scholarly journals Use of Oceanic Reanalysis to Improve Estimates of Extreme Storm Surge

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (11) ◽  
pp. 2205-2219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Zhai ◽  
Blair Greenan ◽  
Richard Thomson ◽  
Scott Tinis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Steric Effects ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
The West ◽  
Sea Level Variability

AbstractA storm surge hindcast for the west coast of Canada was generated for the period 1980–2016 using a 2D nonlinear barotropic Princeton Ocean Model forced by hourly Climate Forecast System Reanalysis wind and sea level pressure. Validation of the modeled storm surges using tide gauge records has indicated that there are extensive areas of the British Columbia coast where the model does not capture the processes that determine the sea level variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. Some of the discrepancies are linked to large-scale fluctuations, such as those arising from major El Niño and La Niña events. By applying an adjustment to the hindcast using an ocean reanalysis product that incorporates large-scale sea level variability and steric effects, the variance of the error of the adjusted surges is significantly reduced (by up to 50%) compared to that of surges from the barotropic model. The importance of baroclinic dynamics and steric effects to accurate storm surge forecasting in this coastal region is demonstrated, as is the need to incorporate decadal-scale, basin-specific oceanic variability into the estimation of extreme coastal sea levels. The results improve long-term extreme water level estimates and allowances for the west coast of Canada in the absence of long-term tide gauge records data.

scholarly journals Nonlinear absolute sea-level patterns in the long-term-trend tide gauges of the West Coast of North America

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 382-397
Author(s):  
Alberto Boretti
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Relative Rate ◽  
Tide Gauges ◽  
The West ◽  
The Absolute ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractThe research issue of which are the present relative and absolute rates of rise and accelerations for North America is here addressed. The data of the 20 long-term-trend (LTT) tide stations of the West Coast of North America with more than 80 years of recorded data are shown. The absolute rates of rise are computed by considering the absolute vertical velocity of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) antennas near the tide gauges, and the relative rate of sea-level rise from the tide gauge signals. The 20 LTT stations along the West Coast of North America show an average relative rate of rise of -0.38 mm/yr., an average acceleration of +0.0012 mm/yr2, and an average absolute rate of rise of +0.73 mm/yr. This is the first paper publishing a comprehensive survey of the absolute sea-level rates of rise along the West Coast of North America using the reliable information of relative sea-level rates of rise from LTT tide gauges plus the absolute subsidence rates from different GNSS antennas close to the tide gauge installations.

scholarly journals Inferring regional vertical crustal velocities from averaged relative sea level trends: A proof of concept

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Bâki Iz ◽  
C. K. Shum ◽  
C. Zhang ◽  
C. Y. Kuo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
Vertical Crustal Motion ◽  
Gps Time Series

AbstractThis study demonstrates that relative sea level trends calculated from long-term tide gauge records can be used to estimate relative vertical crustal velocities in a region with high accuracy. A comparison of the weighted averages of the relative sea level trends estimated at six tide gauge stations in two clusters along the Eastern coast of United States, in Florida and in Maryland, reveals a statistically significant regional vertical crustal motion of Maryland with respect to Florida with a subsidence rate of −1.15±0.15 mm/yr identified predominantly due to the ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment process. The estimate is a consilience value to validate vertical crustal velocities calculated from GPS time series as well as towards constraining predictive GIA models in these regions.

scholarly journals Atmospheric circulation changes and their impact on extreme sea levels around Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1067-1086 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Colberg ◽  
Kathleen L. McInnes ◽  
Julian O'Grady ◽  
Ron Hoeke
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Sea

Abstract. Projections of sea level rise (SLR) will lead to increasing coastal impacts during extreme sea level events globally; however, there is significant uncertainty around short-term coastal sea level variability and the attendant frequency and severity of extreme sea level events. In this study, we investigate drivers of coastal sea level variability (including extremes) around Australia by means of historical conditions as well as future changes under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). To do this, a multi-decade hindcast simulation is validated against tide gauge data. The role of tide–surge interaction is assessed and found to have negligible effects on storm surge characteristic heights over most of the coastline. For future projections, 20-year-long simulations are carried out over the time periods 1981–1999 and 2081–2099 using atmospheric forcing from four CMIP5 climate models. Changes in extreme sea levels are apparent, but there are large inter-model differences. On the southern mainland coast all models simulated a southward movement of the subtropical ridge which led to a small reduction in sea level extremes in the hydrodynamic simulations. Sea level changes over the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north are largest and positive during austral summer in two out of the four models. In these models, changes to the northwest monsoon appear to be the cause of the sea level response. These simulations highlight a sensitivity of this semi-enclosed gulf to changes in large-scale dynamics in this region and indicate that further assessment of the potential changes to the northwest monsoon in a larger multi-model ensemble should be investigated, together with the northwest monsoon's effect on extreme sea levels.

