scholarly journals Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization, and land use: implications for air quality

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-68
Author(s):  
Yang Li ◽  
Loretta J. Mickley ◽  
Jed O. Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
New Mexico ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
North America ◽  
Human Health ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Fine Dust ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Dust Emissions ◽  
Dust Mobilization

Abstract. Climate models predict a shift toward warmer and drier environments in southwestern North America. The consequences of such a shift for dust mobilization and dust concentration are unknown, but they could have large implications for human health, given the connections between dust inhalation and disease. Here we link a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-LMfire) to a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to assess the impacts of future changes in three factors – climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use practices – on vegetation in this region. From there, we investigate the impacts of changing vegetation on dust mobilization and assess the net effect on fine dust concentration (defined as dust particles less than 2.5 µm in diameter) on surface air quality. We find that surface temperatures in southwestern North America warm by 3.3 K and precipitation decreases by nearly 40 % by 2100 in the most extreme warming scenario (RCP8.5; RCP refers to Representative Concentration Pathway) in spring (March, April, and May) – the season of greatest dust emissions. Such conditions reveal an increased vulnerability to drought and vegetation die-off. Enhanced CO2 fertilization, however, offsets the modeled effects of warming temperatures and rainfall deficit on vegetation in some areas of the southwestern US. Considering all three factors in the RCP8.5 scenario, dust concentrations decrease over Arizona and New Mexico in spring by the late 21st century due to greater CO2 fertilization and a more densely vegetated environment, which inhibits dust mobilization. Along Mexico's northern border, dust concentrations increase as a result of the intensification of anthropogenic land use. In contrast, when CO2 fertilization is not considered in the RCP8.5 scenario, vegetation cover declines significantly across most of the domain by 2100, leading to widespread increases in fine dust concentrations, especially in southeastern New Mexico (up to ∼ 2.0 µg m−3 relative to the present day) and along the border between New Mexico and Mexico (up to ∼ 2.5 µg m−3). Our results have implications for human health, especially for the health of the indigenous people who make up a large percentage of the population in this region.

scholarly journals Response of dust emissions in southwestern North America to 21st century trends in climate, CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization, and land use: Implications for air quality

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Li ◽  
Loretta J. Mickley ◽  
Jed O. Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
New Mexico ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
North America ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Dust Emissions ◽  
Northern Mexico ◽  
Northern Border

Abstract. Climate models predict a shift toward warmer and drier environments in southwestern North America. However, the projected dust trends under climate change are sometimes contradictory. Here we link a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-LMfire) to a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to assess the impacts of future changes in climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use practices on dust mobilization, and to investigate the consequences for surface air quality. Considering all factors in the most extreme future warming scenario, we find decreasing trends of fine dust emissions over Arizona and New Mexico but increasing emissions along Mexico's northern border in the late-21st century during springtime, the season of maximum dust emissions. These trends result from more densely vegetated environments in the arid southwestern U.S. under future climate, but sparser vegetation in northern Mexico. The two main drivers of dust trends in this region – CO2 fertilization and land use intensification – play opposing roles, with the first driver enhancing vegetation and thus decreasing dust in the southwestern U.S. and the second driver increasing dust in northern Mexico. In the absence of CO2 fertilization, the RCP8.5 scenario places an upper bound on increases in dust, with elevated concentrations widespread over the southwestern North America by 2100 in spring, especially in southeastern New Mexico (up to ~2.0 µg m−3) and along the border between New Mexico and Mexico (up to ~2.5 µg m−3).

scholarly journals Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 15469-15495 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Wu ◽  
L. J. Mickley ◽  
J. O. Kaplan ◽  
D. J. Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Secondary Organic Aerosols ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Organic Aerosols ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Anthropogenic Land Use

Abstract. The effects of future land use and land cover change on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and air quality are largely unknown. To investigate the potential effects associated with future changes in vegetation driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and anthropogenic land use over the 21st century, we performed a series of model experiments combining a general circulation model with a dynamic global vegetation model and an atmospheric chemical-transport model. Our results indicate that climate- and CO2-induced changes in vegetation composition and density could lead to decreases in summer afternoon surface ozone of up to 10 ppb over large areas of the northern mid-latitudes. This is largely driven by the substantial increases in ozone dry deposition associated with changes in the composition of temperate and boreal forests where conifer forests are replaced by those dominated by broadleaf tree types, as well as a CO2-driven increase in vegetation density. Climate-driven vegetation changes over the period 2000–2100 lead to general increases in isoprene emissions, globally by 15 % in 2050 and 36 % in 2100. These increases in isoprene emissions result in decreases in surface ozone concentrations where the NOx levels are low, such as in remote tropical rainforests. However, over polluted regions, such as the northeastern United States, ozone concentrations are calculated to increase with higher isoprene emissions in the future. Increases in biogenic emissions also lead to higher concentrations of secondary organic aerosols, which increase globally by 10 % in 2050 and 20 % in 2100. Surface concentrations of secondary organic aerosols are calculated to increase by up to 1 μg m−3 for large areas in Eurasia. When we use a scenario of future anthropogenic land use change, we find less increase in global isoprene emissions due to replacement of higher-emitting forests by lower-emitting cropland. The global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosols changes little by 2100 when we account for future land use change, but both secondary organic aerosols and ozone show large regional changes at the surface.

