Aggregation, asymmetry, and common factors for Bangladesh’s exchange rate–trade balance relation

We present an application of the recent CS-ARDL methodology in the context of a country’s trade balance–exchange rate relationship. The trade balance is expected to deteriorate first before improving in response to currency depreciation and vice versa, widely known as the J-curve effect satisfying the Marshall–Lerner condition in the long run. Combining bilateral and aggregate analysis in one setting by constructing specific panel data with one reference country, we find that aggregate analysis is sensitive to our allowance for heterogeneity. Estimates using the aggregate time series data show evidence favoring the J-curve relation, whereas the aggregate analysis resulting from the panel time series data shows that currency appreciation improves trade balance in Bangladesh in the long run, which goes against the Marshall–Lerner condition. With the reference of the existing commodity-level literature, we argue that this atypical scenario lines with the realities of a ‘small’ economy like Bangladesh, where her exporters attempt to maintain their market share with some government support. The study provides essential policy suggestions by identifying the significant contributors to Bangladesh’s trade balance–exchange rate relationship: China, Japan, and Singapore.

Copula-Based Bayesian Reliability Analysis of a Product of a Probability and a Frequency Model for Parallel Systems When Components Are Dependent

While the dependence assumption among the components is naturally important in evaluating the reliability of a system, studies investigating the issues of aggregation errors in Bayesian reliability analyses have been focused mainly on systems with independent components. This study developed a copula-based Bayesian reliability model to formulate dependency between components of a parallel system and to estimate the failure rate of the system. In particular, we integrated Monte Carlo simulation and classification tree learning to identify key factors that affect the magnitude of errors in the estimation of posterior means of system reliability (for different Bayesian analysis approaches—aggregate analysis, disaggregate analysis, and simplified disaggregate analysis) to provide important guidelines for choosing the most appropriate approach for analyzing a model of products of a probability and a frequency for parallel systems with dependent components.

Pengaruh Pemakaian Kelambu, Kawat Kasa dan Kondisi Geodemografis Terhadap Kejadian Malaria di Kabupaten Batu Bara

Latar Belakang: Malaria merupakan salah satu penyakit menular yang menjadi masalah global. Malaria sering menimbulkan kejadian luar biasa dan berakibat pada penurunan kualitas hidup, ekonomi serta mengakibatkan kematian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji hubungan penggunaan kelambu dan kawat kasa dengan kejadian malaria serta analisis spasial di Kabupaten Batu BaraMetode: Jenis penelitian ini adalah observasional analitik dengan disain matched case control terhadap umur dan jenis kelamin dan analisis spasial. Lokasi penelitian di Kabupaten Batu Bara pada tahun 2018. Sampel berjumlah 136 orang (68 kasus dan 68 kontrol). Sampel kasus adalah penduduk berumur diatas 15 tahun dan positif malaria. Sampel kontrol adalah tetangga kasus dengan gejala demam tetapi hasil pemeriksaan darah negatif malaria.Teknik pengambilan sampel secara purposive sampling. Data dikumpulkan melalui observasi dan wawancara menggunakan kuesioner. Analisis data termasuk data individu dan aggregat. Analisis data menggunakan Epi Info 3.5.4, aggregate analysis menggunakan SatScan v9.8 and Geoda 1.12.0.Hasil: Ada hubungan bermakna antara pemakaian kelambu (OR 2,8) dan kawat kasa (OR 2,5) dengan kejadian malaria. Berdasarkan analisis purely spasial dengan menggunakan software satscan terdapat dua cluster. Cluster 1 terdiri dari 5 kasus dengan nilai RR = 4,41 dan cluster 2 terdiri dari 8 kasus dengan nilai RR = 0,51 Simpulan: Ada hubungan pemakaian kelambu dan penggunaan kawat kasa dengan kejadian malaria di Kabupaten Batu Bara. ABSTRACTTitle: The Effect of The Use of Mosquito Nets, Wire Netsand Geodemographic Conditions on The Incidence of Malaria in Batu Bara District.Background: Malaria is an infectious disease that is a global problem. Malaria often results in Extraordinary Events and results in a decrease in quality of life, economy, and death. This study aims to study the association between the use of mosquito nets and wire nets with the incidence of malaria and a spatial analysis in Batu Bara District.Method: This research is an analytic observational with matched case-control design according to age and sex and spatial analysis. This research was conducted in Batu Bara District in 2018. Samples were 136 people (68 cases and 68 controls). Case samples were residents aged more than 15 years who were positive for malaria. Control samples were residents who lived close to the case home with symptoms of fever but the results of the blood test showed negative malaria. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling. Data were collected through observation and interview using a questionnaire, Determination of coordinates using GPS MAP 64S Garmin GPS. The analysis includes individual and aggregate analysis, data analysis using Epi Info 3.5.4, aggregate analysis using SatScan v9.8 and Geoda 1.12.0.Result: There was a significant association between the use of mosquito nets (OR 2.8) and wire nets (OR 2.5) with the incidence of malaria. Based on purely spatial analysis using satscan software, two clusters are formed. Cluster 1 consists of 5 cases with RR = 4.41 and cluster 2 consists of 8 cases with RR = 0.51.Conclusion: There was significant association between the use of mosquito nets and wire nets with the incidence of malaria in Batu Bara District.

