scholarly journals Effects of global ship emissions on European air pollution levels

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (19) ◽  
pp. 11399-11422
Author(s):  
Jan Eiof Jonson ◽  
Michael Gauss ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen ◽  
Hilde Fagerli
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Ozone Formation ◽  
Ship Emissions ◽  
Pollution Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Oxidised Nitrogen ◽  
Sulfur Emissions

Abstract. Ship emissions constitute a large, and so far poorly regulated, source of air pollution. Emissions are mainly clustered along major ship routes both in open seas and close to densely populated shorelines. Major air pollutants emitted include sulfur dioxide, NOx, and primary particles. Sulfur and NOx are both major contributors to the formation of secondary fine particles (PM2.5) and to acidification and eutrophication. In addition, NOx is a major precursor for ground-level ozone. In this paper, we quantify the contributions from international shipping to European air pollution levels and depositions. This study is based on global and regional model calculations. The model runs are made with meteorology and emission data representative of the year 2017 after the tightening of the SECA (sulfur emission control area) regulations in 2015 but before the global sulfur cap that came into force in 2020. The ship emissions have been derived using ship positioning data. We have also made model runs reducing sulfur emissions by 80 % corresponding to the 2020 requirements. This study is based on model sensitivity studies perturbing emissions from different sea areas: the northern European SECA in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, the Atlantic Ocean close to Europe, shipping in the rest of the world, and finally all global ship emissions together. Sensitivity studies have also been made setting lower bounds on the effects of ship plumes on ozone formation. Both global- and regional-scale calculations show that for PM2.5 and depositions of oxidised nitrogen and sulfur, the effects of ship emissions are much larger when emissions occur close to the shore than at open seas. In many coastal countries, calculations show that shipping is responsible for 10 % or more of the controllable PM2.5 concentrations and depositions of oxidised nitrogen and sulfur. With few exceptions, the results from the global and regional calculations are similar. Our calculations show that substantial reductions in the contributions from ship emissions to PM2.5 concentrations and to depositions of sulfur can be expected in European coastal regions as a result of the implementation of a 0.5 % worldwide limit of the sulfur content in marine fuels from 2020. For countries bordering the North Sea and Baltic Sea SECA, low sulfur emissions have already resulted in marked reductions in PM2.5 from shipping before 2020. For ozone, the lifetime in the atmosphere is much longer than for PM2.5, and the potential for ozone formation is much larger in otherwise pristine environments. We calculate considerable contributions from open sea shipping. As a result, we find that the largest contributions to ozone in several regions and countries in Europe are from sea areas well outside European waters.

scholarly journals Effects of global ship emissions on European air pollution levels

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Eiof Jonson ◽  
Michael Gauss ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen ◽  
Hilde Fagerli
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Sulfur Dioxide ◽  
Fine Particles ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Ozone Formation ◽  
Ship Emissions ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
The World ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Oxidised Nitrogen

Abstract. Ship emissions constitute a large, and so far poorly regulated, source of air pollution. Emissions are mainly clustered along major ship routes, both in open seas and close to densely populated shorelines. Major air pollutants emitted include sulfur dioxide, NOx and particles. Sulfur dioxide and NOx are both major contributors to the formation of secondary fine particles (PM2.5) and to acidification and eutrophication. In addition, NOx is a major precursor for ground-level ozone. This study is based on global and regional model calculations. The model runs are made with meteorology and emission data representative for year 2017, after the tightening of the SECA (Sulphur Emission Control Area) regulations in 2015, but before the global sulfur cap entering into force in 2020. We have also made model runs reducing sulfur emissions by 80 % corresponding to the 2020 requirements. This study is based on model sensitivity studies perturbing emissions from different sea areas: the Northern European SECA in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, the Atlantic Ocean close to Europe, shipping in the rest of the world and finally all global ship emissions together. Sensitivity studies have also been made setting lower bounds on the effects of ship plumes on ozone formation. The results from the global and regional calculations are similar. Both global and regional scale calculations show that for PM2.5 and depositions of oxidised nitrogen and sulfur, the effects of ship emissions are much larger when emissions occur close to the shore than at open seas. In many coastal countries calculations show that shipping is responsible for 10 % or more of the controllable PM2.5 concentrations and depositions of oxidised nitrogen and sulphur. For ozone the lifetime in the atmosphere is much longer than for PM2.5, and the potential for ozone formation is much larger in otherwise pristine environments. We find considerable contributions from open sea shipping. As a result the largest contributions to ozone in several regions and countries are from rest of the world shipping.

