Can we forecast the arrival of ICMEs for the whole Solar Systems?

Solar wind transients, i.e. interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) drive Space Weather throughout&#160;the heliosphere and the prediction of their impact on different solar system bodies is one of the primary goals of the Planetary Space Weather forecasting. We realized a procedure based on the Drag-Based Model (Vrsnak et al., 2013, Napoletano et al. 2018) which uses probability distributions for the input parameters, and allows the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast. This approach has been tested against a set of ICMEs whose transit times are known, obtaining extremely promising results.We apply this model to propagate a sample of ICMEs from their sources on the solar surface into the heliosphere. We made use of the seminal works by Prise et al. (2015), Winslow et al. (2015) and Witasse et al. (2017) who tracked the ICMEs through their journeys using data from several spacecraft.Considering the extremely short computation time needed by the model to propagate ICMEs, this approach is a promising candidate to forecast ICME arrival to planetary bodies and spacecraft in the whole heliosphere, with relevant application to space-mission short-term planning.

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Using MHD Simulation for Space Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting

10.21236/ada413327 ◽

2001 ◽

Author(s):

Charles Goodrich

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Mhd Simulation ◽

Space Weather Forecasting

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Space weather: the solar perspective

Living Reviews in Solar Physics ◽

10.1007/s41116-021-00030-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Manuela Temmer

Keyword(s):

Solar Wind ◽

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Interplanetary Space ◽

Three Dimensions ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Stereo Mission ◽

Interaction Regions ◽

Near Future ◽

First Time

AbstractThe Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided that enabled for the first time to study coronal structures and the evolution of activity phenomena in three dimensions. New imaging capabilities, covering the entire Sun-Earth distance range, allowed to seamlessly connect CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts measured in-situ (so called ICMEs). This vastly increased our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of interplanetary space due to solar activity and fostered the development of Space Weather forecasting models. Moreover, we are facing challenging times gathering new data from two extraordinary missions, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) and ESA’s Solar Orbiter (launched in 2020), that will in the near future provide more detailed insight into the solar wind evolution and image CMEs from view points never approached before. The current review builds upon the Living Reviews article by Schwenn from 2006, updating on the Space Weather relevant CME-flare-SEP phenomena from the solar perspective, as observed from multiple viewpoints and their concomitant solar surface signatures.

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SHORT-TERM SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING BASED ON THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD

Messenger AmSU ◽

10.22250/jasu.93.9 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 42-46

Author(s):

ANASTASIA SERGEEVNA NADTOCHY ◽

◽

DMITRIY VLADIMIROVICH FOMIN ◽

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Nuclear Physics ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Calculated Data ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Exponential Smoothing ◽

Launch Vehicles ◽

Short Term ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Exponential Smoothing Method

The paper presents information on the results of short-term space weather forecasting for the Vostochny cosmodrome based on data on the electron flux density with energies above 2 MeV received from satellites from the operator's site of the Space Weather Forecast Center of the Moscow State University Institute of Nuclear Physics. The analysis of the calculated data on the level of near-Earth radiation, as a result of the use of various extrapolation methods, showed that the method of exponential smoothing is most effective for short-term space weather forecasting. Such forecasts can be used when planning launches of launch vehicles from spaceports.

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Nanotechnology Challenges for Future Space Weather Forecasting Networks

ACS Symposium Series - Defense Applications of Nanomaterials ◽

10.1021/bk-2005-0891.ch004 ◽

2005 ◽

pp. 46-62

Author(s):

Rainer A. Dressler ◽

Gregory P. Ginet ◽

Skip Williams ◽

Brian Hunt ◽

Shouleh Nikzad ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Future Space

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Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting Driven by Solar Observations

Solar-terrestrial Magnetic Activity and Space Environment - Proceedings of the COSPAR Colloquium on Solar-Terrestrial Magnetic Activity and Space Environment (STMASE) held in the NA OC in Beijing, China September 10-12, 2001 - COSPAR Colloquia Series ◽