scholarly journals Celebrating 80 years of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)

2015 ◽  
Vol 365 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
L. Rickards ◽  
A. Matthwes ◽  
K. Gordon ◽  
M. Tamisea ◽  
S. Jevrejeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
International Union ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Change ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The 19Th Century

Abstract. The PSMSL was established as a “Permanent Service” of the International Council for Science in 1958, but in practice was a continuation of the Mean Sea Level Committee which had been set up at the Lisbon International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) conference in 1933. Now in its 80th year, the PSMSL continues to be the internationally recognised databank for long-term sea level change information from tide gauge records. The PSMSL dataset consists of over 2100 mean sea level records from across the globe, the longest of which date back to the start of the 19th century. Where possible, all data in a series are provided to a common benchmark-controlled datum, thus providing a record suitable for use in time series analysis. The PSMSL dataset is freely available for all to use, and is accessible through the PSMSL website (www.psmsl.org).

scholarly journals Assessment of Sea Level Rise at West Coast of Portugal Mainland and Its Projection for the 21st Century

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Antunes
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
The West ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Global Sea Level

Data collected at the Cascais tide gauge, located on the west coast of Portugal Mainland, have been analyzed and sea level rise rates have been updated. Based on a bootstrapping linear regression model and on polynomial adjustments, time series are used to calculate different empirical projections for the 21st century sea level rise, by estimating the initial velocity and its corresponding acceleration. The results are consistent to an accelerated sea level rise, showing evidence of a faster rise than previous century estimates. Based on different numerical methods of second order polynomial fitting, it is possible to build a set of projection models of relative sea level rise. Appling the same methods to regional sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry, additional projections are also built with good consistency. Both data sets, tide gauge and satellite altimetry data, enabled the development of an ensemble of projection models. The relative sea level rise projections are crucial for national coastal planning and management since extreme sea level scenarios can potentially cause erosion and flooding. Based on absolute vertical velocities obtained by integrating global sea level models, neo-tectonic studies and permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) station time series, it is possible to transform relative into absolute sea level rise scenarios, and vice-versa, allowing the generation of absolute sea level rise projection curves and its comparison with already established global projections. The sea level rise observed at the Cascais tide gauge has always shown a significant correlation with global sea level rise observations, evidencing relatively low rates of composed vertical land velocity from tectonic and post-glacial isostatic adjustment, and residual synoptic regional dynamic effects rather than a trend. An ensemble of sea level projection models for the 21st century is proposed with its corresponding probability density function, both for relative and absolute sea level rise for the west coast of Portugal Mainland.

scholarly journals Spatial patterns of linear and nonparametric long-term trends in Baltic sea-level variability

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. V. Donner ◽  
R. Ehrcke ◽  
S. M. Barbosa ◽  
J. Wagner ◽  
J. F. Donges ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The study of long-term trends in tide gauge data is important for understanding the present and future risk of changes in sea-level variability for coastal zones, particularly with respect to the ongoing debate on climate change impacts. Traditionally, most corresponding analyses have exclusively focused on trends in mean sea-level. However, such studies are not able to provide sufficient information about changes in the full probability distribution (especially in the more extreme quantiles). As an alternative, in this paper we apply quantile regression (QR) for studying changes in arbitrary quantiles of sea-level variability. For this purpose, we chose two different QR approaches and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different settings. In particular, traditional linear QR poses very restrictive assumptions that are often not met in reality. For monthly data from 47 tide gauges from along the Baltic Sea coast, the spatial patterns of quantile trends obtained in linear and nonparametric (spline-based) frameworks display marked differences, which need to be understood in order to fully assess the impact of future changes in sea-level variability on coastal areas. In general, QR demonstrates that the general variability of Baltic sea-level has increased over the last decades. Linear quantile trends estimated for sliding windows in time reveal a wide-spread acceleration of trends in the median, but only localised changes in the rates of changes in the lower and upper quantiles.

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