scholarly journals Guyana

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Chow
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Housing Sector ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Stages Of Growth ◽  
Data Limitations ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Guyana’s residential real estate prices have been rising, particularly in the capital city Georgetown, following the discovery of oil in 2015. In line with the growing demand for housing, commercial banks’ housing loans have increased, prompting higher household debt. This paper presents two analyses which suggest that housing prices in Georgetown and banks’ lending to the housing sector appear to be in their early stages of growth. However, given the data limitations and caveats that underpin the analyses, the findings could also indicate early signals of possible risks. Further data collection would support surveillance and deeper studies. At the same time, enhancing prudential measures would help safeguard financial and macroeconomic stability. These include strengthening the monitoring of the housing market, bank lending practices and household debt, as well as fortifying the macroprudential framework, including with more effective toolkits for early intervention.

Real effects of real estate: evidence from unemployment rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 605-623
Author(s):  
Can Dogan ◽  
John Can Topuz
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Estate Price ◽  
Real Effects ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between residential real estate prices and unemployment rates at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a long time-series of MSA-level quarterly data from 1990 to 2018. It uses an instrumental variable approach to estimate the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates using the geography-based land constraints measure of Saiz (2010) as the instrument. Findings The results show that changes in residential real estate prices do not have a causal effect on unemployment rates in the same quarter. However, it takes 9-12 months for an increase (decrease) in real estate prices to decrease (increase) unemployment rates. This effect is significant during both pre- and post-financial crisis periods and robust to control for the economic characteristics of MSAs. Research limitations/implications This paper contributes to the emerging literature that studies the real effects of real estate. Particularly, the methodology and the findings can be used to investigate causal relationships between housing prices and small business development or economic growth. The findings are also of interest to policymakers and practitioners as they illustrate how and when real estate price shocks propagate to the real economy through unemployment rates. Practical implications This study’s findings have important implications for academics, policymakers and investors as they provide evidence of a snowball effect associated with shocks to real estate prices: increasing (decreasing) unemployment rates following a decrease (increase) in real estate prices exacerbates the real estate price movements and their economic consequences. Originality/value This paper analyzes a significantly longer period, from 1990 to 2018, than the existing literature. Additionally, it uses the MSA-level land unavailability measure of Saiz (2010) as an instrument to explore the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates and when those effects are observed in the real economy.

scholarly journals Applying Comparable Sales Method to the Automated Estimation of Real Estate Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 5679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunjong Kim ◽  
Seungwoo Choi ◽  
Mun Yong Yi
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Housing Type ◽  
Residential Housing ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Price Estimation ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Current Price

In this paper, we propose a novel procedure designed to apply comparable sales method to the automated price estimation of real estates, in particular, that of apartments. Apartments are the most popular residential housing type in Korea. The price of a single apartment is influenced by many factors, making it hard to estimate accurately. Moreover, as an apartment is purchased for living, with a sizable amount of money, it is mostly traded infrequently. Thus, its past transaction price may not be particularly helpful to the estimation after a certain period of time. For these reasons, the up-to-date price of an apartment is commonly estimated by certified appraisers, who typically rely on comparable sales method (CSM). CSM requires comparable properties to be identified and used as references in estimating the current price of the property in question. In this research, we develop a procedure to systematically apply this procedure to the automated estimation of apartment prices and assess its applicability using nine years’ real transaction data from the capital city and the most-populated province in South Korea and multiple scenarios designed to reflect the conditions of low and high fluctuations of housing prices. The results from extensive evaluations show that the proposed approach is superior to the traditional approach of relying on real estate professionals and also to the baseline machine learning approach.

scholarly journals Does immigration affect residential real estate prices? Evidence from Australia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Narvada Gopy-Ramdhany ◽  
Boopen Seetanah
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Interstate Migration ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Purpose This study aims to investigate the effect of immigration on housing prices in Australia both at the national and regional levels. Design/methodology/approach Data for eight Australian states on a quarterly basis from 2004–2017 is used. To study the possible dynamic and endogenous relationship between housing prices and immigration, a panel vector autoregressive error correction model (PVECM) is adopted. Findings Analysis of the results indicates that in the short run immigration positively and significantly affects housing prices, whereas in the long run no significant relationship was observed between the two variables. From the regional breakdown and analysis, it is discerned that in some states there is a significant and positive effect of immigration on residential real estate prices in the long run. Causality analysis confirms that the direction of causation is from immigration to housing prices. Practical implications The study illustrates that immigration and interstate migration, as well as high salaries, have been causing a rise in housing demand and subsequently housing prices. To monitor exceedingly high housing prices, local authorities should be controlling migration and salary levels. Originality/value Past research studies had highlighted the importance of native interstate migration in explaining the nexus between immigration – housing prices. In this study, it has been empirically verified how immigration has been affecting the locational decisions of natives and subsequently how this has been affecting housing prices.

