Evaluation of economic recovery capability under the background of COVID-19: application of a big data information processing model

In order to promote local economic recovery under the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper first constructs a big data information processing model, then measure the growth of GDP and fiscal revenue driven by consumption, investment and export in Guangdong province. The measurement results show that under the stimulus of consumption, investment and export of the same intensity, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Foshan perform better in the GDP index, while Shenzhen, Shaoguan and Qingyuan perform better in the fiscal revenue index. To this end, local governments should give priority to Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Shaoguan and Qingyuan to take effective economic stimulus measures to achieve faster growth in GDP and fiscal revenue. The research results are of practical significance for guiding local governments to implement precise policies to promote the process of economic recovery.

Strengthening of the Coal-Gasification Industry: Evidence from Indonesia

The purpose of this research is to analyze Indonesia's coal-gasification industry policy. This research needs to map the undeveloped coal-gasification industry. In fact, the coal-gasification industry can increase the economic value of coal, increase local income, absorb the labor force, and reduce pollution. It also has some strategic roles in national fiscal revenue and foreign exchange reserves and is of great significance to regional development. The research methods used are quantitative and qualitative. The results of this study indicate that government needs to provide some financial incentives for the coal-gasification industries, especially for pioneer companies for having coal-gasification works, and ensure that policies taken will be able to encourage economic growth and investment in Indonesia’s coal-gasification industry. To support investment in the coal-gasification industry, it is necessary to formulate policies and rules to provide a sign for its implementation.

How Does Low-Density Urbanization Reduce the Financial Sustainability of Chinese Cities? A Debt Perspective

Low-density urbanization threatens urban social and ecological sustainability not only directly by excessively encroaching on suburban farmland and ecological space, but may also indirectly do so by undermining the financial basis of sustainable urban development. To address this relationship, this study empirically examines the effect of low-density urbanization on local government debt by using panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2015. Results show that the scale of local government debt increases significantly with a rise in urban expansion. Furthermore, this study found that low-density urbanization affects local government debt in two ways. First, low-density urban expansion reduces the land output efficiency, which decreases potential fiscal revenue and thus increases local government debt. Second, low-density urban expansion raises the construction and maintenance expenditure of urban infrastructure, which increases the demand for urban construction financing and thus pushes up the scale of debt. The results of the heterogeneous study indicate that low-density urbanization significantly affects local government debt mainly in Central/Western regions, small and medium-sized cities, cities with high fiscal stress and development pressure, and residentially expanding cities. On the contrary, low-density urbanization has no significant effect on the Eastern regions, large cities, cities with low fiscal stress and development pressure, and spatially expanding cities. This study theoretically explored and empirically verified a critical indirect effect of low-density urbanization on urban sustainability by increasing fiscal risks, which is, and will continue to be, a common and vital challenge faced by cities in China and other rapidly urbanizing developing countries.

Research on the Influence of Major Shareholders’ Reduction of Tobacco Related Listed Companies on Enterprise Value: Based on the Intermediate Effect of Financing Constraints

Objectives: Compared with ordinary consumer goods, tobacco and tobacco products have their particularity, which not only plays an important role in the economic development of all countries in the world, but also plays a different role in people’s daily life. In China, the production and sales of tobacco leaves, cigarettes and other tobacco products as well as related tobacco machinery and raw and auxiliary materials have an important impact on fiscal revenue. As the Chinese stock market has basically completed the share-trading reform, stocks that were originally restricted from circulation have begun to circulate. With the continuous increase in the number of lifted bans, the phenomenon of major shareholders reducing their shareholding is also happening constantly. Methods: the paper provides empirical evidence to avoid the adverse effects of major shareholders’ reductions on the promotion of corporate value of listed tobacco Enterprises. From the perspective of the flow of shares after the major shareholders reduce their holdings, with the help of the theory of financing constraints, the article uses an empirical analysis method to explore the effect of the major shareholders of listed tobacco Enterprises on the value of the reduced listed private companies after they reduce their holdings. Results: the results show that when the equity of listed tobacco Enterprises is acquired by state-owned enterprises after the reduction of major shareholders, that is, when state-owned enterprises participate in the shares, the reduction of major shareholders contributes to the increase of the value of tobacco Enterprises. And the larger the reduction proportion of major shareholders, the greater the value of the enterprise. However, when major shareholders reduce their holdings and the equity is acquired by investment institutions and small and medium shareholders, it is not conducive to the improvement of corporate value. Especially when major shareholders maliciously reduce their holdings, it would have an adverse impact on the company’s development and stock price. Conclusion: therefore, from the perspective of enterprise value appreciation, no matter what the purpose is for major shareholders to reduce their holdings, the flow of equity to state-owned enterprises after the reduction is the best choice. The financing constraints of the enterprise could be reduced and it helps enhance the value of the enterprise.

