scholarly journals Jordan

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (180) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Near Term ◽  
External Balances ◽  
Economic Outlook

Since the approval of the EFF arrangement the near-term economic outlook has worsened considerably due to the COVID-19 crisis and the strict lockdown measures to contain it. In 2020, output is expected to contract sharply, fiscal and external balances are expected to deteriorate, public debt to increase, and a $1.5 billion balance of payments gap to emerge. With the first EFF review still several months away, and an ad hoc augmentation not being feasible in view of the difficulties in recalibrating the existing program to ensure that it remains on track to meet its objectives, the authorities have requested urgent support under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Facility (RFI). The proposed purchase of SDR 291.55 million, 85 percent of quota or about $400 million would cover about 1/4 of the financing need. The rest is expected to be covered by Jordan’s development partners and by targeting smaller accumulation of reserves than under the EFF arrangement.

scholarly journals Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Middle East and Central Asia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Volatile Oil ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Economic Outlook

Growth in the near term remains subdued for oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, amid volatile oil prices, precarious global growth, elevated fiscal vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical tensions. In addition, declining productivity is dampening medium-term growth prospects. To reduce dependence on oil prices and pave the way for more sustainable growth, fiscal consolidation needs to resume, underpinned by improved medium-term fiscal frameworks. In parallel, structural reforms and further financial sector development would boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic private investment and foster diversification, thus contributing to improved productivity and potential growth.

Guidance Note on the Fund’s Transparency Policy

Policy Papers ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Guidance Note ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis has had a significant impact on low-income countries (LICs)’ debt vulnerabilities. Recent debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) indicate that external and fiscal financing requirements have increased. In addition, standard measures of a country’s capacity to repay debt?GDP, exports, and fiscal revenue?are expected to be permanently lower. On average, debt ratios are therefore expected to deteriorate in the near term, particularly for public debt.

Uruguay's economy will avoid recession, narrowly

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Ministers ◽  
Cellulose Plant ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The near-term economic outlook. Significance The statist model preferred by the governing Frente Amplio (FA) coalition clashes with the plan designed by President Tabare Vazquez and his economy and foreign ministers, Danilo Astori and Rodolfo Nin Novoa respectively, to try to attract greater inward investment. This adds to intra-coalition tensions after the defection of a centre-left legislator caused the government to lose its congressional majority. Impacts The fear of losing support may help to concentrate FA minds on smoothing over party splits. A new cellulose plant would boost economic growth but not diversification. The economy will avoid recession, but growth will not pick up strongly in the near term.

scholarly journals Albania

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (373) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Large Energy ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Program Monitoring ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
High Level ◽  
Economic Outlook

Albania’s economy continues to strengthen, benefitting from rising domestic demand, large energy-related FDI, and a recovery in key EU trading partners. Fiscal and financial vulnerabilities have been lowered; however, challenges remain from the high level of public debt and financing needs, non-performing loans (NPLs), and institutional weaknesses that hinder investment. The clear government mandate following election victory in June, the favorable economic outlook, and the prospects for opening negotiation for EU accession provide a window of opportunity to resume implementing the reform agenda. Albania remains under Post-Program Monitoring.

scholarly journals Republic of Moldova

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (129) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Executive Board ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Economic Outlook

Thanks to recent reforms, Moldova entered the current crisis with strong fiscal, financial, and external buffers. However, the economic outlook has deteriorated sharply due to the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP is expected to fall by 3 percent due to lower external and domestic demand, aggravated by a significant slowdown in remittances. This, together with negative shocks to confidence and spillovers from global financial channels, has created an urgent balance of payments need. Fiscal, exchange rate, and financing pressures—already significant—are likely to worsen in the coming weeks. On March 11, the Executive Board concluded the 2020 Article IV consultation and completed the final review under the 2016 ECF/EFF arrangements.

scholarly journals St. Lucia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (54) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Near Term

St. Lucia’s near-term growth prospects are favorable, supported by large infrastructure investment and robust tourist inflows. However, longer-term growth continues to be impeded by high public debt, lingering vulnerabilities in the financial system, and structural impediments to private investment. Diminishing policy buffers further weaken the country’s resilience to external shocks against the backdrop of a precarious global outlook.

Growth to boost re-election hopes of Bolivia’s Morales

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Bolivia economic outlook. Significance The Bolivian economy is set to benefit from the increase in oil prices to which the price of its gas exports is pegged. Gas revenues account for most of Bolivia’s export earnings and are a major source of Treasury revenue. Bolivia has followed fairly conservative macroeconomic policies. Having benefited from the previous boom in gas prices, it has weathered the downturn in commodity prices, maintaining its position as one of Latin America’s fastest growing economies. Impacts Inflation is likely to remain subdued over the next twelve-month period. An improved balance of payments situation would help augment Bolivia’s international reserves. Fiscal stability will remain dependent on continued income from gas exploitation.

Economic outlook is improving in Barbados

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Food Imports ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Barbados economic outlook. Significance GDP declined by 0.1% in 2019, following the first full year of adjustment under the IMF´s extended fund facility (EFF) programme. All targets were met, including a significant improvement in the international reserves position. Moreover, the completion of the external debt restructuring in December 2019 will help to keep public debt on a clear downward path, thus helping to reduce economic uncertainty. Impacts Barbados will achieve a budget surplus in FY 2019/20 as tax policy reforms bear fruit. The country will continue to benefit from official inflows from multilateral lenders and stable FDI. The current account deficit's narrowing trend will bottom out as machinery and food imports outweigh services exports.

Implied Dividend Volatility and Expected Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 361-365
Author(s):  
Niels J. Gormsen ◽  
Ralph S.J. Koijen ◽  
Ian W.R. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Index Level ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

We study the behavior of implied dividend volatility, constructed from the prices of options on index-level dividends, during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use these data to construct a lower bound on expected excess returns on dividend claims and find that the bound moves significantly over time. However, most of the variation in dividend futures prices reflects changes in growth expectations rather than expected excess returns, making them valuable assets to uncover growth expectations. We conclude that the short-term economic outlook is uncertain and not expected to recover in the near term.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document