Accelerating route choice learning with experience sharing in a commuting scenario: An agent-based approach

Navigation apps have become more and more popular, as they give information about the current traffic state to drivers who then adapt their route choice. In commuting scenarios, where people repeatedly travel between a particular origin and destination, people tend to learn and adapt to different situations. What if the experience gained from such a learning task is shared via an app? In this paper, we analyse the effects that adaptive driver agents cause on the overall network, when those agents share their aggregated experience about route choice in a reinforcement learning setup. In particular, in this investigation, Q-learning is used and drivers share what they have learnt about the system, not just information about their current travel times. Using a classical commuting scenario, we show that experience sharing can improve convergence times that underlie a typical learning task. Further, we analyse individual learning dynamics to get an impression how aggregate and individual dynamics are related to each other. Based on that interesting pattern of individual learning dynamics can be observed that would otherwise be hidden in an only aggregate analysis.

Facilitating accountability in corporate sustainability reporting through Spotlight Accounting

PurposeIt is difficult for corporate sustainability reporting (CSR) to provide accountability to stakeholders. This paper assesses whether accountability-based CSR systems can be created through the application of Spotlight Accounting and WikiRate as a hybrid forum.Design/methodology/approachThe current paper explores the utility of Spotlight Accounting for CSR through assessing its application to a hybrid forum, WikiRate. This process involved engaging student researchers to collect CSR data from the United Nations Global Compact's (UNGC) corporate action group (CAG) and recording this information into the WikiRate platform. Aggregate analysis was conducted to assess the limitations and challenges of the data to inform decision-making.FindingsSpotlight Accounting exposes challenges within traditional applications of CSR. These challenges impact comparability, decision usefulness and accountability of CSR data for stakeholders.Practical implicationsThis paper provides recommendations to enhance the accessibility and relevance of company information to assist in the provision of Spotlight Accounting. In doing so, it highlights the usefulness of CSR to leverage greater accountability between corporations and society.Originality/valueThis paper applies the emerging practices of Spotlight Accounting and presents it as an alternative way to research and conceptualise external accounts, reporting and accountability. This form of accounting has the potential to enhance communications and partnerships between companies and society as well as challenge dominate power dynamics held by corporations.

Efficacy of Remestemcel-L Treatment in Steroid Refractory Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease in Children: An Aggregate Analysis

