Seasonal variation in births in rural East Pakistan

1972 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Stoeckel ◽  
A. K. M. Alauddin Choudhury

SummaryAn analysis of the monthly distribution of births in two areas of Matlab Thana, East Pakistan, indicates that there is a seasonal variation in births different from what would be expected by chance. The highest proportion of births occur in the last three months of a year and the lowest proportion between May and July. Investigation into some of the environmental and social factors which might contribute to the seasonal pattern revealed the following: mean minimum monthly temperature 9 months before birth was inversely related to the number of births; all occupations had seasonal patterns different from what would be expected by chance and the business and mill-and-office occupations had distributions significantly different from each other; the distribution of births for all pregnancy orders was different from chance and the distribution for first order pregnancies was significantly different from those for third and fourth or higher orders.

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1091-1108 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. De Weirdt ◽  
H. Verbeeck ◽  
F. Maignan ◽  
P. Peylin ◽  
B. Poulter ◽  
...  

Abstract. The influence of seasonal phenology on canopy photosynthesis in tropical evergreen forests remains poorly understood, and its representation in global ecosystem models is highly simplified, typically with no seasonal variation of canopy leaf properties taken into account. Including seasonal variation in leaf age and photosynthetic capacity could improve the correspondence of global vegetation model outputs with the wet–dry season CO2 patterns measured at flux tower sites in these forests. We introduced a leaf litterfall dynamics scheme in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE based on seasonal variations in net primary production (NPP), resulting in higher leaf turnover in periods of high productivity. The modifications in the leaf litterfall scheme induce seasonal variation in leaf age distribution and photosynthetic capacity. We evaluated the results of the modification against seasonal patterns of three long-term in-situ leaf litterfall datasets of evergreen tropical forests in Panama, French Guiana and Brazil. In addition, we evaluated the impact of the model improvements on simulated latent heat (LE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) fluxes for the flux tower sites Guyaflux (French Guiana) and Tapajós (km 67, Brazil). The results show that the introduced seasonal leaf litterfall corresponds well with field inventory leaf litter data and times with its seasonality. Although the simulated litterfall improved substantially by the model modifications, the impact on the modelled fluxes remained limited. The seasonal pattern of GPP improved clearly for the Guyaflux site, but no significant improvement was obtained for the Tapajós site. The seasonal pattern of the modelled latent heat fluxes was hardly changed and remained consistent with the observed fluxes. We conclude that we introduced a realistic and generic litterfall dynamics scheme, but that other processes need to be improved in the model to achieve better simulations of GPP seasonal patterns for tropical evergreen forests.


1995 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-117
Author(s):  
Frank H Anderson ◽  
Lecheng Zeng

Ulcerative colitis (UC) reportedly has a seasonal variation of exacerbations. No seasonal variation of relapses in Crohn's disease (CD) has been reported. A retrospective study of the monthly distribution in the relapses of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) demonstrated seasonality in both UC and CD. From 1971-93, 226 patients (CD=139, UC=87) with regular follow-ups for at least 13 consecutive months were analyzed. In the study period, 592 relapses occurred in CD patients and 300 in UC patients. The peak relapse seasons were autumn and winter and the lowest was summer, for both CD and UC. The seasonal pattern was independent of sex. These results support the view that seasonal factors may be involved in the relapse of IBD.


2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 250-256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johan Fellman

The seasonality of population data has been of great interest in demographic studies. When seasonality is analyzed, the population at risk plays a central role. In a study of the monthly number of births and deaths, the population at risk is the product of the size of the population and the length of the month. Usually, the population can be assumed to be constant, and consequently, the population at risk is proportional to the length of the month. Hence, the number of cases per day has to be analyzed. If one studies the seasonal variation in twin or multiple maternities, the population at risk is the total number of monthly confinements, and the study should be based on the rates of the multiple maternities. Consequently, if one considers monthly twinning rates, the monthly number of birth data is eliminated and one obtains an unaffected seasonality measure of the twin maternities. The strength of the seasonality is measured by a chi-squared test or by the standard deviation. When seasonal models are applied, one must pay special attention to how well the model fits the data. If the goodness of fit is poor, it can erroneously result in a statement that the seasonality is slight, although the observed seasonal fluctuations are marked.


2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1601.2-1601
Author(s):  
H. So ◽  
Y. Shen ◽  
T. L. V. Wong ◽  
R. Ho ◽  
T. Li ◽  
...  

