scholarly journals Modelling NO<sub>2</sub> concentrations at the street level in the GAINS integrated assessment model: projections under current legislation

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 22687-22732
Author(s):  
G. Kiesewetter ◽  
J. Borken-Kleefeld ◽  
W. Schöpp ◽  
C. Heyes ◽  
P. Thunis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Limit Values ◽  
Street Level ◽  
Regional Background ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Monitoring Stations

Abstract. NO2 concentrations at the street level are a major concern for urban air quality in Europe and have been regulated under the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Despite the legal requirements, limit values are exceeded at many monitoring stations with little or no improvement during recent years. In order to assess the effects of future emission control regulations on roadside NO2 concentrations, a downscaling module has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model. The module follows a hybrid approach based on atmospheric dispersion calculations and observations from the AirBase European air quality data base that are used to estimate site-specific parameters. Pollutant concentrations at every monitoring site with sufficient data coverage are disaggregated into contributions from regional background, urban increment, and local roadside increment. The future evolution of each contribution is assessed with a model of the appropriate scale – 28 × 28 km grid based on the EMEP Model for the regional background, 7 × 7 km urban increment based on the CHIMERE Chemistry Transport Model, and a chemical box model for the roadside increment. Thus, different emission scenarios and control options for long-range transport, regional and local emissions can be analysed. Observed concentrations and historical trends are well captured, in particular the differing NO2 and total NOx = NO + NO2 trends. Altogether, more than 1950 air quality monitoring stations in the EU are covered by the model, including more than 400 traffic stations and 70% of the critical stations. Together with its well-established bottom-up emission and dispersion calculation scheme, GAINS is thus able to bridge the scales from European-wide policies to impacts in street canyons. As an application of the model, we assess the evolution of attainment of NO2 limit values under current legislation until 2030. Strong improvements are expected with the introduction of the Euro 6 emission standard for light duty vehicles; however, for some major European cities, further measures may be required, in particular if aiming to achieve compliance at an earlier time.

scholarly journals Modelling NO<sub>2</sub> concentrations at the street level in the GAINS integrated assessment model: projections under current legislation

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 813-829 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Kiesewetter ◽  
J. Borken-Kleefeld ◽  
W. Schöpp ◽  
C. Heyes ◽  
P. Thunis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Monitoring Site ◽  
Limit Values ◽  
Street Level ◽  
Regional Background ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Monitoring Stations

Abstract. NO2 concentrations at the street level are a major concern for urban air quality in Europe and have been regulated under the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Despite the legal requirements, limit values are exceeded at many monitoring stations with little or no improvement in recent years. In order to assess the effects of future emission control regulations on roadside NO2 concentrations, a downscaling module has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model. The module follows a hybrid approach based on atmospheric dispersion calculations and observations from the AirBase European air quality database that are used to estimate site-specific parameters. Pollutant concentrations at every monitoring site with sufficient data coverage are disaggregated into contributions from regional background, urban increment, and local roadside increment. The future evolution of each contribution is assessed with a model of the appropriate scale: 28 × 28 km grid based on the EMEP Model for the regional background, 7 × 7 km urban increment based on the CHIMERE Chemistry Transport Model, and a chemical box model for the roadside increment. Thus, different emission scenarios and control options for long-range transport as well as regional and local emissions can be analysed. Observed concentrations and historical trends are well captured, in particular the differing NO2 and total NOx = NO + NO2 trends. Altogether, more than 1950 air quality monitoring stations in the EU are covered by the model, including more than 400 traffic stations and 70% of the critical stations. Together with its well-established bottom-up emission and dispersion calculation scheme, GAINS is thus able to bridge the scales from European-wide policies to impacts in street canyons. As an application of the model, we assess the evolution of attainment of NO2 limit values under current legislation until 2030. Strong improvements are expected with the introduction of the Euro 6 emission standard for light duty vehicles; however, for some major European cities, further measures may be required, in particular if aiming to achieve compliance at an earlier time.

scholarly journals Modelling street level PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations across Europe: source apportionment and possible futures

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1539-1553 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Kiesewetter ◽  
J. Borken-Kleefeld ◽  
W. Schöpp ◽  
C. Heyes ◽  
P. Thunis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Particulate Emissions ◽  
Limit Values ◽  
Modelling Approach ◽  
Monitoring Stations

Abstract. Despite increasing emission controls, particulate matter (PM) has remained a critical issue for European air quality in recent years. The various sources of PM, both from primary particulate emissions as well as secondary formation from precursor gases, make this a complex problem to tackle. In order to allow for credible predictions of future concentrations under policy assumptions, a modelling approach is needed that considers all chemical processes and spatial dimensions involved, from long-range transport of pollution to local emissions in street canyons. Here we describe a modelling scheme which has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model to assess compliance with PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameter <10 μm) limit values at individual air quality monitoring stations reporting to the AirBase database. The modelling approach relies on a combination of bottom up modelling of emissions, simplified atmospheric chemistry and dispersion calculations, and a traffic increment calculation wherever applicable. At each monitoring station fulfilling a few data coverage criteria, measured concentrations in the base year 2009 are explained to the extent possible and then modelled for the past and future. More than 1850 monitoring stations are covered, including more than 300 traffic stations and 80% of the stations which exceeded the EU air quality limit values in 2009. As a validation, we compare modelled trends in the period 2000–2008 to observations, which are well reproduced. The modelling scheme is applied here to quantify explicitly source contributions to ambient concentrations at several critical monitoring stations, displaying the differences in spatial origin and chemical composition of urban roadside PM10 across Europe. Furthermore, we analyse the predicted evolution of PM10 concentrations in the European Union until 2030 under different policy scenarios. Significant improvements in ambient PM10 concentrations are expected assuming successful implementation of already agreed legislation; however, these will not be large enough to ensure attainment of PM10 limit values in hot spot locations such as Southern Poland and major European cities. Remaining issues are largely eliminated in a scenario applying the best available emission control technologies to the maximal technically feasible extent.

