scholarly journals Sensitivity of stratospheric water vapour to variability in tropical tropopause temperatures and large-scale transport

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 2469-2489
Author(s):  
Jacob W. Smith ◽  
Peter H. Haynes ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Neal Butchart ◽  
Andrew C. Bushell
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Temperature Sensitivity ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Trajectory Calculations ◽  
Monthly Temperature ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Concentrations of water vapour entering the tropical lower stratosphere are primarily determined by conditions that air parcels encounter as they are transported through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Here we quantify the relative roles of variations in TTL temperatures and transport in determining seasonal and interannual variations of stratospheric water vapour. Following previous studies, we use trajectory calculations with the water vapour concentration set by the Lagrangian dry point (LDP) along trajectories. To assess the separate roles of transport and temperatures, the LDP calculations are modified by replacing either the winds or the temperatures with those from different years to investigate the wind or temperature sensitivity of water vapour to interannual variations and, correspondingly, with those from different months to investigate the wind or temperature sensitivity to seasonal variations. Both ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the 1999–2009 period and data generated by a chemistry–climate model (UM-UKCA) are investigated. Variations in temperatures, rather than transport, dominate interannual variability, typically explaining more than 70 % of variability, including individual events such as the 2000 stratospheric water vapour drop. Similarly seasonal variation of temperatures, rather than transport, is shown to be the dominant driver of the annual cycle in lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations in both the model and reanalysis, but it is also shown that seasonal variation of transport plays an important role in reducing the seasonal cycle maximum (reducing the annual range by about 30 %). The quantitative role in dehydration of sub-seasonal and sub-monthly Eulerian temperature variability is also examined by using time-filtered temperature fields in the trajectory calculations. Sub-monthly temperature variability reduces annual mean water vapour concentrations by 40 % in the reanalysis calculation and 30 % in the model calculation. As with other aspects of dehydration, simple Eulerian measures of variability are not sufficient to quantify the implications for dehydration, and the Lagrangian sampling of the variability must be taken into account. These results indicate that, whilst capturing seasonal and interannual variation of temperature is a major factor in modelling realistic stratospheric water vapour concentrations, simulation of seasonal variation of transport and of sub-seasonal and sub-monthly temperature variability are also important and cannot be ignored.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of stratospheric water vapour to variability in tropical tropopause temperatures and large-scale transport

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob W. Smith ◽  
Peter H. Haynes ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Neal Butchart ◽  
Andrew C. Bushell
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Trajectory Calculations ◽  
Monthly Temperature ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Water Vapour Concentration ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Concentrations of water vapour entering the tropical lower stratosphere are primarily determined by conditions that air parcels encounter as they are transported through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Here we quantify the relative roles of variations in TTL temperatures and transport in determining seasonal and interannual variations of stratospheric water vapour. Following previous studies, we use trajectory calculations with the water vapour concentration set by the Lagrangian Dry Point along trajectories. To isolate the roles of transport and temperatures, the Lagrangian Dry Point calculations are modified by time-shifting temperatures relative to transport, and vice versa, with the shift made by years to investigate interannual variations and by months to investigate seasonal variations. Both ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the 1999–2009 period and data generated by a chemistry-climate model (UM-UKCA) are investigated. Variations in temperatures, rather than transport, dominate interannual variability, typically explaining more than 70 % of variability, including individual events such as the 2000 stratospheric water vapour drop. Similarly seasonal variation of temperatures, rather than transport, is shown to be the dominant driver of the annual cycle in lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations in both model and reanalysis, but it is also shown that seasonal variation of transport plays an important role in reducing the seasonal cycle maximum (reducing the annual range by about 30 %). The quantitative role in dehydration of sub-seasonal and sub-monthly Eulerian temperature variability is also examined by using time-filtered temperature fields in the trajectory calculations. Sub-monthly temperature variability reduces annual mean water vapour concentrations by 40 % in the reanalysis calculation and 30 % in the model calculation. These results indicate that, whilst capturing seasonal and interannual variation of temperature is a major factor in modelling realistic stratospheric water vapour concentrations, simulation of seasonal variation of transport and of sub-seasonal and sub-monthly temperature variability are also important and cannot be ignored.

