scholarly journals A Quantitative Model for the Integrated Policy Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (122) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Adrian ◽  
Christopher Erceg ◽  
Jesper Lindé ◽  
Pawel Zabczyk ◽  
Jianping Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Policy Tools ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Integrated Policy

Many central banks have relied on a range of policy tools, including foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and capital flow management tools (CFMs), to mitigate the effects of volatile capital flows on their economies. We develop an empirically-oriented New Keynesian model to evaluate and quantify how using multiple policy tools can potentially improve monetary policy tradeoffs. Our model embeds nonlinear balance sheet channels and includes a range of empirically-relevant frictions. We show that FXI and CFMs may improve policy tradeoffs under certain conditions, especially for economies with less well-anchored inflation expectations, substantial foreign currency mismatch, and that are more vulnerable to shocks likely to induce capital outflows and exchange rate pressures.

scholarly journals A Quantitative Model for the Integrated Policy Framework

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Adrian ◽  
Christopher Erceg ◽  
Jesper Lindé ◽  
Pawel Zabczyk ◽  
Jianping Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Integrated Policy

Α Model of Debt Deflation and the Phillips Curve: Implications for Business Cycles and the Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy / Schulden-Deflation und die Phillips-Kurve: Implikationen für Konjunkturzyklen und den Bilanzkanal der Geldpolitik

2000 ◽  
Vol 220 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lutz Arnold
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Balance Sheet Channel ◽  
Debt Deflation

SummaryNew Keynesian economics stresses the positive link between firms’ net worth, on the one hand, and the equilibrium level of credit granted and aggregate employment, on the other hand. The present paper argues that once money is introduced and adaptive inflation expectations are assumed, an accelerationist Phillips curve emerges: because of debt deflation, an increase in the rate of inflation reduces firms' real debt burden; because of the negative link between real debt and employment, unemployment falls. The natural rate of unemployment is the rate that occurs when inflation is constant. Frisch has proposed modeling business cycles by means of stochastic linear second-order difference equations which display damped oscillations in the absence of stochastic impulses. The New Keynesian model with adaptive expectations expounded here gives rise to business cycles in Frisch’s sense. This can be shown by applying Laidler’s result, derived in a different set-up, that the interaction between an accelerationist Phillips curve and the quantity theory of money yields Frisch-type cycles. Moreover, the model presented sheds some light on the working of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy.

scholarly journals A Conceptual Model for the Integrated Policy Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (121) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suman Basu ◽  
Emine Boz ◽  
Gita Gopinath ◽  
Francisco Roch ◽  
Filiz Unsal
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
New Instrument ◽  
Country Characteristics ◽  
Integrated Policy ◽  
The Right ◽  
Currency Mismatches

In the Mundell-Fleming framework, standard monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility fully insulate economies from shocks. However, that framework abstracts from many real world imperfections, and countries often resort to unconventional policies to cope with shocks, such as COVID-19. This paper develops a model of optimal monetary policy, capital controls, foreign exchange intervention, and macroprudential policy. It incorporates many shocks and allows countries to differ across the currency of trade invoicing, degree of currency mismatches, tightness of external and domestic borrowing constraints, and depth of foreign exchange markets. The analysis maps these shocks and country characteristics to optimal policies, and yields several principles. If an additional instrument becomes available, it should not necessarily be deployed because it may not be the right tool to address the imperfection at hand. The use of a new instrument can lead to more or less use of others as instruments interact in non-trivial ways.

MENGELOLA RESIKO DENGAN PRODUK DERIVATIF

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dandes Rifa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Market Risks ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Operational Hedging ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
Derivative Products

The main objective of risk management is to minimize the potential for losses (risk) arising from unexpected changes in currency rates, credit, commodities and equities. One of the risks faced by companies is market risk (value at risk). This article aims to explain that risk management can be one of them by using derivative products. Derivative transactions is very useful for business people who want to hedge (hedging) against a commodity, which always experience price changes from time to time. There are three strategies that can be used to hedge the balance sheet hedging strategy, operational hedging strategies and contractual hedging strategies. Staregi contractual hedging is a form of protection that is done by forming a contractual hedging instruments in order to provide greater flexibility to managers in managing the potential risks faced by foreign currency. Most of these contractual hedging instrument in the form of derivative products. The management can enhance shareholder value by controlling risk. -Party investors and other interested parties hope that the financial manager is able to identify and manage market risks to be faced. If the value of the firm equals the present value of future cash flows, then risk management can be justified. 

scholarly journals Movement of Inflation and New Keynesian Phillips Curve in ASEAN

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Adhitya Wardhono ◽  
M. Abd. Nasir ◽  
Ciplis Gema Qori’ah ◽  
Yulia Indrawati
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Method Of Moment ◽  
Inflation Model ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moment ◽  
Forward Looking

The development of the theory of dynamic inflation begins by linking wage inflation and unemployment. In further developments, factor of expectation is classified into inflation model. The study used inflation data is important for ASEAN, because ASEAN is one of the strengths of the international economy. This study analyzes the dynamics of inflation in the ASEAN using framework the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model. The data used is the quarterly panel data from 5 ASEAN members in the period 2005.QI–2018.QIV. The study of this dynamic inflation applies quarter to quarter inflation data, meaning that the inflation rate is the percentage change in the general price of the current quarter compared to last quarter general price divided by the last quarter. The empirical results are estimated by using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), both of the system and first different indicates that the pattern formation of inflation expectations are backward-looking and forward-looking. In addition, the estimated NKPC models show the backward-looking behavior is more dominant than the forward looking. Changes in inflation are not entirely influenced by expectations of inflation in each country. Changes in inflation are also influenced by the output gap, changes in money supply, and exchange rate. Based on the findings of this study, it can be concluded that the NKPC models can explain the dynamics of inflation in each country in the ASEAN region.

scholarly journals The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 1447-1491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko ◽  
Rupal Kamdar
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Rational Expectation ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Full Information ◽  
Macroeconomic Modeling ◽  
Expectations Formation

This paper argues for a careful (re)consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling, the surveyed empirical microevidence appears increasingly at odds with the full-information rational expectation assumption. We explore models of expectation formation that can potentially explain why and how survey data deviate from full-information rational expectations. Using the New Keynesian Phillips curve as an extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise puzzling shortcomings that arise under the assumption of full-information rational expectations. (JEL D04, E24, E27, E31, E37)

Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK: evidence from the inflation-indexed bonds market

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hardik A. Marfatia
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Indexed Bonds ◽  
Unobserved Component ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Component Approach ◽  
Unobserved Component Model ◽  
The Uk

Abstract This paper utilizes the information in the inflation-indexed bonds market to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK using an unobserved component approach. The main advantage of this approach comes from using the Kalman filter to explicitly estimate the unobserved expected inflation from the observed break-even inflation rates – the yield difference between the inflation-indexed bonds and the nominal bonds. Our results show that the expected inflation estimated from the unobserved component model plays a significant role in explaining the inflation dynamics in the UK. The evidence also suggests that the estimated inflation expectations are better able to capture the evolution of actual inflation process as compared to the break-even inflation rate as a proxy for expected inflation.

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