scholarly journals Modelling street level PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations across Europe: source apportionment and possible futures

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 18315-18354 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Kiesewetter ◽  
J. Borken-Kleefeld ◽  
W. Schöpp ◽  
C. Heyes ◽  
P. Thunis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Particulate Emissions ◽  
Limit Values ◽  
Modelling Approach ◽  
Monitoring Stations

Abstract. Despite increasing emission controls, particulate matter (PM) has remained a critical issue for European air quality in recent years. The various sources of PM, both from primary particulate emissions as well as secondary formation from precursor gases, make this a complex problem to tackle. In order to allow for credible predictions of future concentrations under policy assumptions, a modelling approach is needed that considers all chemical processes and spatial dimensions involved, from long-range transport of pollution to local emissions in street canyons. Here we describe a modelling scheme which has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model to assess compliance with PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm) limit values at individual air quality monitoring stations reporting to the AirBase database. The modelling approach relies on a combination of bottom up modelling of emissions, simplified atmospheric chemistry and dispersion calculations, and a traffic increment calculation wherever applicable. At each monitoring station fulfilling a few data coverage criteria, measured concentrations in the base year 2009 are explained to the extent possible and then modelled for the past and future. More than 1850 monitoring stations are covered, including more than 300 traffic stations and 80% of the stations which exceeded the EU air quality limit values in 2009. As a validation, we compare modelled trends in the period 2000–2008 to observations, which are well reproduced. The modelling scheme is applied here to quantify explicitly source contributions to ambient concentrations at several critical monitoring stations, displaying the differences in spatial origin and chemical composition of urban roadside PM10 across Europe. Furthermore, we analyse the predicted evolution of PM10 concentrations in the European Union until 2030 under different policy scenarios. Significant improvements in ambient PM10 concentrations are expected assuming successful implementation of already agreed legislation; however, these will not be large enough to ensure attainment of PM10 limit values in hot spot locations such as Southern Poland and major European cities. Remaining issues are largely eliminated in a scenario applying the best available emission control technologies to the maximal technically feasible extent.

scholarly journals ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AIR POLLUTION IN CHINA THROUGH HEALTH AND LABOR SUPPLY PERSPECTIVE: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 2041001
Author(s):  
CAN WANG ◽  
HAI HUANG ◽  
WENJIA CAI ◽  
MENGZHEN ZHAO ◽  
JIN LI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Study Results

An energy supply dominated by the use of fossil fuels causes both climate change and air pollution, which have negative impacts on human capital via both health and productivity. In addition, different people are affected differently because of factors such as age, gender and education level. To enhance the understanding of the benefits of low carbon transition from the labor supply perspective and help to identify strategies of collaborative control for CO2 and local air pollutants in China, an integrated assessment model linking the air quality module and the health impact module with a disaggregated labor sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) economic system is developed and applied in this study. Results show some key findings. First, renewable energy development and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies will contribute significantly to GDP in terms of their impact on air quality improvement by 0.99% and 0.54%, respectively, in 2050. Second, due to differences in labor composition, air pollution has, and will continue to have, the greatest impact on sectors with a higher proportion of male and lower-educated workers — such as the coal sector, and it will have the least impact on sectors with a higher proportion of female and higher-educated workers — such as the public administration sector. Third, the different impacts of sector output will increase economic inequality. Highlights • The economic impact of climate change and air pollution is assessed. • A CGE model with disaggregated labor sectors is developed. • The secondary industry is most affected by pollution from a health perspective. • Low-income groups suffer the largest loss of income due to pollution. • A low carbon policy will improve air quality and economic equity.

scholarly journals The role of biomaterials for the energy transition from the lens of a national integrated assessment model

2021 ◽  
Vol 167 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla C. N. de Oliveira ◽  
Gerd Angelkorte ◽  
Pedro R. R. Rochedo ◽  
Alexandre Szklo
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model

scholarly journals Evaluation of Integrated Assessment Model hindcast experiments: A case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abigail C. Snyder ◽  
Robert P. Link ◽  
Katherine V. Calvin
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Land Allocation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Performance Benchmarks

Abstract. Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data is available) are rarely undertaken in the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) community. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation based measures that can be applied at different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable-region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observational dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. This is key in the integrated assessment community, where there often are not multiple models conducting hindcast experiments to allow for model intercomparison. The performance benchmarks serve a second purpose, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. As a case study, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs, such as GCAM, that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period. Additionally, the deviation measures examined in this work successfully identity parametric and structural changes that may improve land allocation decisions in GCAM. Future work will involve implementing the suggested improvements to the GCAM land allocation system identified by the measures in this work, using the measures to quantify performance improvement due to these changes, and, ideally, applying these measures to other sectors of GCAM and other land allocation models.

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