scholarly journals The Impact of Food Inflation on Poverty in Turkey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Başak SEZGİN ◽  
Şennur SEZGİN
Keyword(s):  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation

Global Food Commodity Prices and Domestic Food Inflation: Some Insights from Morocco

New Medit ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed EL GHIN ◽  
Mounir EL-KARIMI
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation ◽  
Global Food ◽  
Domestic Food

This paper examines the world commodity prices pass-through to food inflation in Morocco, over the period 2004-2018, by using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model on monthly data. Several interesting results are found from this study. First, the impact of global food prices on domestic food inflation is shown significant, which reflects the large imported component in the domestic food consumption basket. Second, the transmission effect is found to vary across commodities. Consumer prices of cereals and oils significantly and positively respond to external price shocks, while those of dairy and beverages are weakly influenced. Third, there is evidence of asymmetries in the pass-through from world to domestic food prices, where external positive shocks generate a stronger local prices response than negative ones. This situation is indicative of policy and market distortions, namely the subsidies, price controls, and weak competitive market structures. Our findings suggest that food price movements should require much attention in monetary policymaking, especially that the country has taken preliminary steps towards the adoption of floating exchange rate regime.

Tracking the Transmission Channels of Fiscal Deficit and Food Inflation Linkages: A Structural VAR Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 165-172
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Agricultural Industry ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Transmission Channels ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation

This empirical analysis aspired to unearth the transmission channels of fiscal deficit and food inflation linkages in the Indian perspective by reasonably exerting the data for 1991 to 2017. The precise results of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis proffered that there were three different mechanisms of transmission such as consumption, general inflation, and import channels that led to food inflation in response to the high fiscal deficit. The first channel revealed that government deficit spending had a positive impact on income which further led to food inflation through surging the household consumption expenditure. It was concluded that fiscal deficit passed through general inflation finally leading to a food price surge in the economy and seemed to work as cost-push inflation for the food and agricultural industry. The outcome also revealed that the impact of fiscal deficit passed to food inflation through external linkages such as import and export.

scholarly journals Unequal Impact of Price Changes in Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 180
Author(s):  
Rulyusa Pratikto ◽  
Mohamad Ikhsan ◽  
Benedictus Raksaka Mahi
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
Processed Food ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation

The main idea of this study is to determine the impact of relative inflation on poverty incidents and to investigate whether inflation inequality has occurred in Indonesia. Interesting results were found at regional level. Firstly, Jakarta had different poverty response with respect to price increases. Processed food and transportation inflation were more imperative for the poor in Jakarta. Secondly, the poor in province with low poverty figures were more prone to inflation. In general, the results show that food inflation has the major adverse impact on the poor. Moreover, we found that inflation in Indonesia has not been pro-poor.AbstrakTujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menentukan dampak dari perubahan harga terhadap kemiskinan, serta juga untuk mengetahui apakah terjadi ketimpangan inflasi di Indonesia. Hasil yang menarik diperoleh dari analisa pada tingkat provinsi. Pertama, kemiskinan pada provinsi Jakarta memiliki karakteristik yang berbeda. Inflasi pada makanan jadi dan transportasi justru memiliki dampak yang lebih merugikan masyarakat miskin. Kedua, masyarakat miskin yang berada di provinsi dengan tingkat kemiskinan relatif rendah justru lebih sensitif terhadap inflasi. Secara umum, inflasi bahan makanan merupakan faktor terbesar dalam peningkatan kemiskinan. Selain itu, masyarakat miskin telah mengalami total inflasi yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan masyarakat tidak miskin.Kata kunci: Kemiskinan; Inflasi; Elastisitas Harga terhadap Kemiskinan; Pro-Poor Price Index; Price Index for the PoorJEL classifications: E3; I3; O1; R2

scholarly journals Impact of macroeconomic policies on national food security in Pakistan: simulation analyses under a simultaneous equations framework  

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (No. 10) ◽  
pp. 471-488
Author(s):  
Akbar Muhammad ◽  
Jabbar Abdul
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Simultaneous Equations ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation ◽  
National Food Security