scholarly journals Linking the uncertainty in simulated arctic ozone losses to modelling of tropical stratospheric water vapour

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Thölix ◽  
Alexey Karpechko ◽  
Leif Backman ◽  
Rigel Kivi
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Water Vapour Concentration ◽  
Vapour Concentration ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric water vapor plays a key role in radiative and chemical processes, it e.g. influences the chemical ozone loss via controlling the polar stratospheric cloud formation in the polar stratosphere. The amount of water entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause differs substantially between chemistry-climate models. This is because the present-day models have difficulties in capturing the whole complexity of processes that control the water transport across the tropopause. As a result there are large differences in the stratospheric water vapour between the models. In this study we investigate the sensitivity of simulated Arctic ozone loss to the amount of water, which enters the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause. We used a chemical transport model, FinROSE-CTM, forced by ERA-Interim meteorology. The water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause was varied between 0.5 and 1.6 times the concentration in ERA-Interim, which is similar to the range seen in chemistry climate models. The water vapour changes in the tropical tropopause led to about 1.5 and 2 ppm more water vapour in the Arctic polar vortex compared to the ERA-Interim, respectively. We found that the impact of water vapour changes on ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex depend on the meteorological conditions. Polar stratospheric clouds form in the cold conditions within the Arctic vortex, and chlorine activation on their surface lead to ozone loss. If the cold conditions persist long enough (e.g. in 2010/11), the chlorine activation is nearly complete. In this case addition of water vapour to the stratosphere increased the formation of ICE clouds, but did not increase the chlorine activation and ozone destruction significantly. In the warm winter 2012/13 the impact of water vapour concentration on ozone loss was small, because the ozone loss was mainly NOx induced. In intermediately cold conditions, e.g. 2013/14, the effect of added water vapour was more prominent than in the other studied winters. The results show that the simulated water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause has a significant impact on the Arctic ozone loss and deserves attention in order to improve future projections of ozone layer recovery.

scholarly journals Is there a solar signal in lower stratospheric water vapour?

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (17) ◽  
pp. 9851-9863 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Schieferdecker ◽  
S. Lossow ◽  
G. P. Stiller ◽  
T. von Clarmann
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Latitude Range ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Atmospheric Sounding ◽  
Solar Signal ◽  
Tropopause Temperature ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. A merged time series of stratospheric water vapour built from the Halogen Occultation Instrument (HALOE) and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) data between 60° S and 60° N and 15 to 30 km and covering the years 1992 to 2012 was analysed by multivariate linear regression, including an 11-year solar cycle proxy. Lower stratospheric water vapour was found to reveal a phase-shifted anti-correlation with the solar cycle, with lowest water vapour after solar maximum. The phase shift is composed of an inherent constant time lag of about 2 years and a second component following the stratospheric age of air. The amplitudes of the water vapour response are largest close to the tropical tropopause (up to 0.35 ppmv) and decrease with altitude and latitude. Including the solar cycle proxy in the regression results in linear trends of water vapour being negative over the full altitude/latitude range, while without the solar proxy, positive water vapour trends in the lower stratosphere were found. We conclude from these results that a solar signal seems to be generated at the tropical tropopause which is most likely imprinted on the stratospheric water vapour abundances and transported to higher altitudes and latitudes via the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Hence it is concluded that the tropical tropopause temperature at the final dehydration point of air may also be governed to some degree by the solar cycle. The negative water vapour trends obtained when considering the solar cycle impact on water vapour abundances can possibly solve the "water vapour conundrum" of increasing stratospheric water vapour abundances despite constant or even decreasing tropopause temperatures.

