Determinants of Trade Balance in Vietnam During 1997-2015

An alternative strategy to reduce the trade balance deficit simultaneously to increase the net foreign exchange is the import-substitution for raw materials used to produce an export goods. This paper proposes an import substitution study on footwear products that have a dependency on imported raw materials by 70 percent, with the largest composition being leather raw materials by 67 percent. This paper analyzes the relationship between subsidies on the leather industry to leather import-substitution, multiplier effect to footwear sector, and Indonesia trade balance. Author make use of simulation the on Input-Output 2010 table and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. The simulation shows 100 billion subsidies on the leather sector, lead for the substitution-import of leather by 7,94 million rupiah, increase the net export foreign exchange by 1.1 billion rupiah of the footwear sector, and for overall, increase Indonesia trade balance deficit by 68 billion rupiah. Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium, footwear, leather, net foreign exchange, subsidy.ABSTRAK: Salah satu terobosan untuk mengurangi defisit neraca perdagangan dan meningkatkan nilai neto devisa ekspor adalah dengan substitusi impor bahan baku yang digunakan untuk memproduksi barang ekspor. Paper ini mengusulkan kajian substitusi impor pada produk alas kaki yang mempunyai ketergantungan bahan baku impornya sebesar 70 persen, dengan komposisi terbesar adalah bahan baku kulit sebesar 67 persen. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui dampak stimulus subsidi pada industri kulit terhadap subtitusi impor kulit, dukungan multiplier sektor kulit terhadap sektor alas kaki, serta terhadap devisa ekspor Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan simulasi model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE). Hasil simulasi menunjukkan stimulus subsidi sebesar 100 milyar rupiah pada sektor kulit memberikan substitusi bahan baku kulit sebesar 7,94 juta rupiah, menaikkan devisa ekspor sektor alas kaki sebesar 1.1 miliar rupiah, serta secara keseluruhan menambah defisit neraca berjalan Indonesia sebesar 68 miliar rupiah. Kata kunci: alas kaki, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), devisa ekspor, kulit, subsidi.

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RESEARCH OF FEATURES OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC TRADE OF REGIONAL ECONOMY SERVICES

Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics ◽

10.36887/2415-8453-2019-2-5 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 44-51

Author(s):

Andrii ZAVHORODNII

Keyword(s):

Foreign Trade ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Trade Balance ◽

Well Being ◽

General Situation ◽

The Black Sea ◽

Reduction Peak ◽

Black Sea Region ◽

Economic Relations ◽

Export Dynamics

Abstract Introduction. Nowadays the foreign economic activity of the regions serves as a factor contributing to improving the population well-being, improving its life quality, as well as territory socio-economic development and increasing its competitiveness. The purpose of the article is to analyze the foreign trade in services at the regional level and to identify its features. Results. The comparative analysis of the services export dynamics was conducted in the studied regions for the period from 1996 to 2018: the periods of growth, reduction, peak values were identified, the leader – Odessa region was determined. At the same time, it is emphasized that due to the decrease in the indicator in Odessa region and the growth in the Mykolaiv region, the gap between them narrowed significantly for the period from 2012. The dynamics of the services import volume in the economy of the studied regions has been analyzed. Determination of the leader – Odessa region was done, the trends of dynamics for the studied period are considered. The dynamics calculation of the foreign trade balance in services in the Mykolayiv region is given. The calculation of the chain gains index of the services foreign trade balance in the Mykolaiv region is given, which indicates a considerable amplitude of fluctuations and reduction from 2014 to 2016. Results. The foreign trade balance in services in the studied areas was calculated and analyzed: the Odessa region was the leader before 2010. After in accordance with the services export dynamics in Odessa and Mykolaiv regions, their convergence to the actual equalization in 2018 is observed. The positive value of the balance in all the regions for the whole study period is noteworthy. The analysis makes it possible to confirm the significant dependence of the foreign regions economic activity of the Black Sea region on the general situation in the country with divergent tendencies of indicators changes, which allows to define it as heterogeneous. Keywords: foreign economic activity of the region, export, import, dynamics, regional foreign economic relations, foreign economic relations of the region.

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