The UN’s Vision 2050 regarding food security emphasizes a doubling of food production by 2050 to ensure sufficient food availability. It should also be considered that economic accessibility to food depends mainly on food prices in developing countries. Vision 2050 requires proper planning at the national level to ensure that targets are met in the coming years. This study was conducted to analyse the impact of macroeconomic policy decisions on domestic food production and food inflation in Pakistan. A simultaneous equations model, estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) with annual data from 1963–1964 to 2013–2014, was developed. Simulation analyses were conducted by using the model to analyse the impact of monetary policy, fiscal policy and energy price policy; policy recommendations are also given. A significant increase in public expenditure for the development of infrastructure and the lowering of energy prices would significantly improve the availability and accessibility parameters of food security in Pakistan. The recent fall in energy prices will also be advantageous for both the availability as well as economic accessibility to food. Tight monetary policy for a limited time period may be helpful to control food inflation, but may also exert some minor adverse effects on food production. Moreover, monetary policy decisions must be taken while considering all sectors of the economy. The results of the study provide some important guidelines for national food security policy that may help in realising the UN’s Vision 2050.

Rising food inflation and India's monetary policy

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek Moorthy ◽  
Shrikant Kolhar
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Welfare Impact ◽  
Technical Issues ◽  
Price Hike ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the implications of sharply rising food prices for monetary policy in India and similar emerging economies at present.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses analytical arguments from relevant macroeconomic literature and evidence from late 1960s US data to examine whether the 1970s stagflation was due to the OPEC price hike. It develops a two person (rich and poor), two commodity (food and non‐food) model to examine the impact of rising food prices on GDP, on measures of inflation, and on welfare, in the model.FindingsPreviously neglected evidence indicates that stagflation (simultaneously rising unemployment and inflation) preceded the OPEC price hike. The model results indicate that when food prices rise, the GDP deflator falls relative to the consumer price index (CPI).Research limitations/implicationsThe impact of supply shocks should be investigated by carefully examining links between abnormal rainfall and weather and output and prices on commodity by commodity basis. Further, technical issues pertaining to construction of a composite CPI representative of the population need to be explored.Practical implicationsMonetary policy in India (and similar emerging economies) should focus upon a population weighted CPI or some variant thereof.Social implicationsHigh GDP growth should not lead to complacency, since when food prices are rising, the overall welfare impact may be negative.Originality/valueThe model presented in this paper explains the sustained divergence in India, in recent years, between the CPI versus the GDP deflator measures of inflation. It also highlights a possible similar divergence between GDP and overall welfare.

South Africa will tread water with 'austerity' budget

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation ◽  
Key Questions

Subject South Africa's national budget. Significance Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene on February 25 presented his maiden full budget address to parliament. The revenue shortfall for 2014/15 rose to 14.7 billion rand (1.28 billion dollars) from 12 billion rand expected in October 2014's mid-term statement. Nene focused on how to raise additional revenue and contan spending without stymying growth. However, he left key questions unanswered. Impacts Davis Tax Commission recommendations may result in more tax increases and new taxes in the 2016 budget. A special new fast-tracked, ten-year business visa for BRICS nationals could partly mitigate the impact of restrictive immigration rules. Maize shortages due to drought (the worst in eight years) may drive price hikes, reducing the effect of low oil prices on food inflation.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 85-113
Author(s):  
Sani Bawa ◽  
Ismaila S. Abdullahi ◽  
Danlami Tukur ◽  
Sani I. Barda ◽  
Yusuf J. Adams
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation

This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation in Nigeria. A NonLinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach was applied on quarterly data spanning 1999Q1 to 2018Q4. Results showed that oil price increases led to increase in headline, core and food measures of inflation in Nigeria. However, a decline in oil price resulted in a decline in the marginal cost of production and culminated in moderation of domestic inflation. Furthermore, negative oil price shocks led to higher inflation in Nigeria when exchange rate is dropped from the models, indicating that exchange rate absorbed the impact of oil price declines earlier, as lower oil prices culminated in lower external reserve, depreciation of the naira and ultimately higher inflationary pressures. Also, core inflation tends to respond more to oil price increases than food inflation. These results were robust to changes in econometric specifications and sample period. The study recommends that monetary policy actions of the Central Bank of Nigeria should focus on taming core inflation in periods of substantial oil price increases while strengthening its efforts at ensuring domestic sustainability in food production through its agricultural intervention programmes to further minimize the impact of international oil prices on food inflation. Similarly, the fiscal authorities should ensure that the fiscal stance is not excessively procyclical in periods of rising oil prices.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICES ON THE FOOD INFLATION IN KAZAKHSTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 73-79
Author(s):  
Sabit Baimaganbetov ◽  
Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev ◽  
Gulzhan Baibosynova ◽  
Rima Yermankulova ◽  
Botagoz Dandayeva
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation
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