scholarly journals Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 3091-3129 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. B. Wilmes ◽  
C. C. Raible ◽  
T. F. Stocker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Proxy Records

Abstract. To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities regional reconstructions of the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

scholarly journals Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 373-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. B. Wilmes ◽  
C. C. Raible ◽  
T. F. Stocker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Proxy Records

Abstract. To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

scholarly journals Evaluation of PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations of mid-Holocene climate in the Indo-Pacific, Australasian and Southern Ocean regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1661-1684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Ackerley ◽  
Jessica Reeves ◽  
Cameron Barr ◽  
Helen Bostock ◽  
Kathryn Fitzsimmons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Abstract. This study uses the simplified patterns of temperature and effective precipitation approach from the Australian component of the international palaeoclimate synthesis effort (INTegration of Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records – OZ-INTIMATE) to compare atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations and proxy reconstructions. The approach is used in order to identify important properties (e.g. circulation and precipitation) of past climatic states from the models and proxies, which is a primary objective of the Southern Hemisphere Assessment of PalaeoEnvironment (SHAPE) initiative. The AOGCM data are taken from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) mid-Holocene (ca. 6000 years before present, 6 ka) and pre-industrial control (ca. 1750 CE, 0 ka) experiments. The synthesis presented here shows that the models and proxies agree on the differences in climate state for 6 ka relative to 0 ka, when they are insolation driven. The largest uncertainty between the models and the proxies occurs over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). The analysis shows that the lower temperatures in the Pacific at around 6 ka in the models may be the result of an enhancement of an existing systematic error. It is therefore difficult to decipher which one of the proxies and/or the models is correct. This study also shows that a reduction in the Equator-to-pole temperature difference in the Southern Hemisphere causes the mid-latitude westerly wind strength to reduce in the models; however, the simulated rainfall actually increases over the southern temperate zone of Australia as a result of higher convective precipitation. Such a mechanism (increased convection) may be useful for resolving disparities between different regional proxy records and model simulations. Finally, after assessing the available datasets (model and proxy), opportunities for better model–proxy integrated research are discussed.

scholarly journals A new mechanism for atmospheric mercury redox chemistry: Implications for the global mercury budget

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah M. Horowitz ◽  
Daniel J. Jacob ◽  
Yanxu Zhang ◽  
Theodore S. Dibble ◽  
Franz Slemr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Wet Deposition ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Redox Chemistry ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Mercury ◽  
Water Soluble ◽  
Second Stage

Abstract. Mercury (Hg) is emitted to the atmosphere mainly as volatile elemental Hg0. Oxidation to water-soluble HgII controls Hg deposition to ecosystems. Here we implement a new mechanism for atmospheric Hg0 / HgII redox chemistry in the GEOS-Chem global model and examine the implications for the global atmospheric Hg budget and deposition patterns. Our simulation includes a new coupling of GEOS-Chem to an ocean general circulation model (MITgcm), enabling a global 3-D representation of atmosphere-ocean Hg0 / HgII cycling. We find that atomic bromine (Br) of marine organobromine origin is the main atmospheric Hg0 oxidant, and that second-stage HgBr oxidation is mainly by the NO2 and HO2 radicals. The resulting lifetime of tropospheric Hg0 against oxidation is 2.7 months, shorter than in previous models. Fast HgII atmospheric reduction must occur in order to match the ~ 6-month lifetime of Hg against deposition implied by the observed atmospheric variability of total gaseous mercury (TGM ≡ Hg0 + HgII(g)). We implement this reduction in GEOS-Chem as photolysis of aqueous-phase HgII-organic complexes in aerosols and clouds, resulting in a TGM lifetime of 5.2 months against deposition and matching both mean observed TGM and its variability. Model sensitivity analysis shows that the interhemispheric gradient of TGM, previously used to infer a longer Hg lifetime against deposition, is misleading because southern hemisphere Hg mainly originates from oceanic emissions rather than transport from the northern hemisphere. The model reproduces the observed seasonal TGM variation at northern mid-latitudes (maximum in February, minimum in September) driven by chemistry and oceanic evasion, but does not reproduce the lack of seasonality observed at southern hemisphere marine sites. Aircraft observations in the lowermost stratosphere show a strong TGM-ozone relationship indicative of fast Hg0 oxidation, but we show that this relationship provides only a weak test of Hg chemistry because it is also influenced by mixing. The model reproduces observed Hg wet deposition fluxes over North America, Europe, and China, including the maximum over the US Gulf Coast driven by HgBr oxidation by NO2 and HO2. Low Hg wet deposition observed over rural China is attributed to fast HgII reduction in the presence of high organic aerosol concentrations. We find that 80 % of global HgII deposition takes place over the oceans, reflecting the marine origin of Br and low concentrations of marine organics for HgII reduction, and most of HO2 and NO2 for second-stage HgBr oxidation.

