scholarly journals Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 8679-8686 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Calisto ◽  
P. T. Verronen ◽  
E. Rozanov ◽  
T. Peter
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Solar Proton ◽  
Solar Proton Event ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Proton Event ◽  
Solar Energetic Particle Event ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

Abstract. We have modeled the atmospheric impact of a major solar energetic particle event similar in intensity to what is thought of the Carrington Event of 1–2 September 1859. Ionization rates for the August 1972 solar proton event, which had an energy spectrum comparable to the Carrington Event, were scaled up in proportion to the fluence estimated for both events. We have assumed such an event to take place in the year 2020 in order to investigate the impact on the modern, near future atmosphere. Effects on atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics were investigated using the 3-D Chemistry Climate Model SOCOL v2.0. We find significant responses of NOx, HOx, ozone, temperature and zonal wind. Ozone and NOx have in common an unusually strong and long-lived response to this solar proton event. The model suggests a 3-fold increase of NOx generated in the upper stratosphere lasting until the end of November, and an up to 10-fold increase in upper mesospheric HOx. Due to the NOx and HOx enhancements, ozone reduces by up to 60–80% in the mesosphere during the days after the event, and by up to 20–40% in the middle stratosphere lasting for several months after the event. Total ozone is reduced by up to 20 DU in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 10 DU in the Southern Hemisphere. Free tropospheric and surface air temperatures show a significant cooling of more than 3 K and zonal winds change significantly by 3–5 m s−1 in the UTLS region. In conclusion, a solar proton event, if it took place in the near future with an intensity similar to that ascribed to of the Carrington Event of 1859, must be expected to have a major impact on atmospheric composition throughout the middle atmosphere, resulting in significant and persistent decrease in total ozone.

scholarly journals Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 14747-14769
Author(s):  
M. Calisto ◽  
P. T. Verronen ◽  
E. Rozanov ◽  
T. Peter
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Solar Proton ◽  
Solar Proton Event ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Proton Event ◽  
Solar Energetic Particle Event ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

Abstract. We have modeled the atmospheric impact of a major solar energetic particle event similar in intensity to what is thought of the Carrington Event of 1–2 September 1859. Ionization rates for the August 1972 solar proton event, which had an energy spectrum comparable to the Carrington Event, were scaled up in proportion to the fluence estimated for both events. We have assumed such an event to take place in the year 2020 in order to investigate the impact on the modern, near future atmosphere. Effects on atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics were investigated using the 3-D Chemistry Climate Model SOCOL v2.0. We find significant responses of NOx, HOx, ozone, temperature and zonal wind. Ozone and NOx have in common an unusually strong and long-lived response to this solar proton event. The model suggests a 3-fold increase of NOx generated in the upper stratosphere lasting until the end of November, and an up to 10-fold increase in upper mesospheric HOx. Due to the NOx and HOx enhancements, ozone reduces by up to 60–80% in the mesosphere during the days after the event, and by up to 20–40% in the middle stratosphere lasting for several months after the event. Total ozone is reduced by up to 20 DU in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 10 DU in the Southern Hemisphere. Free tropospheric and surface air temperatures show a significant cooling of more than 3 K and zonal winds change significantly by 3–5 m s−1 in the UTLS region. In conclusion, a solar proton event, if it took place in the near future with an intensity similar to that ascribed to of the Carrington Event of 1859, must be expected to have a major impact on atmospheric composition throughout the middle atmosphere, resulting in significant and persistent decrease in total ozone.

scholarly journals Modelling the effects of the October 1989 solar proton event on mesospheric odd nitrogen using a detailed ion and neutral chemistry model

2002 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 1967-1976 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. T. Verronen ◽  
E. Turunen ◽  
Th. Ulich ◽  
E. Kyrölä
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Reactions ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Solar Proton ◽  
Solar Proton Event ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Proton Event ◽  
Chemical Production ◽  
Ion Chemistry ◽  
Composition And Structure ◽  
Odd Nitrogen