scholarly journals Diurnal Variability of Lower and Middle Atmospheric Water Vapour Over The Asian Summer Monsoon Region: First Results From COSMIC-1 and TIMED-SABER Measurements

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siddarth Shankar Das ◽  
K N Uma ◽  
K V Suneeth
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Diurnal Amplitude ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
First Results ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Tropopause Temperature ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract First observations on the vertical structure of diurnal variability of tropospheric water vapour in the lower and middle atmosphere using 13 years of COSMIC and 18 years of SABER observations are presented in this paper. The most significant and new observation is that the middle stratospheric water vapour (SWV) enhancement is observed between 9-18 LT, whereas it is between 6-15 LT near tropopause in all the seasons. The diurnal amplitude of water vapour near tropopause is between 0.3-0.4 ppmv. Bimodal peaks are found in the diurnal amplitude of SWV, maximizing between 25-30 km (~0.4 ppmv) and 45-50 km (~0.6 ppmv). The analysis reveals that the diurnal variability in the lower SWV is controlled by the tropical tropopause temperature, whereas the middle and upper SWV is controlled by methane oxidation. The results are presented and discussed in the light of present understanding.

scholarly journals A solar signal in lower stratospheric water vapour?

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 12353-12387 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Schieferdecker ◽  
S. Lossow ◽  
G. P. Stiller ◽  
T. von Clarmann
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Solar Maximum ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Latitude Range ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Solar Signal ◽  
Tropopause Temperature ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour ◽  
Linear Trends

Abstract. A merged time series of stratospheric water vapour built from HALOE and MIPAS data between 60° S and 60° N and 15 to 30 km and covering the years 1992 to 2012 was analyzed by multivariate linear regression including an 11 year solar cycle proxy. Lower stratospheric water vapour was found to reveal a phase-shifted anti-correlation with the solar cycle, with lowest water vapour after solar maximum. The phase shift is composed of an inherent constant time lag of about 2 years and a second component following the stratospheric age of air. The amplitudes of the water vapour response are largest close to the tropical tropopause (up to 0.35 ppmv) and decrease with altitude and latitude. Including the solar cycle proxy in the regression results in linear trends of water vapour being negative over the full altitude/latitude range, while without the solar proxy positive water wapour trends in the lowermost stratosphere were found. We conclude from these results that a solar signal generated at the tropical tropopause is imprinted on the stratospheric water vapour abundances and transported to higher altitudes and latitudes via the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Hence it is concluded that the tropical tropopause temperature at the final dehydration point of air is also governed to some degree by the solar cycle. The negative water vapour trends obtained when considering the solar cycle impact on water vapour abundances can solve the water vapour conundrum of increasing stratospheric water vapour abundances at constant or even decreasing tropopause temperatures.

scholarly journals Linking uncertainty in simulated Arctic ozone loss to uncertainties in modelled tropical stratospheric water vapour