scholarly journals Pacific Influences on Tropical Atlantic Teleconnections to the Southern Hemisphere High Latitudes

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6425-6444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham R. Simpkins ◽  
Yannick Peings ◽  
Gudrun Magnusdottir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Dynamical Mechanism

Abstract Several recent studies have connected Antarctic climate variability to tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST), proposing a Rossby wave response from the Atlantic as the primary dynamical mechanism. In this investigation, reanalysis data and atmospheric general circulation model experiments are used to further diagnose these dynamical links. Focus is placed on the possible mediating role of Pacific processes, motivated by the similar spatial characteristics of Southern Hemisphere (SH) teleconnections associated with tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST variability. During austral winter (JJA), both reanalyses and model simulations reveal that Atlantic teleconnections represent a two-mechanism process, whereby increased tropical Atlantic SST promotes two conditions: 1) an intensification of the local Atlantic Hadley circulation (HC), driven by enhanced interaction between SST anomalies and the ITCZ, that increases convergence at the descending branch, establishing anomalous vorticity forcing from which a Rossby wave emanates, expressed as a pattern of alternating positive and negative geopotential height anomalies across the SH extratropics (the so-called HC-driven components); and 2) perturbations to the zonal Walker circulation (WC), driven primarily by an SST-induced amplification, that creates a pattern of anomalous upper-level convergence across the central/western Pacific, from which an ENSO-like Rossby wave train can be triggered (the so-called WC-driven components). While the former are found to dominate, the WC-driven components play a subsidiary yet important role. Indeed, it is the superposition of these two separate but interrelated mechanisms that gives the overall observed response. By demonstrating an additional Pacific-related component to Atlantic teleconnections, this study highlights the need to consider Atlantic–Pacific interactions when diagnosing tropical-related climate variability in the SH extratropics.

scholarly journals Impacts of a Midlatitude Oceanic Frontal Zone for the Baroclinic Annular Mode in the Southern Hemisphere

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-63
Author(s):  
MORIO NAKAYAMA ◽  
HISASHI NAKAMURA ◽  
FUMIAKI OGAWA
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Frontal Zone ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Internal Dynamics ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Major Mode ◽  
Sst Gradient

AbstractAs a major mode of annular variability in the Southern Hemisphere, the baroclinic annular mode (BAM) represents the pulsing of extratropical eddy activity. Focusing mainly on sub-weekly disturbances, this study assesses the impacts of a midlatitude oceanic frontal zone on the BAM and its dynamics through a set of “aqua-planet” atmospheric general circulation model experiments with zonally uniform sea-surface temperature (SST) profiles prescribed. Though idealized, one experiment with realistic frontal SST gradient reasonably well reproduces observed BAM-associated anomalies as a manifestation of a typical lifecycle of migratory baroclinic disturbances. Qualitatively, these BAM features are also simulated in the other experiment where the frontal SST gradient is removed. However, the BAM-associated variability weakens markedly and shifts equatorward, in association with the corresponding modifications in the climatological-mean stormtrack activity. The midlatitude oceanic frontal zone amplifies and anchors the BAM variability by restoring near-surface baroclinicity through anomalous sensible heat supply from the ocean and moisture supply to cyclones, although the BAM is essentially a manifestation of atmospheric internal dynamics. Those experiments and observations further indicate that the BAM modulates momentum flux associated with transient disturbances to induce a modest but robust meridional shift of the polar-front jet, suggesting that the BAM can help maintain the southern annular mode. They also indicate that the quasi-periodic behavior of the BAM is likely to reflect internal dynamics in which atmospheric disturbances on both sub-weekly and longer time scales are involved.