Abstract. Solar proton events and electron precipitation affect the concentrations of middle atmospheric constituents. Ionization caused by precipitating particles enhances the production of important minor neutral constituents, such as nitric oxide, through reaction chains in which ionic reactions play an important role. The Sodankylä Ion Chemistry model (SIC) has been modified and extended into a detailed ion and neutral chemistry model of the mesosphere. Our steady-state model (containing 55 ion species, 8 neutral species, and several hundred chemical reactions) is used to investigate the effect of the October 1989 solar proton event on odd nitrogen at altitudes between 50–90 km. The modelling results show that the NO concentration is significantly enhanced due to the proton precipitation, reaching 107 –108 cm-3 throughout the mesosphere on the 20 October when the proton forcing was most severe. A comparison between the chemical production channels of odd nitrogen indicates that ion chemical reactions are an important factor in the total odd nitrogen production during intense ionization. The modelled electron concentration for the 23 October is compared with EISCAT incoherent scatter radar measurements and a reasonable agreement is found.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (Middle atmosphere – composition and chemistry); Ionosphere (Particle precipitation)

scholarly journals Composition changes after the "Halloween" solar proton event: the High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MIPAS data intercomparison study

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 9089-9139 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Funke ◽  
A. Baumgaertner ◽  
M. Calisto ◽  
T. Egorova ◽  
C. H. Jackman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Solar Proton ◽  
Solar Proton Event ◽  
Proton Event ◽  
High Energy Particle ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Composition Changes

Abstract. We have compared composition changes of NO, NO2, H2O2, O3, N2O, HNO3, N2O5, HNO4, ClO, HOCl, and ClONO2 as observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat in the aftermath of the "Halloween" solar proton event (SPE) in late October 2003 at 25–0.01 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere (40–90° N) and simulations performed by the following atmospheric models: the Bremen 2-D model (B2dM) and Bremen 3-D Chemical Transport Model (B3dCTM), the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, the modeling tool for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and SOCOLi), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The large number of participating models allowed for an evaluation of the overall ability of atmospheric models to reproduce observed atmospheric perturbations generated by SPEs, particularly with respect to NOy and ozone changes. We have further assessed the meteorological conditions and their implications for the chemical response to the SPE in both the models and observations by comparing temperature and tracer (CH4 and CO) fields. Simulated SPE-induced ozone losses agree on average within 5 % with the observations. Simulated NOy enhancements around 1 hPa, however, are typically 30 % higher than indicated by the observations which are likely to be related to deficiencies in the used ionization rates, though other error sources related to the models' atmospheric background state and/or transport schemes cannot be excluded. The analysis of the observed and modeled NOy partitioning in the aftermath of the SPE has demonstrated the need to implement additional ion chemistry (HNO3 formation via ion-ion recombination and water cluster ions) into the chemical schemes. An overestimation of observed H2O2 enhancements by all models hints at an underestimation of the OH/HO2 ratio in the upper polar stratosphere during the SPE. The analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations cause a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

scholarly journals ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY EFFECTS OF THE 20 JANUARY 2005 SOLAR PROTON EVENT

2009 ◽  
pp. 305-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. KLEKOCIUK ◽  
D. J. BOMBARDIERI ◽  
M. L. DULDIG ◽  
K. J. MICHAEL
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Solar Proton ◽  
Solar Proton Event ◽  
Proton Event

scholarly journals Composition changes after the "Halloween" solar proton event: the High-Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MIPAS data intercomparison study

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 9407-9514 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Funke ◽  
A. Baumgaertner ◽  
M. Calisto ◽  
T. Egorova ◽  
C. H. Jackman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Solar Proton ◽  
Solar Proton Event ◽  
Proton Event ◽  
High Energy Particle ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Composition Changes

