A 3D full-Stokes model of Store Glacier, Greenland, with coupling of ice flow, subglacial hydrology, submarine melting and calving

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Cook ◽  
Poul Christoffersen ◽  
Joe Todd ◽  
Donald Slater ◽  
Nolwenn Chauché ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Tidewater Glaciers ◽  
Iceberg Calving ◽  
Subglacial Drainage

<p>Tidewater glaciers are complex systems, which present numerous modelling challenges with regards to integrating a multitude of environmental processes spanning different timescales. At the same time, an accurate representation of these systems in models is critical to being able to effectively predict the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the resulting sea-level rise. In this study, we present results from numerical simulations of Store Glacier in West Greenland that couple ice flow modelled by Elmer/Ice with subglacial hydrology modelled by GlaDS and submarine melting represented with a simple plume model forced by hydrographic observations. The simulations capture the seasonal evolution of the subglacial drainage system and the glacier’s response, and also include the influence of plume-induced ice front melting on calving and buttressing from ice melange present in winter and spring.</p><p>Through running the model for a 6-year period from 2012 to 2017, covering both high- and low-melt years, we find inputs of surface meltwater to the subglacial system establishes channelised subglacial drainage with channels >1 m<sup>2</sup> extending 30-60 km inland depending on the amount of supraglacial runoff evacuated subglacially. The growth of channels is, however, not sufficiently fast to accommodate all inputs of meltwater from the surface, which means that basal water pressures are generally higher in warmer summers compared to cooler summers and lowest in winter months. As a result, the simulated flow of Store Glacier is such that velocities peak in warmer summers, though we suggest that higher surface melt levels may lead to sufficient channelisation for a widespread low-water-pressure system to evolve, which would reduce summer velocities. The results indicate that Greenland’s contribution to sea-level rise is sensitive to the evolution of the subglacial drainage system and especially the ability of channels to grow and accommodate surface meltwater effectively. We also posit that the pattern of plume melting encourages further calving by creating an indented calving front with ‘headlands’ that are laterally unsupported and therefore more vulnerable to collapse. We validate our simulations with a three-week record of iceberg calving events gathered using a terrestrial radar interferometer installed near the calving terminus of Store Glacier.</p>

scholarly journals Sensitivity of a calving glacier to ice–ocean interactions under climate change: new insights from a 3-D full-Stokes model

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1681-1694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Todd ◽  
Poul Christoffersen ◽  
Thomas Zwinger ◽  
Peter Råback ◽  
Douglas I. Benn
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Environmental Sensitivity ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Iceberg Calving ◽  
Southern Side ◽  
Northern Side ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. Iceberg calving accounts for between 30 % and 60 % of net mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has intensified and is now the single largest contributor to global sea level rise in the cryosphere. Changes to calving rates and the dynamics of calving glaciers represent a significant uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A growing body of observational evidence suggests that calving glaciers respond rapidly to regional environmental change, but predictive capacity is limited by the lack of suitable models capable of simulating calving mechanisms realistically. Here, we use a 3-D full-Stokes calving model to investigate the environmental sensitivity of Store Glacier, a large outlet glacier in West Greenland. We focus on two environmental processes: undercutting by submarine melting and buttressing by ice mélange, and our results indicate that Store Glacier is likely to be able to withstand moderate warming perturbations in which the former is increased by 50 % and the latter reduced by 50 %. However, severe perturbation with a doubling of submarine melt rates or a complete loss of ice mélange destabilises the calving front in our model runs. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that stress and fracture patterns at Store's terminus are complex and varied, primarily due to the influence of basal topography. Calving style and environmental sensitivity vary greatly, with propagation of surface crevasses significantly influencing iceberg production in the northern side, whereas basal crevasses dominate in the south. Any future retreat is likely to be initiated in the southern side by a combination of increased submarine melt rates in summer and reduced mélange strength in winter. The lateral variability, as well as the importance of rotational and bending forces at the terminus, underlines the importance of using the 3-D full-Stokes stress solution when modelling Greenland's calving glaciers.