scholarly journals Medellin Air Quality Initiative (MAUI)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres Yarce Botero ◽  
Olga Lucia Quintero Montoya ◽  
Santiago Lopez-Restrepo ◽  
Nicolás Pinel ◽  
Jhon Edinson Hinestroza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Region Of Interest ◽  
Pollution Assessment ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Cellular Damage

This chapter book presents Medellín Air qUality Initiative or MAUI Project; it tells a brief story of this teamwork, their scientific and technological directions. The modeling work focuses on the ecosystems and human health impact due to the exposition of several pollutants transported from long-range places and deposited. For this objective, the WRF and LOTOS-EUROS were configurated and implemented over the región of interest previously updating some input conditions like land use and orography. By other side, a spinoff initiative named SimpleSpace was also born during this time, developing, through this instrumentation branch a very compact and modular low-cost sensor to deploy in new air quality networks over the study domain. For testing this instrument and find an alternative way to measure pollutants in the vertical layers, the Helicopter In-Situ Pollution Assessment Experiment HIPAE misión was developed to take data through the overflight of a helicopter over Medellín. From the data obtained from the Simple units and other experiments in the payload, a citogenotoxicity analysis quantify the cellular damage caused by the exposition of the pollutants.

scholarly journals A chronology of global air quality

2020 ◽  
Vol 378 (2183) ◽  
pp. 20190314 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Fowler ◽  
Peter Brimblecombe ◽  
John Burrows ◽  
Mathew R. Heal ◽  
Peringe Grennfelt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
North America ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Secondary Pollutants ◽  
Surface Measurements ◽  
Global Emissions

Air pollution has been recognized as a threat to human health since the time of Hippocrates, ca 400 BC. Successive written accounts of air pollution occur in different countries through the following two millennia until measurements, from the eighteenth century onwards, show the growing scale of poor air quality in urban centres and close to industry, and the chemical characteristics of the gases and particulate matter. The industrial revolution accelerated both the magnitude of emissions of the primary pollutants and the geographical spread of contributing countries as highly polluted cities became the defining issue, culminating with the great smog of London in 1952. Europe and North America dominated emissions and suffered the majority of adverse effects until the latter decades of the twentieth century, by which time the transboundary issues of acid rain, forest decline and ground-level ozone became the main environmental and political air quality issues. As controls on emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides (SO 2 and NO x ) began to take effect in Europe and North America, emissions in East and South Asia grew strongly and dominated global emissions by the early years of the twenty-first century. The effects of air quality on human health had also returned to the top of the priorities by 2000 as new epidemiological evidence emerged. By this time, extensive networks of surface measurements and satellite remote sensing provided global measurements of both primary and secondary pollutants. Global emissions of SO 2 and NO x peaked, respectively, in ca 1990 and 2018 and have since declined to 2020 as a result of widespread emission controls. By contrast, with a lack of actions to abate ammonia, global emissions have continued to grow. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Air quality, past present and future’.

scholarly journals Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1597-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Wu ◽  
L. J. Mickley ◽  
J. O. Kaplan ◽  
D. J. Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Secondary Organic Aerosols ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Organic Aerosols ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Anthropogenic Land Use

Abstract. The effects of future land use and land cover change on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and air quality are largely unknown. To investigate the potential effects associated with future changes in vegetation driven by atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and anthropogenic land use over the 21st century, we performed a series of model experiments combining a general circulation model with a dynamic global vegetation model and an atmospheric chemical-transport model. Our results indicate that climate- and CO2-induced changes in vegetation composition and density between 2100 and 2000 could lead to decreases in summer afternoon surface ozone of up to 10 ppb over large areas of the northern mid-latitudes. This is largely driven by the substantial increases in ozone dry deposition associated with increases in vegetation density in a warmer climate with higher atmospheric CO2 abundance. Climate-driven vegetation changes over the period 2000–2100 lead to general increases in isoprene emissions, globally by 15% in 2050 and 36% in 2100. These increases in isoprene emissions result in decreases in surface ozone concentrations where the NOx levels are low, such as in remote tropical rainforests. However, over polluted regions, such as the northeastern United States, ozone concentrations are calculated to increase with higher isoprene emissions in the future. Increases in biogenic emissions also lead to higher concentrations of secondary organic aerosols, which increase globally by 10% in 2050 and 20% in 2100. Summertime surface concentrations of secondary organic aerosols are calculated to increase by up to 1 μg m−3 and double for large areas in Eurasia over the period of 2000–2100. When we use a scenario of future anthropogenic land use change, we find less increase in global isoprene emissions due to replacement of higher-emitting forests by lower-emitting cropland. The global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosols changes little by 2100 when we account for future land use change, but both secondary organic aerosols and ozone show large regional changes at the surface.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document