scholarly journals The effect of inflation on the optimum payback cut-off

1991 ◽  
Vol 22 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 22-32
Author(s):  
J. U. De Villiers

Despite the theoretical criticisms against it, payback is one of the most commonly used methods of investment appraisal in practice. Its ease of calculation and simplicity are seen as its most important advantages. In addition, an unsophisticated method like payback can yield the correct investment decision as long as the correct cut-off is specified. In this paper the optimum payback cut-off and how it is influenced by inflation is studied. Three different methods of calculating payback under inflation are investigated. In all of these the optimum cut-off depends upon the type of assets (current, depreciable or non-depreciable assets) as well as the life of depreciable assets employed. The study shows that the optimum nominal payback cut-off (where the payback calculation is based on inflated cash flows) decreases with increasing inflation for all asset types. The optimum real payback cut-off (based on nominal cash flows adjusted for inflation) does not change with inflation. The optimum uninflated payback cut-off (where inflation is ignored) decreases rapidly with inflation for projects employing current assets. In the paper is shown that complex but systematic relationships exist between a project's payback period and its discount rate. Despite its deficiencies, the use of the payback method is therefore not entirely irrational.

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 333-339
Author(s):  
Artem V. Klauz ◽  
Igor E. Frolov ◽  
Vladimir V. Kharitonov ◽  
Aleksandra A. Shaeva

An economic and analytical model for evaluating the criteria of efficiency (profitability) of investments in the projects of innovative nuclear icebreakers of the Northern Sea Route is suggested. The model is based on the new analytical representation of the methodology for forecasting the investment project efficiency that is widely used in international practice. The mathematical expression for the net discounted income provides convenient formulas for calculating several investment efficiency criteria for nuclear icebreakers: internal rate of return, minimum annual revenues from icebreaker convoys, discounted payback period, and the volume of delivered cargo. The paper gives estimates of the criteria for the efficiency of investments in “Leader” class icebreakers that depend on the discount rate of cash flows, capital, and operating costs. It is shown that at high capital costs, typical for construction of “Leader” class nuclear icebreakers, the minimum required revenue of an icebreaker, representing a financial burden for ships transporting cargo along the NSR, rapidly increases with the growth of discount rate and the reduction of investment payback period. This means that the profitability of such icebreakers is only possible at low discount rates of 2–3% per year, which is an extremely low-interest credit. Even with low interest and impressive technical characteristics of the icebreaker (high speed of navigation, large number of ships in the caravan and their maximum capacity) the payback period would exceed 25 years.


2021 ◽  
pp. 0148558X2198991
Author(s):  
Philip K. Hong ◽  
Jaywon Lee ◽  
Sang-Hyun Park ◽  
Sukesh Patro

We decompose the total value loss around firms’ announcements of financial restatements into components arising from investors’ revisions in cash flows and discount rates. First, relative to population benchmarks, restatements represent circumstances in which the cash flow component becomes more important in explaining valuations. While we find significant contributions from both sources, with the cash flow component explaining more than 33% of the variation in stock returns surrounding restatement announcements, this component explains only 13% to 22% in comparable non-restating firms. When restatements are caused by underlying financial fraud, the discount rate impact becomes more important, explaining about 88% of return variation. On the contrary, the cash flow impact is relatively larger for firms with higher earnings persistence or restatements associated with errors. Our decomposition of the value loss helps explain returns in the post-announcement period. Firms with a higher relative discount rate impact experience a significant downward stock price drift after the initial announcement-related price decline. For firms with a higher relative cash flow impact, the evidence suggests the initial impact of the restatement announcement is more complete with no subsequent drift pattern. Our findings close gaps in the evidence on financial restatements and extend the literature on the drivers of stock price movements.


2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-90
Author(s):  
Andewi Rokhmawati

This study aims to examine the effect of cash flows on investment decision that is moderated by financial constraint and mispricing. The population of the study was all listed-manufacturing firms in Indonesia from 2014 to 2016. Samples were chosen based on the availability of firms’ financial report covering the period of the study. By using moderated regression analysis where financial constraint and mispricing as moderating variables, the study concluded that financial constraint weakens the effect of cash flow on investment. Although lower financially constrained-firms have an opportunity to choose their source of funding, they prefer to finance their investment from an internal source of funding (from cash flows) due to lower risk. Furthermore, mispricing does not have a role as a moderating variable. In this condition, overvalued firms are indifferent from choosing the source of funding. Finally, when financial constraint and mispricing are signed as a moderating variable, they weaken the effect of cash flow on investment. It means that firms with lower financial constraint and overvaluation prefer to use external funding by issuing new common stocks because it provides a lower cost of capital.