scholarly journals Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 783-798 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Jonson ◽  
J. P. Jalkanen ◽  
L. Johansson ◽  
M. Gauss ◽  
H. A. C. Denier van der Gon
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Ship Emissions ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Sulfur Emissions

Abstract. Land-based emissions of air pollutants in Europe have steadily decreased over the past two decades, and this decrease is expected to continue. Within the same time span emissions from shipping have increased in EU ports and in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, defined as SECAs (sulfur emission control areas), although recently sulfur emissions, and subsequently particle emissions, have decreased. The maximum allowed sulfur content in marine fuels in EU ports is now 0.1%, as required by the European Union sulfur directive. In the SECAs the maximum fuel content of sulfur is currently 1% (the global average is about 2.4%). This will be reduced to 0.1% from 2015, following the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) rules. In order to assess the effects of ship emissions in and around the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, regional model calculations with the EMEP air pollution model have been made on a 1/4° longitude × 1/8° latitude resolution, using ship emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea that are based on accurate ship positioning data. The effects on depositions and air pollution and the resulting number of years of life lost (YOLLs) have been calculated by comparing model calculations with and without ship emissions in the two sea areas. In 2010 stricter regulations for sulfur emissions were implemented in the two sea areas, reducing the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine fuels from 1.5 to 1%. In addition ships were required to use fuels with 0.1 % sulfur in EU harbours. The calculations have been made with emissions representative of 2009 and 2011, i.e. before and after the implementation of the stricter controls on sulfur emissions from 2010. The calculations with present emissions show that per person, an additional 0.1–0.2 years of life lost is estimated in areas close to the major ship tracks with current emission levels. Comparisons of model calculations with emissions before and after the implementation of stricter emission control on sulfur show a general decrease in calculated particle concentration. At the same time, however, an increase in ship activity has resulted in higher emissions of other components, and subsequently air concentrations, in particular of NOx, especially in and around several major ports. Additional model calculations have been made with land-based and ship emissions representative of year 2030. Following a decrease in emissions from all sectors, air quality is expected to improve, and depositions to be reduced. Particles from shipping are expected to decrease as a result of emission controls in the SECAs. Further controls of NOx emissions from shipping are not decided, and calculations are presented with and without such controls.

scholarly journals The contribution of ship emissions to air pollution in the North Sea regions

2010 ◽  
Vol 158 (6) ◽  
pp. 2241-2250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volker Matthias ◽  
Ines Bewersdorff ◽  
Armin Aulinger ◽  
Markus Quante
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Ship Emissions ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea

scholarly journals Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 21943-21974 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. E. Jonson ◽  
J. P. Jalkanen ◽  
L. Johansson ◽  
M. Gauss ◽  
H. A. C. Denier van der Gon
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Ship Emissions ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
The North ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. Land-based emissions of air pollutants in Europe have steadily decreased over the past two decades, and this decrease is expected to continue. Within the same time span emissions from shipping have increased, although recently sulphur emissions, and subsequently particle emissions, have decreased in EU ports and in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, defined as SECAs (Sulphur Emission Control Areas). The maximum allowed sulphur content in marine fuels in EU ports is now 0.1%, as required by the European Union sulphur directive. In the SECAs the maximum fuel content of sulphur is currently 1% (the global average is about 2.4%). This will be reduced to 0.1% from 2015, following the new IMO rules (International Maritime Organisation). In order to assess the effects of ship emissions in and around the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, regional model calculations with the EMEP air pollution model have been made on a 1/4° longitude × 1/8° latitude resolution, using ship emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea that are based on accurate ship positioning data. The effects on depositions and air pollution and the resulting number of years of life lost (YOLL) have been calculated by comparing model calculations with and without ship emissions in the two sea areas. The calculations have been made with emissions representative of 2009 and 2011, i.e. before and after the implementation of stricter controls on sulphur emissions from mid 2010. The calculations with present emissions show that per person, an additional 0.1–0.2 years of life lost is estimated in areas close to the major ship tracks with present emission levels. Comparisons of model calculations with emissions before and after the implementation of stricter emission control on sulphur show a general decrease in calculated particle concentration. At the same time, however, an increase in ship activity has resulted in higher emissions and subsequently air concentrations, in particular of NOx, especially in and around several major ports. Additional model calculations have been made with land based and ship emissions representative of year 2030. Following a decrease in emissions, air quality is expected to improve, and depositions to be reduced. Particles from shipping are expected to decrease as a result of emission controls in the SECAs. Further controls of NOx emissions from shipping are not decided, and calculations are presented with and without such controls.

Prediction of Relative Motion and Probability of Contact Between FPSO and Shuttle Tanker in Tandem Offloading Operation

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haibo Chen ◽  
Torgeir Moan ◽  
Sverre Haver ◽  
Kjell Larsen
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Simulation Code ◽  
The North ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Tandem Offloading

Tandem offloading safety between FPSO and shuttle tanker is under concern. A few collisions between the two vessels have happened in the North Sea in recent years. In these incidents, excessive relative motions (termed as surging and yawing in this paper) between FPSO and tanker are identified as “failure prone situations” which have contributed to the initiation of most collision incidents. To quantitatively assess the probability of surging and yawing events, and more importantly, to effectively reduce their occurrence in tandem offloading operation, we present a simulation-based approach in this paper, which is carried out by a state-of-the-art time-domain simulation code SIMO. The SIMO simulation models are setup and calibrated for a typical North Sea purpose-built FPSO and a DP shuttle tanker. This 2-vessel system motion in tandem offloading is simulated. The simulated relative distance and relative heading between FPSO and tanker are analyzed by fitting their extreme values into statistical models. This gives out probabilities of surging and yawing events. Sensitivity studies are performed to analyze contributions from various technical and operational factors. Measures to minimize the occurrence of surging and yawing from design and operational point of view are proposed.

Prediction of Relative Motion and Probability of Contact Between FPSO and Shuttle Tanker in Tandem Offloading Operation

2003 ◽  
Vol 126 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haibo Chen ◽  
Torgeir Moan ◽  
Sverre Haver ◽  
Kjell Larsen
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Time Domain Simulation ◽  
Simulation Code ◽  
The North ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Tandem Offloading

Excessive relative motions between Floating Production Storage Offloading Unit (FPSO), and tanker, which are termed as excessive surging and yawing events, are identified as the “failure prone situation” in tandem offloading. These events have contributed to the initiation of tanker drive-off in most collision incidents that happened in the North Sea in recent years. To estimate and reduce the probability of excessive surging and yawing events in tandem offloading, a simulation-based approach, which is based on a state-of-the-art time-domain simulation code SIMO, is presented in this paper. A typical North Sea FPSO and a DP shuttle tanker simulation models are setup in SIMO and calibrated by full-scale measurements. The simulated relative distance and relative heading between FPSO and tanker are analyzed by fitting their extreme values into statistical models which give out probabilities of excessive surging and yawing events. Sensitivity studies are performed to pinpoint contributions from various technical and operational factors. Measures to minimize the occurrence of excessive surging and yawing events are identified in design and operational perspectives.

scholarly journals Contribution of ship emissions to the concentration and deposition of air pollutants in Europe

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (21) ◽  
pp. 30959-30986 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Aksoyoglu ◽  
A. S. H. Prévôt ◽  
U. Baltensperger
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Wet Deposition ◽  
Sulfur Compounds ◽  
Nox Emissions ◽  
English Channel ◽  
Ship Emissions ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea

Abstract. Emissions from the marine transport sector are one of the least regulated anthropogenic emission sources and contribute significantly to air pollution. Although strict limits were introduced recently for the maximum sulfur content in marine fuels in the SECAs (sulfur emission control areas) and in the EU ports, sulfur emissions outside the SECAs and emissions of other components in all European maritime areas have continued to increase in the last two decades. We have used the air quality model CAMx with and without ship emissions for the year 2006 to determine the effects of international shipping on the annual as well as seasonal concentrations of ozone, primary and secondary components of PM2.5 and the dry and wet deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds in Europe. Our results suggest that emissions from international shipping affect the air quality in northern and southern Europe differently and their contributions to the air concentrations vary seasonally. The largest changes in pollutant concentrations due to ship emissions were predicted for summer. Increased concentrations of the primary particle mass were found only along the shipping routes whereas concentrations of the secondary pollutants were affected over a larger area. Concentrations of particulate sulfate increased due to ship emissions in the Mediterranean (up to 60 %), in the English Channel and the North Sea (30–35 %) while increases in particulate nitrate levels were found especially in the north, around the Benelux area (20 %) where there were high NH3 land-based emissions. Our model results showed that not only the atmospheric concentrations of pollutants are affected by ship emissions, but also depositions of nitrogen and sulfur compounds increase significantly along the shipping routes. NOx emissions from the ships especially in the English Channel and the North Sea, cause a decrease in the dry deposition of reduced nitrogen at source regions by moving it from the gas-phase to the particle phase which then contributes to an increase in the wet deposition at coastal areas with higher precipitation. In the western Mediterranean region on the other hand, model results show an increase in the deposition of oxidized nitrogen (mostly HNO3) due to the ship traffic. Dry deposition of SO2 seems to be significant along the shipping routes whereas sulfate wet deposition occurs mainly along the Scandinavian and Adriatic coasts. The results presented in this paper suggest that evolution of NOx emissions from ships and land-based NH3 emissions will play a significant role in the future European air quality.

scholarly journals Constraints on ship NO<sub>x</sub> emissions in Europe using GEOS-Chem and OMI satellite NO<sub>2</sub> observations

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 1353-1369 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. C. M. Vinken ◽  
K. F. Boersma ◽  
A. van Donkelaar ◽  
L. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Emission Inventory ◽  
Bay Of Biscay ◽  
Ship Emissions ◽  
Top Down ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. We present a top-down ship NOx emission inventory for the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Mediterranean Sea based on satellite-observed tropospheric NO2 columns of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for 2005–2006. We improved the representation of ship emissions in the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, and compared simulated NO2 columns to consistent satellite observations. Relative differences between simulated and observed NO2 columns have been used to constrain ship emissions in four European seas (the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Mediterranean Sea) using a mass-balance approach, and accounting for non-linear sensitivities to changing emissions in both model and satellite retrieval. These constraints are applied to 39 % of total top-down European ship NOx emissions, which amount to 0.96 Tg N for 2005, and 1.0 Tg N for 2006 (11–15% lower than the bottom-up EMEP ship emission inventory). Our results indicate that EMEP emissions in the Mediterranean Sea are too high (by 60%) and misplaced by up to 150 km, which can have important consequences for local air quality simulations. In the North Sea ship track, our top-down emissions amount to 0.05 Tg N for 2005 (35% lower than EMEP). Increased top-down emissions were found for the Baltic Sea and the Bay of Biscay ship tracks, with totals in these tracks of 0.05 Tg N (131% higher than EMEP) and 0.08 Tg N for 2005 (128% higher than EMEP), respectively. Our study explicitly accounts for the (non-linear) sensitivity of satellite retrievals to changes in the a priori NO2 profiles, as satellite observations are never fully independent of model information (i.e. assumptions on vertical NO2 profiles). Our study provides for the first time a space-based, top-down ship NOx emission inventory, and can serve as a framework for future studies to constrain ship emissions using satellite NO2 observations in other seas.

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