scholarly journals Riding the Yield Curve

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (53) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Chami ◽  
Thomas Cosimano ◽  
Celine Rochon ◽  
Julieta Yung
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Risk Capital ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Rate Environment ◽  
Changes In Risk

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Banks' Interest Rate Risk: An Alternative Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
Jakob Lichtner ◽  
Marcus Riekeberg ◽  
Friedrich Thiessen ◽  
Thomas Maurer
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Realistic View

Interest rate risk is often assessed through parallel yield curve shifts of 100, 200 or 400 basis points. In order to provide a more realistic view, we did simulations based on periods of growing interest rates that actually occurred in the past. These simulations show that non-bank deposits and non-bank loans react more strongly to rising interest rates than certain interbank and security positions. Existing research usually overestimates related risks slightly as it does not take the interest-elastic reactions of non-banks into account. We found three types of effects. Firstly, the direct earnings effect stems from changed market interest rates applied to constant balance sheet positions. This effect is typically measured by straightforward models. Secondly, to increase accuracy, we identified an indirect earnings effect. Customers react to interest rate changes, and therefore balance sheet positions increase or decrease. The size of this effect depends on how strongly they react, i. e. their interest elasticity. Thirdly, the induced earnings effect results from a bank’s reactions in an attempt to compensate for the changed business volume.

scholarly journals Confederation debt management since 1970

2019 ◽  
Vol 155 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Basil Guggenheim ◽  
Mario Meichle ◽  
Thomas Nellen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Total Debt ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Rate Environment ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Lock In

Abstract This paper analyzes the Confederation’s debt management. The Confederation actively manages roll over and interest rate risk by increasing bond maturity with increasing marketable debt-to-GDP levels. It further engages in active but asymmetric, one-sided interest rate positioning; i.e., it uses mostly bonds to affect debt maturity and does so only when the interest rate environment is favorable to lock-in interest rates by issuing longer-term bonds. Debt management is mainly driven by marketable debt rather than total debt. Issuing behavior became more regular and demand-oriented during the early 1990s when marketable and total debt increased in tandem.

scholarly journals Who Bears Interest Rate Risk?

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (8) ◽  
pp. 2921-2954 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
Sam Langfield ◽  
Federico Pierobon ◽  
Guillaume Vuillemey
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Loan Rate ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
European Banking

Abstract We study the allocation of interest rate risk within the European banking sector using novel data. Banks’ exposure to interest rate risk is small on aggregate, but heterogeneous in the cross-section. Contrary to conventional wisdom, net worth is increasing in interest rates for approximately half of the institutions in our sample. Cross-sectional variation in banks’ exposures is driven by cross-country differences in loan-rate fixation conventions for mortgages. Banks use derivatives to partially hedge on-balance-sheet exposures. Residual exposures imply that changes in interest rates have redistributive effects within the banking sector. Received October 31, 2017; editorial decision August 30, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Chami ◽  
Thomas Cosimano ◽  
Céline Rochon ◽  
Julieta Yung
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Rate Environment ◽  
Risk Taking Behavior

scholarly journals Measuring Interest Rate Risk with Embedded Option Using HPL-MC Method in Fuzzy and Stochastic Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Enlin Tang ◽  
Wei Du
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Continuous Innovation ◽  
Liability Management ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Embedded Options

Under the condition of continuous innovation of financial derivatives and marketization of interest rate, interest rates fluctuate more frequently and fiercely, and the measurement of interest rate risk also attracts more attention. Under the premise that the fluctuation of interest rate follows fuzzy stochastic process, based on the option characteristics of financial instruments with embedded option, this paper takes effective duration and effective convexity as tools to measure interest rate risk when embedded options exist, tries to choose CIR extended model as term structure model, and uses the Monte Carlo method for hybrid low deviation sequences (HPL-MC) to analyze the prepayment characteristics of MBS, a representative financial instrument with embedded options, when interest rates fluctuate; on this basis, the effectiveness of effective duration management of interest rate risk is demonstrated with asset liability management cases of commercial banks.

Basel I to Basel III: Impact of Credit Risk and Interest Rate Risk of Banks in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. S83-S111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noor Ulain Rizvi ◽  
Smita Kashiramka ◽  
Shveta Singh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Basel Iii ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Net Interest Margin

The study explores the theoretical background of Basel III and investigates the drivers of interest rate risk and credit risk of banks in various parlances, namely, pre and post the financial crisis, phases of implementation and ownership on a sample of 36 listed banks in India. The findings indicate that the high capital adequacy requirement (CAR) exhibits a positive relation with gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) and net interest margin (NIM). This is perhaps one of the major drawbacks of Basel implementation, which may become a cause of lower GDP in the future as explained in the findings of the literature. Originality/value: This article is perhaps the first attempt of its kind to empirically examine the bank-specific, macroeconomic variables and link it with the Basel implementation in the Indian banking system for the time period 2002–2015. This study endeavours to enhance the existing empirical research in the field and give insights into the role of various factors on GNPAs and interest rates (with regards to Indian banks).

scholarly journals INTEREST RATE RISK IN TURKISH FINANCIAL MARKETS ACROSS DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 183-204
Author(s):  
Durmus Özdemir ◽  
Harald Schmidbauer
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Good Tool ◽  
Generalized Pareto ◽  
Rate Risk

A Measuring the risk associated with interest rates is important since it is beneficial in taking measures before negative effects can take place in an economy. We obtain a risk measure for interest rates by fitting the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to positive extreme day-to-day changes of the interest rate, using data from the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) Second Hand Bond Market, namely Government Bond interest rate closing quotations, for the time period 2001 through 2009. Although the use of the GPD in the context of absolute interest rates is well  ocumented in literature, our approach is different insofar and contributes to the literature as changes in interest rates constitute the target of our analysis, reflecting the idea that risk arises from abrupt changes in interest rate rather than in interest rate levels themselves. Our study clearly shows that the GPD, when applied to interest rate changes, provides a good tool for interest rate risk assessment, and permit a period-specific risk evaluation.  Keyword: Interest rate risk; covered interest parity; Turkey; generalized Pareto distributionJEL Classification: G1; C1

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document