2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 103-105
Author(s):  
Lari Hadelan

The major prerequisite of successful entrepreneurship venture is quality of decision-making process. Decision in investment is the most important financial decision. It is a part of both long-term business planning process and strategic business definition. Using available investment appraisal methods, entrepreneur should make positive or negative investment decision. Within the development of the economic theory and the practice many of methods made decision-making process rational and gave the scientific and practical base for successful project evaluation.


Author(s):  
Christian Gollier

This chapter examines a model in which the exogeneous rate of return of capital is constant but random. Safe investment projects must be evaluated and implemented before this uncertainty can be fully revealed, i.e., before knowing the opportunity cost of capital. A simple rule of thumb in this context would be to compute the net present value (NPV) for each possible discount rate, and to implement the project if the expected NPV is positive. If the evaluator uses this approach, this is as if one would discount cash flows at a rate that is decreasing with maturity. This approach is implicitly based on the assumptions that the stakeholders are risk-neutral and transfer the net benefits of the project to an increase in immediate consumption. Opposite results prevail if one assumes that the net benefit is consumed at the maturity of the project.


2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (2) ◽  
pp. 90-106
Author(s):  
Denis Shageev

Objective and subjective factors of influence on the nominal and actual size of a cash flow of the project in the form of the scheme are opened. The analysis of method of calculation of a discount rate and award for risk is made. On analysis results, in article it was offered to exclude an indicator of an award for risk from a formula of calculation of a discount rate and to research it separately as the certain managed size influencing the nominal, but not actual size of cash flows of the project. It gave the chance to technically reduce value of a discount rate and by that to increase the NPV real value of the project. Designations of negative and positive factors project risks are entered. Availability and an opportunity positive influence of factors risks on the project is proved. The formulas of calculation of the modified cash flow, effect and effective management of cash flows of the project differing on structure, content and entering of the additional positive amendment on risk are offered. It will give the chance to reduce or eliminate negative influence of objective and subjective factors risks, and in certain cases and in addition to raise project NPV. For assessment of levels of effective management of cash flows the verbal scale is offered.


2020 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher D. O’Brien

Abstract This paper is motivated by The Pensions Regulator (TPR)’s review of its Code of Practice on funding for defined benefit schemes and aims to suggest how trustees and regulators should monitor the extent to which scheme assets are adequate to cover liabilities. It concludes that current practice is inadequate and needs to change. A review is carried out of papers on not only this subject but also (to collect ideas rather than automatically apply them to pensions solvency valuations) pensions and insurance accounting and regulation. Current practice is “scheme-specific funding” which permits discretion on choice of discount rates and other assumptions; the paper is concerned that this can lead to bias, and that trends in a scheme’s solvency can be obscured by changing assumptions. This also leads to the funding ratio communicated to scheme members having little meaning. The paper suggests that regulators should require a valuation that is based on sound principles, objective, fair, neutral, transparent and feasible. A prescribed methodology would replace discretion. It concludes that the benefits to be valued are those arising on discontinuance of the scheme, without allowing for future salary-related benefit increases, which are felt to no longer be a constructive obligation of employers. The valuation should, it is suggested, use market values of assets, which is largely current practice. Liabilities should reflect the trustees fulfilling their liabilities, rather than transferring them to an insurer (which may introduce artificialities). The discount rate should follow the “matching” approach, being a market-consistent risk-free rate: this is consistent with several papers to the profession in recent years. It avoids the problems of the “budgeting” approach, where the discount rate is based on the expected return on assets – this can be used to help set contribution levels but is not suitable for determining the value of liabilities, which depends on salary, service, longevity, etc and (very largely) not on the assets held. In principle, the liability value can be adjusted for illiquidity. Credit risk of the employer should not be allowed for. Liabilities should reflect the (probability-weighted) expected value of future cash flows and should not be increased by prudent margins or risk margins (which would lead to a non-neutral figure). Risk disclosures are needed to understand and manage risks. The resulting funding ratio is a consistent measure, to be disclosed to members, which can be used to manage the scheme, and by regulators as the basis for requiring action. Scheme-specific management using data such as the employer covenant means that immediate action to ensure 100% solvency on the proposed basis would not necessarily be appropriate. The author encourages the profession to advise TPR on the above lines.


1998 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joan Ballantine ◽  
Stephanie Stray

This paper explores the techniques used by organizations to appraise Information Systems (IS)/Information Technology (IT) investments, and concentrates, in particular, on techniques of capital investment appraisal. We draw on relevant studies reported in both the accounting and finance, and the IS literature, which have addressed their usage. Where possible comparisons are drawn between both sets of literatures. The results of a survey that specifically examined IS/IT investment appraisal practices of a sample of UK companies is also presented. Among the issues discussed include the extent to which capital investment appraisal techniques are used to appraisal investments, the importance of the techniques used and the problems attendant on the decision making process.


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