Background:Seasonal patterns of disease onset and severity in idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) as a whole are conflicting [1-3]. In recent years, over 10 myositis-specific antibodies (MSAs) have been identified. They are able to divide patients into homogenous subgroups and inform on prognosis [4].Objectives:The objective of the study was to investigate the seasonal variation of onset of IIMs characterised serologically.Methods:This was a multi-centred retrospective observational study. Consecutive Chinese patients with IIMs admitted to the rheumatology wards of the participating major regional hospitals in Beijing and Hong Kong from July 2013 to June 2018 were recruited. The diagnosis of IIMs was based on the Bohan and Peter’s criteria with definite or probable cases being included [5]. Patients with clinically amyopathic disease must have the typical Gottron’s papules or heliotrope rash as determined by rheumatologists or dermatologists, and with no symptoms or signs of muscle involvement according to Sontheimer [6]. Patients with juvenile myositis, inclusion body myositis, cancer-associated myositis and myositis associated with other connective tissue disease were excluded. A commercial line blot immunoassay kit (EUROLINE) was used to detect the MSAs.Results:All together 495 patients were studied. The mean age of the patients at disease onset was 48.1 years (S.D. 13.3). There was a female predominance (68.3%). The subgroups of IIMs were: dermatomyositis (61.0%), polymyositis (21.8%), clinically amyopathic dermatomyositis (12.9%), immune mediated necrotising myopathy (3.8%) and nonspecific myositis (0.4%). No particular seasonal pattern in disease onset was observed in IIM patients as a whole (Figure 1) or in any classical subgroups. However, significantly more patients with any one MSA had their disease started in the first half of the year (p=0.007) as shown in Figure 2. Patients with either anti-synthetase or anti-MDA5 antibodies, which are associated with interstitial lung disease, had more frequent disease onset from November to February, which might coincide with the local flu season. It was also found that MSA positivity was associated with infection of the patient (p=0.005). Further analyses showed that patients with MSAs which are typically associated with severe skin disease (MDA5, TIF1g, NXP2, SAE) had more hospitalisation from April to September where excessive sun exposure is expected. There were no major differences between the Beijing and Hong Kong subgroups.Conclusion:Apparent seasonal patterns were noticed in our ethno-serologically defined IIM patients. Certain environmental factors, particularly infection or UV exposure, could be potential triggers. Our findings could shed light on the identification of etiologic factors and enhance our understanding of disease pathogenesis.References:[1]Manta P, Kalfakis N, Vassilopoulos D. Evidence for Seasonal Variation in Polymyositis. Neuroepidemiology 1989;8:262–265.[2]Phillips BA, Zilko PJ, Garlepp MJ, et al. Seasonal occurrence of relapses in inflammatory myopathies: a preliminary study. J Neurol 2002;249:441–4.[3]Lefe R, Burgess S, Miller F, et al. Distinct Seasonal Pattern in The Onset of Adult Idiopathic Inflammatory Myopathy in Patients with Auto Antibodies Anti-Jo-1 and Anti-Signal Recognition particle. Arthritis and Rheumatism 1991;34(11):1391-1396.[4]Tansley SL, Betterridge ZE, McHugh NJ. The diagnostic utility of autoantibodies in adult and juvenile myostis. Curt Opin Rheumatol 2013;25(6):772-777.[5]Bohan A, Peter JB. Polymyositis and dermatomyositis. N Engl J Med 1975;292:344-347.[6]Sontheimer RD. Clinically myopathic dermatomyositis: what can we now tell our patients? Arch Dermatol 2010;146(1):76-80.Disclosure of Interests:None declared


Crisis ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Hideki Bando ◽  
Fernando Madalena Volpe

Background: In light of the few reports from intertropical latitudes and their conflicting results, we aimed to replicate and update the investigation of seasonal patterns of suicide occurrences in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Data relating to male and female suicides were extracted from the Mortality Information Enhancement Program (PRO-AIM), the official health statistics of the municipality of São Paulo. Seasonality was assessed by studying distribution of suicides over time using cosinor analyses. Results: There were 6,916 registered suicides (76.7% men), with an average of 39.0 ± 7.0 observed suicides per month. For the total sample and for both sexes, cosinor analysis estimated a significant seasonal pattern. For the total sample and for males suicide peaked in November (late spring) with a trough in May–June (late autumn). For females, the estimated peak occurred in January, and the trough in June–July. Conclusions: A seasonal pattern of suicides was found for both males and females, peaking in spring/summer and dipping in fall/winter. The scarcity of reports from intertropical latitudes warrants promoting more studies in this area.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikołaj Kamiński ◽  
Matylda Kręgielska-Narożna ◽  
Paweł Bogdański

Abstract Background Detection of the seasonal patterns of healthy and unhealthy behavior could be helpful for designing individual and population health interventions programs. This study investigates the seasonal variation in sales of common types of products in Poland and Polish Google queries related to healthy behavior. Methods Data of index sales from a large Polish retail store franchise, from January 2014 to August 2019, has been analyzed. The commercial data included twelve types of products. The interest of Google users was investigated using Google Trends statistics for the same period for six lifestyle-related topics. The seasonality was checked using time series analysis. Results Six of the consumer goods (dairy, ready-made meals, salty snacks, meats, beer, and cigarettes) were most commonly purchased in summer months, four (processed fish, food fats, wine, and alcohol 30%+) in December, and two (bread and sweets) in October. The lowest sales indexes were observed mostly in February. The interest in four topics that have been analyzed (“Diet,” “Dietitian,” “Weight loss,” and “Gym”), was highest in January, while interest in “Dietary supplements” was high in February, and “Running” in May. The search volume of the Google topics were the lowest in December. Conclusion The purchase of food, drinks, and cigarettes, and the interest in information regarding different components of a healthy lifestyle has seasonal variation. New Year and Lent might be good periods to encourage healthy behavior. The motivation may decrease in summer and during Christmas.