Introduction: Steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host dose disease (SR-aGVHD) is a frequent and potentially fatal complication of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). There are no approved therapies specifically indicated for use in children with SR-aGVHD < 12 years old. Treatment with culture-expanded, adult human allogeneic bone marrow (BM)-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (remestemcel-L) has shown excellent safety and efficacy in clinical trials conducted over the past 10 years. Here we describe aggregate results of remestemcel-L treatment of SR-aGVHD in the pediatric population. Methods: 309 pediatric subjects with SR-aGVHD were treated with remestemcel-L across 3 protocols. Data were derived from a phase 3, single arm study as first line after steroid failure with no other second line aGVHD therapies added through day 28 (NCT02336230, n=54), an expanded access program in subjects with aGVHD that had not responded to multiple other treatments (NCT00759018, n=241) and the pediatric subset of a randomized controlled trial (NCT00366145, n=14) in which remestemcel or placebo were given with a concomitant second line aGVHD therapy. Subjects in each protocol received 8 intravenous infusions of remestemcel-L (2 x 106 cells/kg twice weekly for 4 weeks). Those achieving a partial response could receive an additional 4 doses (once weekly for the subsequent 4 weeks). This analysis included 309 subjects who received at least one remestemcel-L dose. Response was assessed 28 days after the first dose. Survival was evaluated through day 100. Results: At baseline, mean age was 8.9 years (range 0.3 to 18.2 years) and aGVHD severity by IBMTR grade was C or D in n=252 (82%). Sources of grafts were bone marrow (BM: 46%), mobilized blood (MB: 20%) and cord blood (CB: 31%). Donor grafts were HLA matched related (9%) or unrelated (44%) or HLA-mismatched (46%). Subjects received a mean (standard deviation) of 10.3 (4.2) remestemcel-L infusions for a mean cumulative dose of 660.8 (484.1) x 106 cells. The primary endpoint, overall response (complete + partial response) at day 28 (OR) was observed in 66% of subjects (204/309) and survival at day 100 (OS) was 68% (211/309). Day 28 OR strongly predicted day 100 survival. Among subjects who were alive at day 28 (N=284), 170 of the 204 (83%) responders survived through day 100. In contrast, 41/80 (51%) of non-responders survived through day 100. Day 28 OR frequencies and day 100 OS rates were consistent across baseline aGVHD grades: Grade B OR 70%, OS 77%; Grade C or D OR 65%, OS 66%. Comparable day 28 response frequencies and day 100 survival rates were observed across type of HSCT: OR was achieved in 65%, 64% and 71% of BM, MB and CB, respectively and 67%, 70% and 70% of BM, MB and CB recipients survived through day 100. Comparable OR and OS were observed in HLA compatibility and donor types with OR in 71%, 66% and 66% and day 100 OS in 64%, 66% and 71% of matched related or unrelated and mismatched, respectively. Remestemcel-L was well tolerated with no infusion-related toxicity or other safety concerns. Most treatment-emergent serious adverse events were attributable to aGVHD or the underlying pre-transplant disease. Conclusions: In this large, diverse sample of pediatric subjects with SR- aGVHD, treatment with remestemcel-L was associated with a high and consistent overall response rate and survival rate through 100 days. Day 28 OR was highly predictive of day 100 survival. Remestemcel-L was well tolerated and effective across transplant types, donor sources, moderate to severe grades of GVHD and prior or concurrent treatment paradigms as defined by the individual protocols in this aggregate analysis. Remestemcel-L is a safe and effective treatment for children with SR- aGVHD addressing an unmet medical need for this highly vulnerable population. Disclosures Kurtzberg: Mesoblast, Inc,: Consultancy, Honoraria. Martin:Abgenomics: Research Funding; Enlivex: Consultancy; Procter and Gamble: Current equity holder in publicly-traded company; Pharmacyclics LLC: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Neovii: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Pfzier: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Xenikos: Research Funding; Talaris: Consultancy; Rigel: Consultancy; Mesoblast, Inc.: Consultancy; Genentech: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen: Honoraria. Prockop:Atara: Research Funding; Jasper: Research Funding; Mesoblast, Inc,: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding. Burke:Mesoblast, Inc,: Current Employment. Segal:Mesoblast, Inc,: Current Employment.

Soviet Defectors

This book identifies 88 Soviet intelligence officers who defected from 1924 to 1954 and provides an aggregate analysis of their information to uncover Soviet strategic priorities and concerns. When intelligence officers defect, they take with them privileged information and often communicate it to the receiving state, and thereby they open a window into a closed national security decision making system. The book provides the most comprehensive list of Soviet intelligence officer defectors compiled to date representing a variety of specializations. Through the information they provided in now-declassified debriefings, documents they brought with them, and post-defection publications and public appearances, this book shows the evolution of Soviet threat perceptions and the development of the "main enemy" concept in the Soviet national security system. It also shows fluctuations in the Soviet recruitment and vetting of personnel for sensitive national security positions, corresponding with fluctuations in the stability of the Soviet government. The shifting motivations of these officers also reveals the pressures that they were experiencing at the time, leading to their choice to break with the Soviet Union.