The meltwater feedbacks on ice dynamics, influence of melt amplitude, duration and extent.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Basile de Fleurian ◽  
Petra M. Langebroeke ◽  
Richard Davy
Keyword(s):  
Water Pressure ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
Crucial Parameter ◽  
Subglacial Drainage

<p>In recent years, temperatures over the Greenland ice sheet have been rising, leading to an increase in surface melt. This increase however can not be reduced to a simple number. Throughout the recent years we have seen some extreme melt seasons with melt extending over the whole surface of the ice sheet (2012) or melt seasons of lower amplitudes but with a longer duration (2010). The effect of those variations on the subglacial system and hence on ice dynamic are poorly understood and are still mainly deduced from studies based on mountain glaciers.</p><p>Here we apply the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) to a synthetic glacier with a geometry similar to a Greenland ice sheet land terminating glacier. The forcing is designed such that it allows to investigate different characteristics of the melt season: its length, intensity or the spatial extension of the melt. Subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics are coupled within ISSM is coupled to a subglacial hydrology model, allowing to study the response of the system in terms of subglacial water pressure and the final impact on ice dynamics. Of particular interest is the evolution of the distribution of the efficient and inefficient component of the subglacial drainage system which directly impacts the water pressure evolution at the base of the glacier.</p><p>We note that the initiation of the melt season and the intensity of the melt at this period is a crucial parameter when studying the dynamic response of the glacier to different melt season characteristics. From those results, we can infer a more precise evolution of the dynamics of land terminating glaciers that are heavily driven by their subglacial drainage system. We also highlight which changes in the melt season pattern would be the most damageable for glacier stability in the future.</p>

The role of an interactive Greenland Ice Sheet in abrupt 4xCO2 forcing experiments.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Lee ◽  
Robin S. Smith ◽  
Antony J. Payne
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Surface Melting ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Meltwater Runoff ◽  
Iceberg Calving

<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span>We compare the response of a</span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span> coupled atmosphere-ocean-Greenland Ice Sheet (</span><span>GrIS</span><span>) model forced with an abrupt quadrupling of CO</span></span><sub><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span>2 </span></span></sub><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span>from greenhouse gas concentrations in 1970 with the response of the</span></span> <span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span>atmosphere-ocean model with a static </span><span>GrIS</span><span> . The model, UKESM1.ice.N</span><span>96.ORCA</span><span>1, consists of </span><span>HadGEM</span><span> GC3.1 coupled to the BISICLES ice sheet model with mean annual surface mass balance</span></span> <span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span>(SMB) passed to BISICLES and orography and cumulated iceberg flux passed back to the atmosphere and ocean, respectively, at the end of each year. The differences in the surface temperature and atmospheric fields between the two experiments are confined to Greenland, with no discernible global effects from the evolving orography</span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span>. The volume of the </span><span>GrIS</span><span> decreases by 15 % in 330 years. The surface height decreases the most (over 800m in 330 years) in southwest </span><span>GrIS</span><span> due to surface melting enhanced by feedbacks between elevation, air temperature and albedo. </span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span>The input of freshwater to the ocean from Greenland is enhanced</span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span> due to increased meltwater runoff, but the flux from melting icebergs decays to zero as calving from glaciers declines. The resulting sea level rise is dominated by SMB</span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span>, where the equivalent sea level rise is 1179 mm (5.0 mm/</span><span>yr</span><span>) for the static </span><span>GrIS</span><span> and </span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span>1120 mm</span></span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><span> (4.4 mm/</span><span>yr</span><span>) for the interactive ice sheet at 2300.  There is less sea level rise in the interactive GrIS experiment, even though more mass is lost through surface melting, because the amount lost through iceberg calving decreases as the grounding line of marine-terminating glaciers retreat inland whereas calving in the static experiment is constant.   </span></span><span> </span></p>

scholarly journals Seasonal Variations in the Flow of Land-Terminating Glaciers in Central-West Greenland Using Sentinel-1 Imagery

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriano Lemos ◽  
Andrew Shepherd ◽  
Malcolm McMillan ◽  
Anna Hogg
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Sheet Flow ◽  
Altitudinal Variation ◽  
Weekly Basis ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Temporal Sampling ◽  
First Time ◽  
Subglacial Drainage

Land-terminating sectors of the Greenland ice sheet flow faster in summer after surface meltwater reaches the subglacial drainage system. Speedup occurs when the subglacial drainage system becomes saturated, leading to a reduction in the effective pressure which promotes sliding of the overlying ice. Here, we use observations acquired by the Sentinel-1a and b synthetic aperture radar to track changes in the speed of land-terminating glaciers across a 14,000 km2 sector of west-central Greenland on a weekly basis in 2016 and 2017. The fine spatial and temporal sampling of the satellite data allows us to map the speed of summer and winter across the entire sector and to resolve the weekly evolution of ice flow across the downstream portions of five glaciers. Near to the ice sheet margin (at 650 m.a.s.l.), glacier speedup begins around day 130, persisting for around 90 days, and then peaks around day 150. At four of the five glaciers included in our survey the peak speedup is similar in both years, in Russell Glacier there is marked interannual variability of 32% between 2016 and 2017. We present, for the first time, seasonal and altitudinal variation in speedup persistence. Our study demonstrates the value of Sentinel-1’s systematic and frequent acquisition plan for studying seasonal changes in ice sheet flow.