2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (11) ◽  
pp. 2403-2409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. H. LU ◽  
H. Z. QIAN ◽  
A. Q. HU ◽  
X. QIN ◽  
Q. W. JIANG ◽  
...  

SUMMARYWe studied seasonal patterns of swine hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection in China. From 2008 to 2011, 4200 swine bile specimens were collected for the detection of HEV RNA. A total of 92/2400 (3·83%) specimens in eastern China and 47/1800 (2·61%) specimens in southwestern China were positive for HEV. Seasonal patterns differing by geographical area were suggested. In eastern China, the major peak of HEV RNA prevalence was during March–April, with a minor peak during September–October, and a dip during July–August. In southwestern China, the peak was during September–October and the dip during March–April. The majority of subtype 4a cases (63/82, 76·83%) were detected in the first half of the year, while the majority of subtype 4b cases (26/29, 89·66%) were concentrated in the second half of the year, suggesting that different subtypes contribute to different peaks. Our results indicate that the distribution of HEV subtypes is associated with seasonal patterns.


Author(s):  
Belén Mora Garijo ◽  
Jonathan E. Katz ◽  
Aubrey Greer ◽  
Mia Gonzalgo ◽  
Alejandro García López ◽  
...  

AbstractSeveral diseases associated with erectile dysfunction (ED), such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and coronary artery disease (CAD), are known to have seasonal variation, with increased incidence during winter months. However, no literature exists on whether this chronological-seasonal evolution is also present within ED symptomatology. We hypothesized ED would follow the seasonal pattern of its lifestyle-influenced comorbid conditions and exhibit increased incidence during winter months. In order to investigate the seasonal variation of ED in the United States between 2009 and 2019, Internet search query data were obtained using Google Trends. Normalized search volume was determined during the winter and summer seasons for ED, other diseases known to be significantly associated with ED (T2DM and CAD), kidney stones (positive control), and prostate cancer (negative control). There were significantly more internet search queries for ED during the winter than during the summer (p = 0.001). CAD and T2DM also had significantly increased search volume during winter months compared to summer months (p < 0.001 and p = 0.011, respectively). By contrast, searches for kidney stones were significantly increased in the summer than in the winter (p < 0.001). There was no significant seasonal variation in the relative search frequency for prostate cancer (p = 0.75). In conclusion, Google Trends internet search data across a ten-year period in the United States suggested a seasonal variation in ED, which implies an increase in ED during winter. This novel finding in ED epidemiology may help increase awareness of ED’s associated lifestyle risk factors, which may facilitate early medical evaluation and treatment for those at risk of both ED and cardiovascular disease.


2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 835-844 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Rayner ◽  
A. Stavert ◽  
M. Scholze ◽  
A. Ahlström ◽  
C. E. Allison ◽  
...  

Abstract. We analyse global and regional changes in CO2 fluxes using two simple models, an airborne fraction of anthropogenic emissions and a linear relationship with CO2 concentrations. We show that both models are able to fit the non-anthropogenic (hereafter natural) flux over the length of the atmospheric concentration record. Analysis of the linear model (including its uncertainties) suggests no significant decrease in the response of the natural carbon cycle. Recent data points rather to an increase. We apply the same linear diagnostic to fluxes from atmospheric inversions. Flux responses show clear regional and seasonal patterns driven by terrestrial uptake in the northern summer. Ocean fluxes show little or no linear response. Terrestrial models show clear responses, agreeing globally with the inversion responses, however the spatial structure is quite different, with dominant responses in the tropics rather than the northern extratropics.


2005 ◽  
Vol 134 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. R. AL-AJAM ◽  
A. R. BIZRI ◽  
J. MOKHBAT ◽  
J. WEEDON ◽  
L. LUTWICK

Mucormycosis is a fairly rare fungal infection caused by ubiquitous fungi of the order Mucorales and primarily affects immunocompromised hosts. A series of 16 cases of invasive mucormycosis admitted to three referral centres in Beirut, Lebanon between 1981 and 1999 is described. It includes 12 patients with rhinocerebral, three with cutaneous, and one with pulmonary infection. Onset of symptoms occurred in the summer and autumn in 15 out of 16 patients, showing a statistically significant seasonal variation (P=0·007) A recent report of 19 patients from Tel Aviv describes a strikingly similar seasonal pattern. Studies on atmospheric concentration of Mucorales spores in the Eastern Mediterranean are lacking. Weather pattern analysis in Beirut revealed clustering of onset of invasive mucormycosis at the end of a dry, warm period, which begins around May and ends in October. Mucormycosis incidence appears to be seasonal in the Eastern Mediterranean.


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