scholarly journals Review of “Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail” by Wellmann at al.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anonymous
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Deep Convective Clouds ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 2201-2219
Author(s):  
Constanze Wellmann ◽  
Andrew I. Barrett ◽  
Jill S. Johnson ◽  
Michael Kunz ◽  
Bernhard Vogel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Dimensional Parameter ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Deep Convective Clouds ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Severe hailstorms have the potential to damage buildings and crops. However, important processes for the prediction of hailstorms are insufficiently represented in operational weather forecast models. Therefore, our goal is to identify model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics, such as the vertical wind shear and strength of ice multiplication, which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convective clouds and precipitation. We conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis simulating deep convective clouds in an idealized setup of a cloud-resolving model. We use statistical emulation and variance-based sensitivity analysis to enable a Monte Carlo sampling of the model outputs across the multi-dimensional parameter space. The results show that the model dynamical and microphysical properties are sensitive to both the environmental and microphysical uncertainties in the model. The microphysical parameters lead to larger uncertainties in the output of integrated hydrometeor mass contents and precipitation variables. In particular, the uncertainty in the fall velocities of graupel and hail account for more than 65 % of the variance of all considered precipitation variables and for 30 %–90 % of the variance of the integrated hydrometeor mass contents. In contrast, variations in the environmental parameters – the range of which is limited to represent model uncertainty – mainly affect the vertical profiles of the diabatic heating rates.

scholarly journals Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constanze Wellmann ◽  
Andrew I. Barrett ◽  
Jill S. Johnson ◽  
Michael Kunz ◽  
Bernhard Vogel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Fall Velocity ◽  
Dimensional Parameter ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Deep Convective Clouds ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Severe hailstorms have the potential to damage buildings and crops. However, important processes for the prediction of hailstorms are insufficiently represented in operational weather forecast models. Therefore, our goal is to identify model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics, such as vertical wind shear and strength of ice multiplication, which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convective clouds and precipitation. We conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis simulating deep convective clouds in an idealized setup of a cloud-resolving model. We use statistical emulation and variance-based sensitivity analysis to enable a Monte Carlo sampling of the model outputs across the multi-dimensional parameter space. The results show that the model dynamical and microphysical properties are sensitive to both the environmental and microphysical uncertainties in the model. The microphysical parameters, especially the fall velocity of hail, lead to larger uncertainties in the output of integrated hydrometeor masses and precipitation variables. In contrast, variations in the environmental conditions mainly affect the vertical profiles of the diabatic heating rates.

scholarly journals The response of precipitation to aerosol through riming and melting in deep convective clouds

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 29007-29050
Author(s):  
Z. Cui ◽  
S. Davies ◽  
K. S. Carslaw ◽  
A. M. Blyth
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Mixed Phase ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Ice Particles ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Deep Convective Clouds ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We have used a 2-D axisymmetric, non-hydrostatic, bin-resolved cloud model to examine the impact of aerosol changes on the development of mixed-phase convective clouds. We have simulated convective clouds from four different sites (three continental and one tropical marine) with a wide range of realistic aerosol loadings and initial thermodynamic conditions (a total of 93 different clouds). It is found that the accumulated precipitation responds very differently to changing aerosol in the marine and continental environments. For the continental clouds, the scaled total precipitation reaches a maximum for aerosol that produce drop numbers at cloud base between 180–430 cm−3 when other conditions are the same. In contrast, all the tropical marine clouds show an increase in accumulated precipitation and deeper convection with increasing aerosol loading. For continental clouds, drops are rapidly depleted by ice particles shortly after the onset of precipitation. The precipitation is dominantly produced by melting ice particles. The riming rate increases with aerosol when the loading is very low, and decreases when the loading is high. Peak precipitation intensities tend to increase with aerosol up to drop concentrations (at cloud base) of ~500 cm−3 then decrease with further aerosol increases. This behaviour is caused by the initial transition from warm to mixed-phase rain followed by reduced efficiency of mixed-phase rain at very high drop concentrations. The response of tropical marine clouds to increasing aerosol is different to, and larger than, that of continental clouds. In the more humid tropical marine environment with low cloud bases we find that accumulated precipitation increases with increasing aerosol. The increase is driven by the transition from warm to mixed-phase rain. Our study suggests that the response of deep convective clouds to aerosol will be an important contribution to the spatial and temporal variability in cloud microphysics and precipitation.

scholarly journals The response of precipitation to aerosol through riming and melting in deep convective clouds