Abstract. We have compared composition changes of NO, NO2, H2O2, O3, N2O, HNO3, N2O5, HNO4, ClO, HOCl, and ClONO2 as observed by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat in the aftermath of the "Halloween" solar proton event (SPE) in October/November 2003 at 25–0.01 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere (40–90° N) and simulations performed by the following atmospheric models: the Bremen 2d Model (B2dM) and Bremen 3d Chemical Transport Model (B3dCTM), the Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, the modeling tool for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and SOCOLi), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The large number of participating models allowed for an evaluation of the overall ability of atmospheric models to reproduce observed atmospheric perturbations generated by SPEs, particularly with respect to NOy and ozone changes. We have further assessed the meteorological conditions and their implications on the chemical response to the SPE in both the models and observations by comparing temperature and tracer (CH4 and CO) fields. Simulated SPE-induced ozone losses agree on average within 5% with the observations. Simulated \\noy enhancements around 1 hPa, however, are typically 30% higher than indicated by the observations which can be partly attributed to an overestimation of simulated electron-induced ionization. The analysis of the observed and modeled NOy partitioning in the aftermath of the SPE has demonstrated the need to implement additional ion chemistry (HNO3 formation via ion-ion recombination and water cluster ions) into the chemical schemes. An overestimation of observed H2O enhancements by all models hints at an underestimation of the OH/HO2 ratio in the upper polar stratosphere during the SPE. The analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations causes a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

scholarly journals Using Satellite Data for CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) Threat Detection, Monitoring, and Modelling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Sutlieff ◽  
Lucy Berthoud ◽  
Mark Stinchcombe
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Chemical Detection ◽  
List Type ◽  
Data Types ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Future Technologies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

Abstract CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) threats are becoming more prevalent, as more entities gain access to modern weapons and industrial technologies and chemicals. This has produced a need for improvements to modelling, detection, and monitoring of these events. While there are currently no dedicated satellites for CBRN purposes, there are a wide range of possibilities for satellite data to contribute to this field, from atmospheric composition and chemical detection to cloud cover, land mapping, and surface property measurements. This study looks at currently available satellite data, including meteorological data such as wind and cloud profiles, surface properties like temperature and humidity, chemical detection, and sounding. Results of this survey revealed several gaps in the available data, particularly concerning biological and radiological detection. The results also suggest that publicly available satellite data largely does not meet the requirements of spatial resolution, coverage, and latency that CBRN detection requires, outside of providing terrain use and building height data for constructing models. Lastly, the study evaluates upcoming instruments, platforms, and satellite technologies to gauge the impact these developments will have in the near future. Improvements in spatial and temporal resolution as well as latency are already becoming possible, and new instruments will fill in the gaps in detection by imaging a wider range of chemicals and other agents and by collecting new data types. This study shows that with developments coming within the next decade, satellites should begin to provide valuable augmentations to CBRN event detection and monitoring. Article Highlights There is a wide range of existing satellite data in fields that are of interest to CBRN detection and monitoring. The data is mostly of insufficient quality (resolution or latency) for the demanding requirements of CBRN modelling for incident control. Future technologies and platforms will improve resolution and latency, making satellite data more viable in the CBRN management field

scholarly journals Enhancement of stratospheric aerosols after solar proton event

1996 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 1119-1123 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. I. Shumilov ◽  
E. A. Kasatkina ◽  
K. Henriksen ◽  
E. V. Vashenyuk
Keyword(s):  
Considerable Increase ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Solar Proton ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Nucleation Mechanism ◽  
Solar Proton Event ◽  
Proton Event ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Event Type ◽  
Lidar Measurements

Abstract. The lidar measurements at Verhnetulomski observatory (68.6°N, 31.8°E) at Kola peninsula detected a considerable increase of stratospheric aerosol concentration after the solar proton event of GLE (ground level event) type on the 16/02/84. This increase was located at precisely the same altitude range where the energetic solar protons lost their energy in the atmosphere. The aerosol layer formed precipitated quickly (1–2 km per day) during 18, 19, and 20 February 1984, and the increase of R(H) (backscattering ratio) at 17 km altitude reached 40% on 20/02/84. We present the model calculation of CN (condensation nuclei) altitude distribution on the basis of an ion-nucleation mechanism, taking into account the experimental energy distribution of incident solar protons. The meteorological situation during the event was also investigated.

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