News shocks, government subsidies and housing prices in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cássio Besarria ◽  
Marcelo Silva ◽  
Diego Jesus
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Housing Sector ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
News Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Purpose In recent years, housing prices in Brazil have shown a surprising growth. An important issue is trying to understand what elements can explain this behavior. This study aims to investigate the hypothesis that a generalized optimism associated with government policies directed to the housing sector may be behind the behavior of real estate prices. This study develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate these issues. The results showed that subsidies combined with the easing of credit conditions were able to positively influence real estate prices. Moreover, unanticipated shocks had a greater impact on housing prices than anticipated shocks. Design/methodology/approach The DSGE model was developed to analyze the relationship between economic agents’ expectations about future economic developments, also known in the literature as “news shocks,” expansionary fiscal policy and housing prices in Brazil. The economy is composed of families, entrepreneurs, final goods firms, a financial sector and a fiscal authority. Families are divided into two groups: patients or savers and impatient or debtors. They differ in terms of their intertemporal discount factors. Both provide labor for firms producing non-durable goods. Impatient families are restricted in the amount of borrowing they can take. The production side of economy model is given by the consumer goods production sector. The financial sector is composed of a representative bank that pays the deposits made by patient families and channels resources for the granting of housing loans with the accumulation of assets subject to regulatory restrictions. Findings The results show that both price subsidies and subsidized interest rates exerted a positive influence on housing prices in Brazil. In response to a housing demand shock, housing prices display a greater increase the greater are the subsidies to low income families. The authors show that anticipated shocks have a larger impact on housing prices than unexpected shocks. Therefore, the results support the idea that the wave of good news, optimistic behavior and government policies aimed at the housing sector were behind the behavior of housing prices in Brazil. Originality/value There are some studies applied to the Brazilian economy that mention some of these stimuli. In this study, the authors focused on studies proposed by Mendonça et al. (2011), Mendonça (2013), Silva et al. (2014) and Besarria et al. (2016). In general, the authors show that there is a negative relationship between monetary policy instruments and real estate prices. This paper differs from these authors by considering the effects of government subsidies, subsidized interest rates and anticipated shocks from a DSGE model, thus explicitly addressing their effects on housing prices in Brazil.

scholarly journals “The Impact of Shadow Banks on the Commercial Bank Lending in India with Reference to the Housing Finance Sector.”

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 51-58
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Housing Finance ◽  
Shadow Banking ◽  
Housing Sector ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
The Impact

Significant variations of bank profitability in Indian commercial banks during the period 2009-2018 motivated the critical need to study the impact of shadow banking on the profitability of commercial banks in India. Shadow banking is defined as any institution that offer bank like activities but not regulated as banks. These institutions seem to be on the rise in India thus this research considered to investigate their implications to traditional banks’ profitability. The secondary data in this analysis covered a period of 10years from 2009 to 2018. The multiple linear panel regression model for the bank profitability measures; Return on Asset (ROA), was used as a dependent variable to analyze the data. Shadow banking ratios, variables were used as independent variables in the model. To measure if the loans given by banks to housing sector decreased as a result of housing finance companies, the net aggregate of loans disbursed by banks to housing sector and net aggregate of loans disbursed by housing finance companies were recorded for the past 5 years and significant analysis was made accordingly looking at the data .Shadow banking ratios were derived from monetary aggregates data that is M3, total bank loans and total bank deposits. Regression results indicated thatShadow banking only completes the banking system and has no significant impact on loans of the commercial banks in the Housing Finance sector.

