scholarly journals Computational probability modeling and Bayesian inference

2008 ◽  
Vol Volume 9, 2007 Conference in... ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabien Campillo ◽  
Rivo Rakotozafy ◽  
Vivien Rossi

International audience Computational probabilistic modeling and Bayesian inference has met a great success over the past fifteen years through the development of Monte Carlo methods and the ever increasing performance of computers. Through methods such as Monte Carlo Markov chain and sequential Monte Carlo Bayesian inference effectively combines with Markovian modelling. This approach has been very successful in ecology and agronomy. We analyze the development of this approach applied to a few examples of natural resources management. La modélisation probabiliste et l'inférence bayésienne computationnelles rencontrent un très grand succès depuis une quinzaine d'années grâce au développement des méthodes de Monte Carlo et aux performances toujours croissantes des moyens de calcul. Au travers d'outils comme les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov et les méthodes de Monte Carlo séquentielles, l'inférence bayésienne se combine efficacement à la modélisation markovienne. Cette approche est également très répandue dans le domaine de l'écologie et l'agronomie. Nous faisons le point sur les développements de cette approche appliquée à quelques exemples de gestion de ressources naturelles.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thi Le Thu Nguyen ◽  
Francois Septier Septier ◽  
Gareth William Peters

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (8) ◽  
pp. 65-73
Author(s):  
A. A. Bychkova

One of the producers of pollution in the natural environment and on natural and anthropogenic objects is transport, which emits harmful vapors when driving on highways. The spread of pollution occurs during the movement of transport along the air and water flow. The article investigates the level of environmental pollution from vehicles in the regions of Russia, reveals the total percentage of emissions from passenger vehicles. The analysis of emissions has been carried out based on data from the Federal Service for Supervision of Natural Resources Management (Rosprirodnadzor) using empirical and mathematical, statistical methods. A brief description of the method of calculation of evaporation from transport has been given. In the course of studies, various groups the total values of emissions for various transport groups in the regions have been identified, environmental zones have been determined. The dynamics of changes on transport over the past three years has been traced. The regions most affected by harmful emissions have been considered, measures to reduce environmental risk have been proposed. The necessity of a national project on ecology and air purification has been substantiated. Environmental problems in transport pose a great threat to the environment, it is impossible to reduce emissions immediately, but if you gradually apply measures to minimize pollution, you can improve the environmental situation in the regions.


Author(s):  
Cathy Robinson ◽  
Bruce Taylor

In Contested Country, leading researchers in planning, geography, environmental studies and public policy critically review Australia's environmental management under the auspices of the Natural Heritage Trust over the past decade, and identify the challenges that must be met in the national quest for sustainability. It is the first comprehensive, critical examination of the local and regional natural resources management undertaken in Australia, using research sourced from all states as well as the Northern Territory. It addresses questions such as: How is accountability to be maintained? Who is included and who is excluded in decentralised environmental governance? Does the scale of bottom-up management efforts match the scale of environmental problems? How is scientific and technical fidelity in environmental management to be maintained when significant activities are devolved to and controlled by local communities? The book challenges some of the accepted benefits, assumptions and ideologies underpinning regional scaled environmental management, and is a must-read for anyone interested in this field.


2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (5) ◽  
pp. 1305-1319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thi Le Thu Nguyen ◽  
Francois Septier ◽  
Gareth W. Peters ◽  
Yves Delignon

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 308-354
Author(s):  
Regis Y Simo