Trade Openness, Social Capital and Total Factor Productivity in Tobacco Industry

Objectives: The tobacco industry makes crucial contributions to local fiscal revenue and thus how to improve the productivity of tobacco industry has gain great attention by scholars, entrepreneurs, and governments. The present study attempts to explore the role of trade openness and social capital in the improvement of total factor productivity (TFP) focusing on tobacco industry. Methods: The present study firstly proposed an estimation model under the framework of new growth theory, and then taking tobacco industries in the top fifty cities in China’s GDP list as examples, the present study conducted an empirical study using regression analysis methodology. Results: The results demonstrated that social capital contributes to enhancing the utilization effectiveness of material capital in tobacco industry, and it has a more direct influence on total factor productivity relative to tobacco industry economic performance. The influence of trade openness and social capital on TFP in tobacco industry is moderated by the present industry economic performance. Conclusion: Both trade openness and social capital play critical roles in promoting the productivity of tobacco industry and the entire industrial economic development. This study thus has practical implications for both tobacco enterprise managers and local governments, and enriches the theory relating to social capital.

Risk Assessment of Government Debt Based on Machine Learning Algorithm

Government debt risk is an important factor affecting macroeconomic stability and public expectation. The key to its prevention and control lies in early warning and early prevention. This paper builds an effective government debt risk assessment system based on machine learning algorithm. According to forming the performance of local government debt risk and its internal and external influencing factors, this study applies the analytic hierarchy process, entropy method, and BP neural network method to construct the local government risk assessment index system, which includes the primary and secondary indexes including the explicit debt risk, the contingent implicit debt risk, and the financial and economic operation risk. Using this system, this study carries on the government debt risk comprehensive weight assignment, the fiscal revenue forecast, the default probability calculation, the safety scale forecast, and finally the government debt risk assessment of the validity analysis. The system can provide signal guidance and policy reference for finance to cope with risks in advance, arrange the priority order of debt repayment, optimize the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure, etc.

A Study on Fiscal Risk of China’s Employees Basic Pension System under Longevity Risk

It is generally accepted that China’s Employees Basic Pension System (CEBPS) cannot cover its expenses. The government needs to fill the gap in income and expenditure with fiscal revenue to ensure sustainability of the system, which may cause it to take fiscal risk caused by the volatility of the fund gap. In this article, through the establishment of a prediction model for the income and expenditure of CEBPS with dynamic mortality, we aimed to measure the fiscal risk caused by longevity risk and provide policy basis for the government. We found that longevity risk leads to serious fiscal risk. The income and expenditure gap of CEBPS fluctuates greatly, and the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of fund balance in 2067 are 1.52 and 0.44 times the expected value, respectively. The knock-on effect of fiscal risk, measured by value-at-risk (VaR), is 1.15 times gross domestic product and 4.75 times state fiscal expenditure in 2020. In this article, we not only calculate the expected value like the other literatures but also discuss the volatility of the CEBPS fund gap.

Evaluating the Effect of Government Emission Reduction Policy: Evidence from Demonstration Cities in China

The effectiveness of government environmental policies is pivotal to environmental quality and provides the reference for further policy design. This paper estimates the effect of comprehensive demonstration of fiscal policy for ECER (Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction) on pollution emissions in Chinese cities with the sample period from 2003 to 2016, which is an important practice for policy integration. We find that this policy reduces the industrial SO2 (sulfur dioxide) emission by 23.8% on average and the industrial wastewater emission by 17.5% on average. This policy, implemented by Chinese government, has effectively achieved its target for emission reduction. A series of robustness checks are also conducted to verify the baseline results. Mechanism analysis indicates that this policy has the effect by the change in the industry structure and the enhancement of fiscal capacity, especially the capacity of fiscal revenue. Some policy recommendations, such as laying emphasis on the policy integration, integrating the financial resources of governments and expanding the demonstration effect, are proposed in order to facilitate green development in Chinese cities.

Illegal renting of residential property as a sector of the informal economy

Subject. Illegal renting of housing is a sector of the informal economy in the Russian Federation, which significantly damages regional budgets due to underpaid taxes from the activity. Objectives. I review the residential rent market and existing measures to counteract illegal instances. I also formulate what specifically may be done to legalize the activity, thus increasing fiscal revenue of regions. Methods. The study relies upon general and partial methods of research, such as analysis and synthesis, analogy, comparison, hypothesizing. Results. The study focuses on the statistics of the illegal renting of housing, analyzes the liability for the activity, identifies pros and cons for tenants and lessees in case of uncontracted relationships. I examine existing measures counteracting the sector of the informal economy. Conclusions and Relevance. Illegal renting of houses, among other thing, challenges the real estate market today. Certainly, people prefer to pay rental taxes, since the State does not have effective methods to trace wrongdoers, while respective bills and mechanisms are not intended to improve the position of tenants. To bring this informal sector to the legal ground, the government should contemplate what may be done to incentivize the registration of tenants’ income and further tax payments, rather than total control measures. To legalize the activity of tenants, the government should seriously revise the respective taxation treatment.