scholarly journals Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records

2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 1465-1472 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Barbosa ◽  
M. J. Fernandes ◽  
M. E. Silva
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Deterministic Function ◽  
Linear Trends

Abstract. Mean sea level is a variable of considerable interest in meteorological and oceanographic studies, particularly long-term sea level variation and its relation to climate changes. This study concerns the analysis of monthly mean sea level data from tide gauge stations in the Northeast Atlantic with long and continuous records. Much research effort on mean sea level studies has been focused on identifying long-term linear trends, usually estimated through least-squares fitting of a deterministic function. Here, we estimate nonparametric and robust trends using lowess, a robust smoothing procedure based on locally weighted regression. This approach is more flexible than a linear trend to describe the deterministic part of the variation in tide gauge records, which has a complex structure. A common trend pattern of reduced sea levels around 1975 is found in all the analysed records and interpreted as the result of hydrological and atmospheric forcing associated with drought conditions at the tide gauge sites. This feature is overlooked by a linear regression model. Moreover, nonlinear deterministic behaviour in the time series, such as the one identified, introduces a bias in linear trends determined from short and noisy records.Key words. Oceanography: physical (sea level variations); Hydrology (water balance)

scholarly journals Celebrating 80 years of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)

2015 ◽  
Vol 365 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
L. Rickards ◽  
A. Matthwes ◽  
K. Gordon ◽  
M. Tamisea ◽  
S. Jevrejeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
International Union ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Change ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The 19Th Century

Abstract. The PSMSL was established as a “Permanent Service” of the International Council for Science in 1958, but in practice was a continuation of the Mean Sea Level Committee which had been set up at the Lisbon International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) conference in 1933. Now in its 80th year, the PSMSL continues to be the internationally recognised databank for long-term sea level change information from tide gauge records. The PSMSL dataset consists of over 2100 mean sea level records from across the globe, the longest of which date back to the start of the 19th century. Where possible, all data in a series are provided to a common benchmark-controlled datum, thus providing a record suitable for use in time series analysis. The PSMSL dataset is freely available for all to use, and is accessible through the PSMSL website (www.psmsl.org).

scholarly journals Inferring regional vertical crustal velocities from averaged relative sea level trends: A proof of concept

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Bâki Iz ◽  
C. K. Shum ◽  
C. Zhang ◽  
C. Y. Kuo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
Vertical Crustal Motion ◽  
Gps Time Series

AbstractThis study demonstrates that relative sea level trends calculated from long-term tide gauge records can be used to estimate relative vertical crustal velocities in a region with high accuracy. A comparison of the weighted averages of the relative sea level trends estimated at six tide gauge stations in two clusters along the Eastern coast of United States, in Florida and in Maryland, reveals a statistically significant regional vertical crustal motion of Maryland with respect to Florida with a subsidence rate of −1.15±0.15 mm/yr identified predominantly due to the ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment process. The estimate is a consilience value to validate vertical crustal velocities calculated from GPS time series as well as towards constraining predictive GIA models in these regions.

scholarly journals Use of Oceanic Reanalysis to Improve Estimates of Extreme Storm Surge

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (11) ◽  
pp. 2205-2219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Zhai ◽  
Blair Greenan ◽  
Richard Thomson ◽  
Scott Tinis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Steric Effects ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
The West ◽  
Sea Level Variability

AbstractA storm surge hindcast for the west coast of Canada was generated for the period 1980–2016 using a 2D nonlinear barotropic Princeton Ocean Model forced by hourly Climate Forecast System Reanalysis wind and sea level pressure. Validation of the modeled storm surges using tide gauge records has indicated that there are extensive areas of the British Columbia coast where the model does not capture the processes that determine the sea level variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. Some of the discrepancies are linked to large-scale fluctuations, such as those arising from major El Niño and La Niña events. By applying an adjustment to the hindcast using an ocean reanalysis product that incorporates large-scale sea level variability and steric effects, the variance of the error of the adjusted surges is significantly reduced (by up to 50%) compared to that of surges from the barotropic model. The importance of baroclinic dynamics and steric effects to accurate storm surge forecasting in this coastal region is demonstrated, as is the need to incorporate decadal-scale, basin-specific oceanic variability into the estimation of extreme coastal sea levels. The results improve long-term extreme water level estimates and allowances for the west coast of Canada in the absence of long-term tide gauge records data.