The extraction and processing of raw materials into commodities are not only attractive for their economic value but also for political reasons. This makes natural resources a source of extreme greed. In this context, regions rich in raw materials, such as Africa, become the scene of local and foreign speculation and, instead of contributing to the development of endowed countries, natural resources often become factors of fragility – hence the ‘natural resources curse’ phrase. While countries exercise sovereignty over their resources by virtue of international law, it has also become essential to develop more sustainable activities in order to continue to exploit these resources. Cognisant of these global environmental challenges, a great number of countries in the world are committed to safeguarding the planet, as can be seen from the adoption of the African Convention on the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. At the international level, the multiplicity and complexity of legal norms applicable to the exploitation of natural resources can constitute an obstacle to their application. Indeed, while the scarcity of resources and the surge of environmental problems associated with their exploitation have led to greater reliance on international law because the stakes are global and permeate political boundaries, the corpus of international law rules is sometimes only indirectly relevant to natural resources, since they were not enacted to protect natural resources per se. This is the case of the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which, while not adopted for that purpose, have a bearing on trade in natural resources. While all WTO members are required to open their markets to competition from abroad, WTO-covered agreements give them a certain leeway to regulate this flow in order to pursue societal goals. In other words, under certain circumstances, a WTO member is allowed to justify otherwise WTO-inconsistent measures in the name of legitimate domestic values. This paper focuses on trade rules that control the asymmetrical global distribution and exhaustibility of natural resources, especially export restrictions and their justifications in WTO law. The objective of this paper is to analyse the international and unilateral trade measures addressing non-trade concerns and their relevance for natural resources management in Africa. L’extraction et la transformation des matières premières en produits finis de base sont non seulement attractives pour leur valeur économique mais aussi pour des raison politiques. Ce qui fait des ressources naturelles une source de cupidité extrême. A cet effet, au lieu de contribuer au développement des pays qui y sont dotés, les régions riches en matières premières deviennent le théâtre des spéculations nationales et étrangères au point où les ressources naturelles deviennent des facteurs de déstabilisation d’où l’appellation de « malédiction des ressources naturelles ». Bien que les pays exercent la souveraineté sur leurs ressources en vertu du droit international, il devient essentiel de développer des activités plus durables afin de continuer l’exploitation de ces ressources. Conscient de ces problèmes environnementaux dans le monde, un grand nombre de pays dans le monde s’engagent à sauvegarder la planète, comme peut-on constater avec l’adoption de la Convention africaine pour la Conservation de la Nature et des Ressources naturelles. Sur le plan international, la multiplicité et la complexité des normes juridiques applicables à l’exploitation des ressources naturelles peuvent constituer un obstacle pour son application. En effet, si la rareté des ressources et la montée des problèmes environnementaux liées à leur exploitation ont conduit à une dépendance accrue au droit international parce que les enjeux sont mondiaux et dépassent les barrières politiques, les règles du droit international s’appliquent indirectement aux ressources naturelles puisqu’elles n’ont pas été promulguées pour protéger les ressources naturelles en tant que tel. Ceci est le cas des règles de l‘Organisation mondiale du Commerce (OMS), qui, bien que non adoptées ont une incidence sur le commerce des ressources naturelles. Bien que les membres de l’OMS ont obligations d’ouvrir leurs marchés à la concurrence étrangère, les accords couverts par l’OMS leur donnent un certain levier pour réguler ce flux afin de poursuivre des objectifs sociétaux. Autrement dit, dans certaines circonstances, un membre de l’OMS est autorisé de justifier les mesures incompatibles avec les règles de l’OMS pour des raisons de valeurs nationales légitimes. Cet article se focalise sur les règles commerciales qui contrôlent la distribution mondiale asymétrique et l’épuisement des ressources naturelles particulièrement les restrictions à l’exportation et leurs justifications d’après la loi de l’OMS. L’objectif de cet article est d’examiner les mesures internationales et unilatérales qui adressent les préoccupations non commerciales et leur importance sur la gestion des ressources naturelles en Afrique.


AIChE Journal ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 3352-3368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayashree Kalyanaraman ◽  
Yoshiaki Kawajiri ◽  
Ryan P. Lively ◽  
Matthew J. Realff

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 423-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanimir Kabaivanov ◽  
Veneta Markovska

Abstract This paper focuses on modelling environment changes in a way that allows to price weather derivatives in a flexible and efficient way. Applications and importance of climate and weather contracts extends beyond financial markets and hedging as they can be used as complementary tools for risk assessment. In addition, option-based approach toward resource management can offer very special insights on rare-events and allow to reuse derivative pricing methods to improve natural resources management. To demonstrate this general concept, we use Monte Carlo and stochastic modelling of temperatures to evaluate weather options. Research results are accompanied by R and Python code.


1994 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 511
Author(s):  
Susan Blackman ◽  
Janet Keeping ◽  
Monique Ross ◽  
J. Owen Saunders

Issues related to the management of natural resources have played an important role in federal provincial relations over the past quarter century. Due to Alberta's position as a major producer of natural resources in Canada, the province's role in the evolution of federalism over that period has been particularly influential. In this paper, the history of federal-Alberta relations concerning energy over the past twenty-five years is reviewed, noting in particular where conflicts between the two jurisdictions have been evident, and stressing general themes where they can be distinguished. The Alberta approach to federalism reflects a different historical context than that of the Eastern provinces as a result of its economic dependence on natural resources and its relatively recent position of affluence. The ability of the province to make full use of its resources to diversify beyond a reliance on raw energy and agricultural markets is a driving force behind the insistence on control of resource exploitation and revenues. Thus, federal measures that threaten to impinge on the province's abilities to set its own priorities have typically been regarded with some hostility. However, Alberta's approach is not only ideological but also pragmatic, and objections that might be expected on an ideological basis have been notably absent when federal actions coincide with Alberta's own immediate interests.


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