD TRADE AFTER COVID-19 PANDEMIC SHOCK – RECOVERY OR STAGNATION?

Globalization has shorten the world & make the life easier. It also results liberalization of trade. Hence, world trade or global trade acts as a coordinator of foreign trade of different countries. Due to the behavioral and structural position, world trade is also responsible for spreading crises and infectious diseases. Nowadays the world is facing a perilous situation for worldwide spreading of COVID-19 pandemic. The acceleration of this pandemic causes the deceleration of the normal life of the nations. The leaders of most of the countries implement restrictive policies to protect their citizens from this pandemic, i.e., lockdown, travel restrictions. Consequently, COVID-19 produces an economic impact through the interruptions of personal income, world trade, and demand & supply chain. After the last financial crisis 2008-09, the world is again facing a destructive fall in world trade. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of world trade during COVID-19 and the present situation of this whether it is in stagnation or recovery. The paper uses secondary data from different journals, websites, newspapers and blogs for analysis purposes. This paper concludes that the world merchandise trade’s recovery is stronger than the world services trade. The reasons for sluggish world services trade is the restricted international travels & tourisms. There is no equal merchandise trade recovery for all the countries. Some countries are winners & some are losers.

The Effect of Crude Oil Price on Merchandise Trade: Evidence from East Asia and Pacific

One of the most important production inputs is energy, particularly crude oil. The impacts of oil price fluctuations on global trade flows can be understood by the uncertainty channel, fluctuations in oil prices may create uncertainty about the future path of the oil price, causing consumers to postpone irreversible purchases of consumer durable goods, and also causing firms to postpone irreversible investments, and also recent hikes and fluctuations in oil prices since 1999 have attracted attention and invoked concerns about their devastating effects on a variety of economic activities. The objective of this research is to determine the influence of crude oil price to merchandise trade in East Asia and Pacific. This research uses quantitative methods and linear regression analysis. The results of the analysis show that there is negative and significance effect of crude oil price on merchandise trade in East Asia and Pacific for the period 1987 – 2019.