A long-term trend and temporal fluctuations of the sea level at the Polish Baltic coast

2011 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Wiśniewski ◽  
Tomasz Wolski ◽  
Stanisław Musielak
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Baltic Coast ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Linear Trends

AbstractThe analysis of sea level record series along the Polish coast is presented. The main aim was to identify linear trends in the sea level changes at the coastal (Świnoujście, Kołobrzeg, Ustka, Łeba, Władysławowo, Hel, Gdynia, Gdańsk), lagoonal (Trzebież, Tokmicko) and riverine (Szczecin) gauge stations. The analysis showed individual coastal stations to differ in the rate of sea level changes. During 60 years of continuous observations (1947–2006), the differences varied from 1.0 (the western part of the coast) to 2.5 mm year−1 (the eastern part of the coast). The longest, more than 100-yr-long data series showed the sea level rise in Świnoujście and Kołobrzeg to be about 0.5 mm year−1; 1.57 mm year−1 being revealed in Gdańsk. Spectral analysis applied to the data showed numerous fluctuations and cyclicity in changes of the annual mean sea level at the Polish coast. A distinct, major 3-year cycle was revealed. In addition, three secondary cycles of 4.6, 6.7, and 8.6 years were present in the data, more or less clearly identifiable at individual stations.

scholarly journals Consequences of sea level variability and sea level rise for Cuban territory

2015 ◽  
Vol 365 ◽  
pp. 22-27
Author(s):  
M. Hernández ◽  
C. A. Martínez ◽  
O. Marzo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
High Tide ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies

Abstract. The objective of the present paper was to determine a first approximation of coastal zone flooding by 2100, taking into account the more persistent processes of sea level variability and non-accelerated linear sea level rise estimation to assess the main impacts. The annual linear rate of mean sea level rise in the Cuban archipelago, obtained from the longest tide gauge records, has fluctuated between 0.005 cm/year at Casilda and 0.214 cm/year at Siboney. The main sea level rise effects for the Cuban coastal zone due to climate change and global warming are shown. Monthly and annual mean sea level anomalies, some of which are similar to or higher than the mean sea level rise estimated for halfway through the present century, reinforce the inland seawater penetration due to the semi-daily high tide. The combination of these different events will result in the loss of goods and services, and require expensive investments for adaption.

scholarly journals Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (23) ◽  
pp. 5946-5951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sönke Dangendorf ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Guy Wöppelmann ◽  
Clinton P. Conrad ◽  
Thomas Frederikse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Equal Proportion ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

scholarly journals Coastal subsidence increases vulnerability to sea level rise over twenty first century in Cartagena, Caribbean Colombia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan D. Restrepo-Ángel ◽  
Héctor Mora-Páez ◽  
Freddy Díaz ◽  
Marin Govorcin ◽  
Shimon Wdowinski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Colombian Government ◽  
The Caribbean

AbstractCartagena is subsiding at a higher rate compared to that of global climate-driven sea level rise. We investigate the relative sea level rise (RSLR) and the influence of vertical land movements in Cartagena through the integration of different datasets, including tide gauge records, GPS geodetic subsidence data, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations of vertical motions. Results reveal a long-term rate (> 60 years) of RSLR of 5.98 ± 0.01 mm/yr. The last two decades exhibited an even greater rate of RSLR of 7.02 ± 0.06 mm/yr. GPS subsidence rates range between − 5.71 ± 2.18 and − 2.85 ± 0.84 mm/yr. InSAR data for the 2014–2020 period show cumulative subsidence rates of up to 72.3 mm. We find that geologically induced vertical motions represent 41% of the observed changes in RSLR and that subsidence poses a major threat to Cartagena’s preservation. The geodetic subsidence rates found would imply a further additional RSLR of 83 mm by 2050 and 225 mm by 2100. The Colombian government should plan for the future and serve as an example to similar cities across the Caribbean.

scholarly journals The imprints of contemporary mass redistribution on local sea level and vertical land motion observations

Solid Earth ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1971-1987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Frederikse ◽  
Felix W. Landerer ◽  
Lambert Caron
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Floor ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Mass Redistribution ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Observations from permanent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations are commonly used to correct tide-gauge observations for vertical land motion (VLM). We combine GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) observations and an ensemble of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) predictions to assess and evaluate the impact of solid-Earth deformation (SED) due to contemporary mass redistribution and GIA on VLM trends derived from GNSS stations. This mass redistribution causes relative sea-level (RSL) and SED patterns that not only vary in space but also exhibit large interannual variability signals. We find that for many stations, including stations in coastal locations, this deformation causes VLM trends on the order of 1 mm yr−1 or higher. In multiple regions, including the Amazon Basin and large parts of Australia, the SED trend flips sign between the first half and second half of the 15-year GRACE record. GNSS records often only span a few years, and due to these interannual variations SED causes substantial biases when the linear trends in these short records are extrapolated back in time. We propose a new method to avoid this potential bias in the VLM-corrected tide-gauge record: instead of correcting tide-gauge records for the observed VLM trend, we first remove the effects from GIA and contemporary mass redistributions from the VLM observations before computing the VLM trend. This procedure reduces the extrapolation bias induced by SED, and it also avoids the bias due to sea-floor deformation: SED includes net sea-floor deformation, which is ignored in global-mean sea-level reconstructions based on VLM-corrected tide-gauge data. We apply this method to 8166 GNSS stations. With this separation, we are able to explain a large fraction of the discrepancy between observed sea-level trends at multiple long tide-gauge records and the global-mean sea-level trend from recent reconstructions.

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