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 3495-3510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Cui ◽  
S. Davies ◽  
K. S. Carslaw ◽  
A. M. Blyth
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Model ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Mixed Phase ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Ice Particles ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Deep Convective Clouds ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We have used a 2-D axisymmetric, non-hydrostatic, bin-resolved cloud model to examine the impact of aerosol changes on the development of mixed-phase convective clouds. We have simulated convective clouds from four different sites (three continental and one tropical marine) with a wide range of realistic aerosol loadings and initial thermodynamic conditions (a total of 93 different clouds). It is found that the accumulated precipitation responds very differently to changing aerosol in the marine and continental environments. For the continental clouds, the scaled total precipitation reaches a maximum for aerosol that produce drop numbers at cloud base between 180–430 cm−3 when other conditions are the same. In contrast, all the tropical marine clouds show an increase in accumulated precipitation and deeper convection with increasing aerosol loading. For continental clouds, drops are rapidly depleted by ice particles shortly after the onset of precipitation. The precipitation is dominantly produced by melting ice particles. The riming rate increases with aerosol when the loading is very low, and decreases when the loading is high. Peak precipitation intensities tend to increase with aerosol up to drop concentrations (at cloud base) of ~500 cm−3 then decrease with further aerosol increases. This behaviour is caused by the initial transition from warm to mixed-phase rain followed by reduced efficiency of mixed-phase rain at very high drop concentrations. The response of tropical marine clouds to increasing aerosol is different to, and larger than, that of continental clouds. In the more humid tropical marine environment with low cloud bases we find that accumulated precipitation increases with increasing aerosol. The increase is driven by the transition from warm to mixed-phase rain. Our study suggests that the response of deep convective clouds to aerosol will be an important contribution to the spatial and temporal variability in cloud microphysics and precipitation.

The influence of shallow cloud populations on transitions to deep convection in the Amazon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casey D. Burleyson ◽  
Zhe Feng ◽  
Samson M. Hagos
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Eddy Diffusivity ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Shallow Cumulus ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Deep Convective Clouds ◽  
Shallow Clouds ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this study, a pair of convection-permitting (2-km grid spacing), month-long, wet season Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations with and without the Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) scheme are performed for a portion of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) 2014/5 field campaign period. EDMF produces an ensemble of subgrid-scale convective plumes that evolve in response to the boundary layer meteorology and can develop into shallow clouds. The objective of this study is to determine how different treatments of shallow cumulus clouds (i.e., with and without EDMF) impact the total cloud population and precipitation across the Amazonian rainforest, with emphasis on impacts on the likelihood of shallow-to-deep convection transitions. Results indicate that the large-scale synoptic conditions in the EDMF and control simulations are nearly identical, however, on the local scale their rainfall patterns diverge drastically and the biases decrease in EDMF. The EDMF scheme significantly increases the frequency of shallow clouds, but the frequencies of deep clouds are similar between the simulations. Deep convective clouds (DCC) are tracked using a cloud tracking algorithm to examine the impact of shallow cumulus on the surrounding ambient environment where deep convective clouds initiate. Results suggest that a rapid increase of low-level cloudiness acts to cool and moisten the low-to-mid troposphere during the day, favoring the transition to deep convection.

scholarly journals Morphological Variations of Wild Populations of Brycon dentex (Characidae, Teleostei) in the Guayas Hydrographic Basin (Ecuador). The Impact of Fishing Policies and Environmental Conditions

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1901
Author(s):  
Ana Gonzalez-Martinez ◽  
Carmen De-Pablos-Heredero ◽  
Martin González ◽  
Jorge Rodriguez ◽  
Cecilio Barba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Freshwater Species ◽  
Fishing Pressure ◽  
Wild Populations ◽  
Morphometric Variation ◽  
Morphological Variations ◽  
Body Development ◽  
The Impact

The Guayas, located in Ecuador, is the largest basin in the Pacific Ocean and has an inventory of 123 native freshwater species. Most of these are endemic species that are threatened or at-risk due to anthropogenic activity and the modification, fragmentation, and destruction of habitats. The aim of this study was to determine the morphometric variation in three wild populations of Brycon dentex in the Guayas basin rivers and their connections to fishing management and environmental conditions. A total of 200 mature fish were captured, and 26 morphometric parameters were measured. The fishing policies (Hypothesis 1) and environmental conditions (Hypothesis 2) were considered fixed factors and were validated by t-tests. The morphological variation among the three populations (Hypothesis 3) was validated through a discriminant analysis. Fishing policies and resource management were found to generate morphological differences associated with body development. In addition, the environmental conditions were found to influence the size and structure of Brycon dentex populations. The analyzed populations were discriminated by the generated morphometric models, which differentiated Cluster 1 (Quevedo and Mocache rivers) with high fishing pressure from Cluster 2 (Pintado river) with medium–low fishing pressure. Morphometric differentiation by discriminant analysis is a direct and economic methodology that can be applied as an indicator of diversity maintenance.

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