scholarly journals Tides modulate crevasse opening prior to a major calving event at Bowdoin Glacier, Northwest Greenland

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (255) ◽  
pp. 113-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eef van Dongen ◽  
Guillaume Jouvet ◽  
Andrea Walter ◽  
Joe Todd ◽  
Thomas Zwinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Cyclic Fatigue ◽  
Tidal Amplitude ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Tidewater Glaciers ◽  
Water Level Variations ◽  
Key Driver

AbstractRetreat of calving glaciers worldwide has contributed substantially to sea-level rise in recent decades. Mass loss by calving contributes significantly to the uncertainty of sea-level rise projections. At Bowdoin Glacier, Northwest Greenland, most calving occurs by a few large events resulting from kilometre-scale fractures forming parallel to the calving front. High-resolution terrestrial radar interferometry data of such an event reveal that crevasse opening is fastest at low tide and accelerates during the final 36 h before calving. Using the ice flow model Elmer/Ice, we identify the crevasse water level as a key driver of modelled opening rates. Sea water-level variations in the range of local tidal amplitude (1 m) can reproduce observed opening rate fluctuations, provided crevasse water level is at least 4 m above the low-tide sea level. The accelerated opening rates within the final 36 h before calving can be modelled by additional meltwater input into the crevasse, enhanced ice cliff undercutting by submarine melt, ice damage increase due to tidal cyclic fatigue, crevasse deepening or a combination of these processes. Our results highlight the influence of surface meltwater and tides on crevasse opening leading to major calving events at grounded tidewater glaciers such as Bowdoin.

scholarly journals Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1561-1576 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
H. Seddik ◽  
M. Nodet ◽  
G. Durand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
New Generation

Abstract. Over the last two decades, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an increasing rate, enhancing its contribution to sea-level rise (SLR). The recent increases in ice loss appear to be due to changes in both the surface mass balance of the ice sheet and ice discharge (ice flux to the ocean). Rapid ice flow directly affects the discharge, but also alters ice-sheet geometry and so affects climate and surface mass balance. Present-day ice-sheet models only represent rapid ice flow in an approximate fashion and, as a consequence, have never explicitly addressed the role of ice discharge on the total GrIS mass balance, especially at the scale of individual outlet glaciers. Here, we present a new-generation prognostic ice-sheet model which reproduces the current patterns of rapid ice flow. This requires three essential developments: the complete solution of the full system of equations governing ice deformation; a variable resolution unstructured mesh to resolve outlet glaciers and the use of inverse methods to better constrain poorly known parameters using observations. The modelled ice discharge is in good agreement with observations on the continental scale and for individual outlets. From this initial state, we investigate possible bounds for the next century ice-sheet mass loss. We run sensitivity experiments of the GrIS dynamical response to perturbations in climate and basal lubrication, assuming a fixed position of the marine termini. We find that increasing ablation tends to reduce outflow and thus decreases the ice-sheet imbalance. In our experiments, the GrIS initial mass (im)balance is preserved throughout the whole century in the absence of reinforced forcing, allowing us to estimate a lower bound of 75 mm for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100. In one experiment, we show that the current increase in the rate of ice loss can be reproduced and maintained throughout the whole century. However, this requires a very unlikely perturbation of basal lubrication. From this result we are able to estimate an upper bound of 140 mm from dynamics only for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100.

scholarly journals Glacier Speed-Up Events and Subglacial Hydrology on the Lower Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Laura M. Kehrl
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Glacier Velocity ◽  
Glacier Flow ◽  
Flow Velocities ◽  
Subglacial Drainage

<p>The contribution of glacier mass loss to future sea level rise is still poorly constrained (Lemke and others, 2007). One of the remaining unknowns is how water inputs influence glacier velocity. Short-term variations in glacier velocity occur when a water input exceeds the capacity of the subglacial drainage system, and the subglacial water pressure increases. Several studies (Van de Wal and others, 2008; Sundal and others, 2011) have suggested that high ice-flow velocities during these events are later offset by lower ice-flow velocities due to a more efficient subglacial drainage system. This study combines in-situ velocity measurements with a full Stokes glacier flowline model to understand the spatial and temporal variations in glacier flow on the lower Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand. The Franz Josef Glacier experiences significant water inputs throughout the year (Anderson and others, 2006), and as a result, the subglacial drainage system is likely well-developed. In March 2011, measured ice-flow velocities increased by up to 75% above background values in response to rain events and by up to 32% in response to diurnal melt cycles. These speed-up events occurred at all survey locations across the lower glacier. Through flowline modelling, it is shown that the enhanced glacier flow can be explained by a spatially-uniform subglacial water pressure that increased during periods of heavy rain and glacier melt. From these results, it is suggested that temporary spikes in water inputs can cause glacier speed-up events, even when the subglacial hydrology system is well-developed (cf. Schoof, 2010). Future studies should focus on determining the contribution of glacier speed-up events to overall glacier motion.</p>