10.1016/s0964-2749(02)80189-5 ◽

2002 ◽

pp. 401-407 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

C.D. Fry ◽

W. Sun ◽

C. Deehr ◽

M. Dryer ◽

Z. Smith ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

Solar Observations ◽

Time Space

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Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy ◽

10.1134/s0016793217070088 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 57 (7) ◽

pp. 869-876 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

S. P. Gaidash ◽

A. V. Belov ◽

M. A. Abunina ◽

A. A. Abunin

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Space Weather Forecasting

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Numerical simulation of soliton gas within the Korteweg-de Vries type equations

Вычислительные технологии ◽

10.25743/ict.2019.24.2.005 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 52-66

Author(s):

Екатерина Геннадьевна Диденкулова ◽

Анна Витальевна Кокорина ◽

Алексей Викторович Слюняев

Keyword(s):

Numerical Scheme ◽

Initial Conditions ◽

Probability Distributions ◽

Scattering Problem ◽

Spectral Composition ◽

Computation Time ◽

Qualitative Description ◽

Statistical Characteristics ◽

De Vries ◽

Pseudo Spectral Method

Приведены детали численной схемы и способа задания начальных условий для моделирования нерегулярной динамики ансамблей солитонов в рамках уравнений типа Кортевега-де Вриза на примере модифицированного уравнения Кортевега-де Вриза с фокусирующим типом нелинейности. Дано качественное описание эволюции статистических характеристик для ансамблей солитонов одной и разных полярностей. Обсуждаются результаты тестовых экспериментов по столкновению большого числа солитонов. The details of the numerical scheme and the method of specifying the initial conditions for the simulation of the irregular dynamics of soliton ensembles within the framework of equations of the Korteweg - de Vries type are given using the example of the modified Korteweg - de Vries equation with a focusing type of nonlinearity. The numerical algorithm is based on a pseudo-spectral method with implicit integration over time and uses the Crank-Nicholson scheme for improving the stability property. The aims of the research are to determine the relationship between the spectral composition of the waves (the Fourier spectrum or the spectrum of the associated scattering problem) and their probabilistic properties, to describe transient processes and the equilibrium states. The paper gives a qualitative description of the evolution of statistical characteristics for ensembles of solitons of the same and different polarities, obtained as a result of numerical simulations; the probability distributions for wave amplitudes are also provided. The results of test experiments on the collision of a large number of solitons are discussed: the choice of optimal conditions and the manifestation of numerical artifacts caused by insufficient accuracy of the discretization. The numerical scheme used turned out to be extremely suitable for the class of the problems studied, since it ensures good accuracy in describing collisions of solitons with a short computation time.

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Benfordʼs Law Geometry

Benford's Law ◽

10.23943/princeton/9780691147611.003.0004 ◽

2015 ◽

Author(s):

Lawrence Leemis

Keyword(s):

Empirical Data ◽

Probability Distributions ◽

Benford’S Law ◽

Data Sets ◽

Normal Distributions ◽

Benford's Law ◽

Using Data

This chapter switches from the traditional analysis of Benford's law using data sets to a search for probability distributions that obey Benford's law. It begins by briefly discussing the origins of Benford's law through the independent efforts of Simon Newcomb (1835–1909) and Frank Benford, Jr. (1883–1948), both of whom made their discoveries through empirical data. Although Benford's law applies to a wide variety of data sets, none of the popular parametric distributions, such as the exponential and normal distributions, agree exactly with Benford's law. The chapter thus highlights the failures of several of these well-known probability distributions in conforming to Benford's law, considers what types of probability distributions might produce data that obey Benford's law, and looks at some of the geometry associated with these probability distributions.

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From heliophysics to space weather forecasts

Astronomy & Geophysics ◽

10.1093/astrogeo/atz178 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 60 (5) ◽

pp. 5.26-5.30

Author(s):

Richard Harrison ◽

Jackie Davies ◽

Jonny Rae

Keyword(s):

Space Weather ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Space Weather Forecasting ◽

New Space ◽

The Subject

Abstract Richard Harrison, Jackie Davies and Jonny Rae summarize progress in capitalizing on UK expertise in research and instrumentation for new space weather forecasting – the subject of an RAS Discussion Meeting in March.

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