scholarly journals Does Immigration Affect Residential Real Estate Prices? Evidence From Australia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narvada Gopy-Ramdhany ◽  
Boopen SEETANAH
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Worldwide migration flows have been gaining momentum over the past years, leading to population increases in some countries. Consequently, the population increase might have led to more housing demand in the host country. This study investigates the effect of immigration on housing prices in Australia by using data for eight states on a quarterly basis from 2004 – 2017. To study the possible dynamic and endogenous relationship between housing prices and immigration, a panel vector autoregressive error correction approach (PVECM) is adopted. Analysis of the results indicates that in the short run immigration positively and significantly affects housing prices, whereas in the long run no significant relationship was observed. From the regional breakdown and analysis, it is discerned that in some states there is significant and positive effect of immigration on residential real estate prices in the long run. Interestingly, analysis of reverse causation indicates that housing prices affect migration in a negative and significant way.

Overview of Tools for Increasing Effective Demand and Characteristics of Residential Property Buyers

2020 ◽  
pp. 3-9
Author(s):  
KHORKINA G.A. ◽  
◽  
BOGDANOVA Yu.N. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Housing Sector ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Official Statistics ◽  
Effective Demand ◽  
Real Estate Developers ◽  
New Buildings

This paper is based on a study consisting of two semantic blocks. In the first block, the existing tools for increasing effective demand in the market of new buildings in Moscow are considered. The most popular tools for increasing effective demand are identified. The second block provides an overview of the characteristics of real and potential buyers of residential real estate in Moscow. Identifying the characteristics of real buyers is based on data published by analytical and consulting companies, as well as real estate developers. Identification of the characteristics of potential buyers was carried out on the basis of official statistics and information published by the Recruitment Agency. The analysis of the characteristics of buyers was carried out in the context of economic activities, in the context of specialization and qualifications, and the level of wages. The areas of employment, specialties are identified, and the level of wages of a person who is potentially more accessible to purchase housing is estimated. The number of people who, in accordance with the size of their salary, can buy housing in the property is estimated. As a result of the work, the expediency of analyzing the buyer’s portrait (including potential one) on a regular basis is justified in order to implement more flexible regulation of the housing sector, taking into account the needs of city residents and the socio-economic situation.

Short Sales and Residential Real Estate Prices

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Narwold ◽  
Stephen J. Conroy ◽  
Dirk Yandell
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Short Sales ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Commercial Banks Credit and the Performance of Real Sector in Nigeria: 1990-2017

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Agricultural Credit ◽  
The Real ◽  
Scientific Discussion ◽  
The Cost

The study examined the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on commercial banks credit and the performance of real sector in Nigeria. The main objective of the study is to examine the effect of commercial banks credit on the performance of the real sector in Nigeria.Data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. A systematization literary approach for data analysis was Regression Analysis. Findings revealed that bank credit and bank lending rate does not have significant impact on real sector performance in Nigeria. It was showed that there was a positive and significant relationship between agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund and agricultural production in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that banks should be directed to channel their credits towards the real sector to facilitate overall economic growth and development in Nigeria. It was recommended that there is the need policies that will favor the revamp of the agricultural sector in Nigeria should be given pride of place. Also, monetary authority through the Central Bank of Nigeria should create adequate policies and strategies towards deepening of the financial sector and reducing the cost of credit/loans so as to enhance productivity and consequently enhance the growth of the key sectors of economy such as manufacturing sector.

Perceived competition in agricultural lending: stylized facts and an agenda for future research

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd Kuethe ◽  
Chad Fiechter ◽  
David Oppedahl
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Credit System ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loan Rate ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Survey Responses

PurposeThis study examines agricultural lending by commercial banks and the competition they face from the Farm Credit System (FCS) and non-traditional lenders, including merchants, dealers and other input suppliers.Design/methodology/approachWe construct a measure of commercial banks' perceived competition with FCS or non-traditional lenders using the individual responses to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey between 1999 and 2019. Through regression analysis of an unbalanced panel of survey responses, we present a number of stylized facts on the relationship between perceived competition and farm loan rate spreads, collateral requirements, loan delinquencies and expected lending volumes.FindingsOur analysis shows that the two sources of competition have very different effects on commercial bank lending terms, loan portfolio riskiness and expected loan volumes. With these results in mind, we offer a number of suggestions for future research.Originality/valueWe leverage the unique characteristics of the Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey to examine the competition with non-traditional lenders that cannot be observed using administrative data.

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