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to spatial resolution in higher-order simulations: the AWI contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland using ISSM

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Rückamp ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Angelika Humbert
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Flow Models ◽  
High Emission

Abstract. Projections of the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise include uncertainties primarily due to the imposed climate forcing and the initial state of the ice sheet model. Several state-of-the-art ice flow models are currently being employed on various grid resolutions to estimate future mass changes in the framework of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). Here we investigate the sensitivity to grid resolution on centennial sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet and study the mechanism at play. To this end, we employ the finite-element higher-order ice flow model ISSM and conduct experiments with four different horizontal resolutions, namely 4, 2, 1 and 0.75 km. We run the simulation based on the ISMIP6 core GCM MIROC5 under the high emission scenario RCP8.5 and consider both atmospheric and oceanic forcing in full and separate scenarios. Under the full scenarios, finer simulations unveil up to ~5 % more sea-level rise compared to the coarser resolution. The sensitivity depends on the magnitude of outlet glacier retreat, which is implemented as a series of retreat masks following the ISMIP6 protocol. Without imposed retreat under atmosphere-only forcing, the resolution dependency exhibits an opposite behaviour with about ~ 5 % more sea-level contribution in the coarser resolution. The sea-level contribution indicates a converging behaviour

Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to spatial resolution in higher-order simulations: the AWI contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland using ISSM

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Rückamp ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Thomas Kleiner ◽  
Angelika Humbert
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Glacier Retreat ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Outlet Glacier

&lt;p&gt;Projections of the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise include uncertainties primarily due to the imposed climate forcing and the initial state of the ice sheet model. Several state-of-the-art ice flow models are currently being employed on various grid resolutions to estimate future mass changes in the framework of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). Here we investigate the sensitivity to grid resolution on centennial sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet and study the mechanism at play. To this end, we employ the finite-element higher-order ice flow model ISSM and conduct experiments with four different horizontal resolutions, namely 4, 2, 1 and 0.75 km. We run the simulation based on the ISMIP6 core GCM MIROC5 under the high emission scenario RCP8.5 and consider both atmospheric and oceanic forcing in full and separate scenarios. Under the full scenarios, finer simulations unveil up to 5% more sea-level rise compared to the coarser resolution. The sensitivity depends on the magnitude of outlet glacier retreat, which is implemented as a series of retreat masks following the ISMIP6 protocol. Without imposed retreat under atmosphere-only forcing, the resolution dependency exhibits an opposite behaviour with about 5% more sea-level contribution in the coarser resolution. The sea-level contribution indicates a converging behaviour &amp;#8804; 1 km horizontal resolution. A driving mechanism for differences is the ability to resolve the bed topography, which highly controls ice discharge to the ocean. Additionally, thinning and acceleration emerge to propagate further inland in high resolution for many glaciers. A major response mechanism is sliding (despite no climate-induced hydrological feedback is invoked), with an enhanced feedback on the effective normal pressure N at higher resolution leading to a larger increase in sliding speeds under scenarios with outlet glacier retreat.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 2789-2826 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
H. Seddik ◽  
M. Nodet ◽  
G. Durand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
New Generation

Abstract. Over the last two decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an increasing rate, enhancing its contribution to sea-level rise. The recent increases in ice loss appear to be due to changes in both the surface mass balance of the ice sheet and ice discharge (ice flux to the ocean). Rapid ice flow directly affects the discharge, but also alters ice-sheet geometry and so affects climate and surface mass balance. The most usual ice-sheet models only represent rapid ice flow in an approximate fashion and, as a consequence, have never explicitly addressed the role of ice discharge on the total GrIS mass balance, especially at the scale of individual outlet glaciers. Here, we present a new-generation prognostic ice-sheet model which reproduces the current patterns of rapid ice flow. This requires three essential developments: the complete solution of the full system of equations governing ice deformation; an unstructured mesh to usefully resolve outlet glaciers and the use of inverse methods to better constrain poorly known parameters using observations. The modelled ice discharge is in good agreement with observations on the continental scale and for individual outlets. By conducting perturbation experiments, we investigate how current ice loss will endure over the next century. Although we find that increasing ablation tends to reduce outflow and on its own has a stabilising effect, if destabilisation processes maintain themselves over time, current increases in the rate of ice loss are likely to continue.

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