scholarly journals Stratospheric variability and trends in IPCC model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 7657-7695 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. C. Cordero ◽  
P. M. de F. Forster
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Volcanic Aerosols ◽  
Forcing Mechanisms

Abstract. Atmosphere and Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report are analyzed using both 20th and 21st century model output to better understand model variability and assess the importance of various forcing mechanisms on stratospheric trends. While models represent the climatology of the stratosphere reasonably well in comparison with NCEP reanalysis, there are biases and large variability among models. In general, AOGCMs are cooler than NCEP throughout the stratosphere, with the largest differences in the tropics. Around half the AOGCMs have a top level beneath ~2 hPa and show a significant cold bias in their upper levels (~10 hPa) compared to NCEP, suggesting that these models may have compromised simulations near 10 hPa due to a low model top or insufficient stratospheric levels. In the lower stratosphere (50 hPa), the temperature variability associated with large volcanic eruptions is either absent (in about half of the models) or the warming is overestimated in the models that do include volcanic aerosols. There is general agreement on the vertical structure of temperature trends over the last few decades, differences between models are explained by the inclusion of different forcing mechanisms, such as stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosols. However, even when human and natural forcing agents are included in the simulations, significant differences remain between observations and model trends, particularly in the upper tropical troposphere (200 hPa–100 hPa), where, since 1979, models show a warming trend and the observations a cooling trend.

scholarly journals Stratospheric variability and trends in models used for the IPCC AR4

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 5369-5380 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. C. Cordero ◽  
P. M. de F. Forster
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Volcanic Aerosols ◽  
Forcing Mechanisms

Abstract. Atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are analyzed to better understand model variability and assess the importance of various forcing mechanisms on stratospheric trends during the 20th century. While models represent the climatology of the stratosphere reasonably well in comparison with NCEP reanalysis, there are biases and large variability among models. In general, AOGCMs are cooler than NCEP throughout the stratosphere, with the largest differences in the tropics. Around half the AOGCMs have a top level beneath ~2 hPa and show a significant cold bias in their upper levels (~10 hPa) compared to NCEP, suggesting that these models may have compromised simulations near 10 hPa due to a low model top or insufficient stratospheric levels. In the lower stratosphere (50 hPa), the temperature variability associated with large volcanic eruptions is absent in about half of the models, and in the models that do include volcanic aerosols, half of those significantly overestimate the observed warming. There is general agreement on the vertical structure of temperature trends over the last few decades, differences between models are explained by the inclusion of different forcing mechanisms, such as stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosols. However, even when human and natural forcing agents are included in the simulations, significant differences remain between observations and model trends, particularly in the upper tropical troposphere (200 hPa–100 hPa), where, since 1979, models show a warming trend and the observations a cooling trend.

scholarly journals Greenland Ice Sheet influence on Last Interglacial climate: global sensitivity studies performed with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 933-995 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pfeiffer ◽  
G. Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. During the Last Interglacial (LIG, 130–115 kiloyear before present), the northern high latitudes experienced higher temperatures than those of the late Holocene with a notably lower Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). However, the impact of a reduced GIS on the global climate has not yet been well constrained. In this study, we quantify the contribution of the GIS to LIG warmth by performing various sensitivity studies, employing the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS), with a focus on height and extent of the GIS. In order to asses the effects of insolation changes over time and for a comparison of LIG climate with the current interglacial, we perform transient simulations covering the whole LIG and Holocene. We analyze surface air temperature (SAT) and separate the contribution of different forcings to LIG warmth. The strong Northern Hemisphere warming is mainly caused by increased summer insolation. Reducing the height and extent of the GIS leads to a warming of several degrees Celcius in the northern and southern high latitudes during local winter. In order to evaluate the performance of our LIG simulations, we additionally compare the simulated SAT anomalies with marine and terrestrial proxy-based LIG temperature anomalies. Our model results are in good agreement with proxy records with respect to the pattern, but underestimate the reconstructed temperatures. We are able to reduce the mismatch between model and data by taking into account the potential seasonal bias of the proxy record and the uncertainties in the dating of the proxy records for the LIG thermal maximum. The seasonal bias and the uncertainty of the timing are estimated from our own transient model simulations. We note however that our LIG simulations are not able to reproduce the full magnitude of temperature changes indicated by the proxies, suggesting a potential misinterpretation of the proxy records or deficits of our model.

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