Impact of Exports on the Exporter’s Domestic Market

This paper developed a theoretical model of partial equilibrium of the export-oriented market for a short-term period, as well as outlined the main approaches to modeling equilibrium in a long-term period. Thus, the competition between the producers of the selected exporting country and its global competitor in the external import-dependent market is considered. In the partial equilibrium model, for the first time, the domestic and foreign sales markets are presented together. The analysis of the theoretical model made it possible to obtain the following results for the short-term period: in a state close to equilibrium, external supplies of the exporting country are positively related to their own production volumes and negatively – ​with the production volumes of the global exporter; the price of the domestic market of the exporting country is negatively related to the volume of its own production and the volume of production of the global exporter. The paper analyzes three scenarios that allow checking the adequacy of the partial equilibrium model for different conditions of its application. The first scenario considers a negative supply shock associated with a drop in production in a global exporter. The second analyzes the impact of the pandemic on the global exporter and exporting country. The third scenario is devoted to assessing the impact of a demand shock on a designated exporting country. The scenarios confirmed the adequacy of the model. The approach to modeling an export-oriented market for a long-term period is based on the assumption that the exporter's price will converge with the price of the domestic market over time and, ultimately, will differ from it only by the amount of additional costs associated with the export of a unit of production. It was established that, while maintaining exogenous conditions for positive long-term export dynamics, the price of the domestic market of the exporting country will decrease in case of an increase in the incremental values of exports and production volumes of the global exporter. The consequences of the positive dynamics of exports for the domestic demand of the exporting country are considered. The established relationships between exports and sales in the exporter's domestic market were empirically confirmed by the example of the Russian sunflower oil market.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of integration processes of regional integration associations (on EU EXAMPLE, NAFTA, EAEP)

This article is devoted to the analysis of possible scenarios for the development of the leading regional integration associations: The European Union (EU), the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) based on the study of the export dynamics of the studied groups of countries. The choice of the designated integration associations is due to various stages of the integration processes of the studied groups of countries. As you know, the EU is the only integration association that has gone through all the stages of integration interaction. In turn, the peculiarity of NAFTA is that there is a gradual decrease in tariffs in the implementation of trade between the member countries (USA, Canada, Mexico). Note that the designated association does not regulate the trade of member countries with third countries. In turn, the EAEU is the youngest and most dynamically developing integration association. The novelty of the approach presented in the framework of this work lies in the proposed methodology for predicting the dynamics of export volumes of the studied groups of countries based on an assessment of the dynamics of the following macroeconomic indicators: GDP, PPP, inflation, and unemployment. The essence of the methodology presented in the framework of this work is as follows: at the first stage, the choice of macroeconomic indicators necessary for conducting the appropriate analysis is carried out. The next stage consists in forecasting the dynamics of the selected macroeconomic indicators for the period chosen by the authors using the growth curve models. The final stage in the framework of the presented methodology is the compilation of the corresponding regression equations using the indicated macroeconomic indicators. In turn, the result of the research carried out within the framework of this work is the analysis of development scenarios for each of the studied integration groups using the author’s methodology, which is based on a combination of the use of growth curve models and the method of regression analysis.

Financial instability as a sustained export growth limiting factor of the Russian far east regions

The paper analyses the export dynamics of the Russian Far East regions in the context of cyclical business activity. A multi-regression model with lag variables is formed during correlation-regression analysis, since a tendency for a lagging export reaction in response to fluctuations in financial instability indicators was revealed. The analysis showed that exports are influenced by factors of economic activity, fluctuations in real exchange rates, oil prices and levels of external debt relative to GDP. During the crisis, there was a short-term pattern of growth, but in the subsequent period, the decline in the output of exporters, the shortage of financial resources, the increase in the cost of materials and other costs led to a reduction in the sales of products for export. Financial instability is becoming the main source of financial risk for exporters, requiring regional government intervention and business support mechanisms.