Range Sizes of the World’s Mammals, Birds, and Amphibians from the Mid-Holocene to the Industrial Period

Anthropogenic land use and climate change in the Industrial age have had substantial impacts on the geographic ranges of the world’s terrestrial animal species. How do these impacts compare against those in the millennia preceding the Industrial era? Here, we combine reconstructions of global climate and land use from 6000 BCE to 1850 CE with empirical data on the spatial distributions and habitat requirements of 16,919 mammal, bird, and amphibian species to estimate changes in their range sizes through time. We find that land use had only a small, yet almost entirely negative impact during most of the study period, whilst natural climatic variability led to some range expansions and contractions; but, overall it had a small impact on the majority of species. Our results provide a baseline for comparison with studies of range changes during the Industrial period, demonstrating that contemporary rates of range loss exceed the magnitude of range changes seen over many thousands of years prior to the Industrial period by an alarming extent.

Combining Remote Sensing and Species Distribution Modelling to Assess Pinus hartwegii Response to Climate Change and Land Use from Izta-Popo National Park, Mexico

A detailed analysis of distribution shifts in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. is provided across time for Izta-Popo National Park (México). Combining satellite images, species distribution models, and connectivity analysis we disentangled the effect of climate change and anthropogenic land use on the habitat availability. Twenty-four Maxent habitat suitability models with varying complexity were combined with insights on vegetation and land cover change derived from two Landsat satellite images at 30-m resolution from 1993 and 2013. To evaluate effects of climate change on Izta-Popo’s P. hartwegii forest, projections for future climatic conditions (averaged for 2050 and 2070) were derived using two General Circulation Models under three Representative CO2 concentration pathways (RCPs). Calculated fragmentation and connectivity indexes (Equivalent Connected Area and Probability of Connectivity metrics) showed significant habitat loss and habitat fragmentation that weakens P. hartwegii dispersion flux and the strength of connections. Projections of future climate conditions showed a reduction of P. hartwegii habitat suitability as populations would have to migrate to higher altitudes. However, the impact of anthropogenic land use change documented over the 20 years masks the predicted impact of climate change in Izta-Popo National Park.

Signals of Holocene climate transition amplified by anthropogenic land-use changes in the westerly–Indian monsoon realm

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is the lifeline for people living on the Indian subcontinent today and was possibly the driver of the rise and fall of early agricultural societies in the past. The intensity and position of the ISM have shifted in response to orbitally forced thermal land–ocean contrasts. At the northwestern monsoon margins, interactions between the subtropical westerly jet (STWJ) and the ISM constitute a tipping element in the Earth's climate system because their non-linear interaction may be a first-order influence on rainfall. We reconstructed marine sea surface temperature (SST), supply of terrestrial material and vegetation changes from a very well-dated sediment core from the northern Arabian Sea to reconstruct the STWJ–ISM interaction. The Holocene record (from 11 000 years) shows a distinct, but gradual, southward displacement of the ISM in the Early to Mid-Holocene, increasingly punctuated by phases of intensified STWJ events that are coeval with interruptions of North Atlantic overturning circulation (Bond events). The effects of the non-linear interactions culminate between 4.6 and 3 ka BP, marking a climatic transition period during which the ISM shifted southwards and the influence of STWJ became prominent. The lithogenic matter input shows an up to 4-fold increase after this time period, probably related to the strengthened influence of agricultural activities of the Indus civilization, with enhanced erosion of soils. This anthropogenic land-use change is amplifying the impact of Bond events and adding to the marine sedimentation rates adjacent to the continent.

Effects of land-use and landscape drivers in the species richness and distribution of carnivores in Faragosa-Fura Landscape of Southern Rift Valley, Ethiopia

Understanding the species richness and distribution of carnivores across anthropogenic land-use types in an area is an essential first step for biodiversity conservation and human-carnivore coexistence. However, quantitative data on carnivore species coexisting with humans in different land-use types remain largely missing. Thus, this paper investigated the effect of anthropogenic land-use and landscape drivers on carnivore species richness and distribution in the Faragosa-Fura Landscape, Gamo Zone, southern Ethiopia. To collect data, we employed the line transect method using three complementary field surveys techniques: sign survey, camera-trapping, and opportunistic sighting survey during wet and dry seasons in 2020 and 2021. We stratified the study landscape into five land-use types- forest, wetland, grassland, agricultural land, and settlement. The result proved the occurrence of 12 carnivore species belonging to six families, including vulnerable Felidae species - Panthera pardus. Family Felidae and Herpestidae were composed of a greater number of species, while Hyaenidae and Mustelidae were each represented by single species. Out of identified species, only two species (Panthera pardus and Crocuta crocuta) were large-sized, while the rest were medium and small-sized carnivores. Overall, the mean richness of the study area was 5.73±0.284(SE). The species richness was highest in the wetland (n = 12, mean = 7.67±0.494(SE)) and lowest in the settlement (n = 5, mean = 4.25±0.479(SE)). The regression analysis showed that most of the carnivores displayed a strong negative relationship with agriculture, roads, and settlement while displayed a strong positive relationship with wetland and forest. In general, out of 32 species recorded in Ethiopia, this study quantified 12 carnivore species that signify the area is an important area for wildlife conservation in Ethiopia. Further, the study concluded that the wetland is the most important habitat, particularly for larger-sized and habitat specialists while anthropogenic land-uses types adversely affecting species richness. Thus, a generic paradigm to reconcile land management and biodiversity conservation is highly important.