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (20) ◽  
pp. 15047-15067
Author(s):  
Laura Thölix ◽  
Alexey Karpechko ◽  
Leif Backman ◽  
Rigel Kivi
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Water Vapour Concentration ◽  
Vapour Concentration ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric water vapour influences the chemical ozone loss in the polar stratosphere via control of the polar stratospheric cloud formation. The amount of water vapour entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause differs substantially between simulations from chemistry–climate models (CCMs). This is because the present-day models, e.g. CCMs, have difficulties in capturing the whole complexity of processes that control the water transport across the tropopause. As a result there are large differences in the stratospheric water vapour between the models. In this study we investigate the sensitivity of simulated Arctic ozone loss to the simulated amount of water vapour that enters the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause. We used a chemical transport model, FinROSE-CTM, forced by ERA-Interim meteorology. The water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause was varied between 0.5 and 1.6 times the concentration in ERA-Interim, which is similar to the range seen in chemistry–climate models. The water vapour changes in the tropical tropopause led to about 1.5 ppmv less and 2 ppmv more water vapour in the Arctic polar vortex compared to the ERA-Interim, respectively. The change induced in the water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause region was seen as a nearly one-to-one change in the Arctic polar vortex. We found that the impact of water vapour changes on ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex depends on the meteorological conditions. The strongest effect was in intermediately cold stratospheric winters, such as the winter of 2013/2014, when added water vapour resulted in 2 %–7 % more ozone loss due to the additional formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and associated chlorine activation on their surface, leading to ozone loss. The effect was less pronounced in cold winters such as the 2010/2011 winter because cold conditions persisted long enough for a nearly complete chlorine activation, even in simulations with prescribed stratospheric water vapour amount corresponding to the observed values. In this case addition of water vapour to the stratosphere led to increased areas of ICE PSCs but it did not increase the chlorine activation and ozone destruction significantly. In the warm winter of 2012/2013 the impact of water vapour concentration on ozone loss was small because the ozone loss was mainly NOx-induced. The results show that the simulated water vapour concentration in the tropical tropopause has a significant impact on the Arctic ozone loss and therefore needs to be well simulated in order to improve future projections of the recovery of the ozone layer.

scholarly journals The impact of temperature resolution on trajectory modeling of stratospheric water vapour

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (21) ◽  
pp. 29209-29236 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Wang ◽  
A. E. Dessler ◽  
M. R. Schoeberl ◽  
W. J. Randel ◽  
J.-E. Kim
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Finite Resolution ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
Wave Induced ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Modern Era ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Lagrangian trajectories driven by reanalysis meteorological fields are frequently used to study water vapour (H2O) in the stratosphere, in which the tropical cold-point temperatures regulate H2O amount entering the stratosphere. Therefore, the accuracy of temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is of great importance for trajectory studies. Currently, most reanalyses, such as the NASA MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications), only provide temperatures with ~1.2 km vertical resolution in the TTL, which has been argued to introduce uncertainties in the simulations. In this paper, we quantify this uncertainty by comparing the trajectory results using MERRA temperatures on model levels (traj.MER-T) to those using temperatures in finite resolutions, including GPS temperatures (traj.GPS-T) and MERRA temperatures adjusted to recover wave-induced variability underrepresented by the current ~1.2 km vertical resolution (traj.MER-Twave). Comparing with traj.MER-T, traj.GPS-T has little impact on simulated stratospheric H2O (changes ~0.1 ppmv), whereas traj.MER-Twave tends to dry air by 0.2–0.3 ppmv. The bimodal dehydration peaks in traj.MER-T due to limited vertical resolution disappear in traj.GPS-T and traj.MER-Twave by allowing the cold-point tropopause to be found at finer vertical levels. Despite these differences in absolute values of predicted H2O and vertical dehydration patterns, there is virtually no difference in the interannual variability in different runs. Overall, we find that the finite resolution of temperature has limited impact on predicted H2O in the trajectory model.

Seasonal variation in births in rural East Pakistan

1972 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Stoeckel ◽  
A. K. M. Alauddin Choudhury
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Social Factors ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
First Order ◽  
Monthly Temperature ◽  
Monthly Distribution ◽  
Number Of Births

SummaryAn analysis of the monthly distribution of births in two areas of Matlab Thana, East Pakistan, indicates that there is a seasonal variation in births different from what would be expected by chance. The highest proportion of births occur in the last three months of a year and the lowest proportion between May and July. Investigation into some of the environmental and social factors which might contribute to the seasonal pattern revealed the following: mean minimum monthly temperature 9 months before birth was inversely related to the number of births; all occupations had seasonal patterns different from what would be expected by chance and the business and mill-and-office occupations had distributions significantly different from each other; the distribution of births for all pregnancy orders was different from chance and the distribution for first order pregnancies was significantly different from those for third and fourth or higher orders.

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