A multi-approach skill-score procedure to optimize continental-scale ice-sheet models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria Tabone ◽  
Alexander Robinson ◽  
Jorge Alvarez-Solas ◽  
Javier Blasco ◽  
Daniel Moreno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Thermal State ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Flow Equations ◽  
Continental Scale

<p>Simulations of large-scale ice sheet models are crucial to understand the long-term evolution of an ice sheet and its response to climate forcings. However, solving the ice-flow equations and processes proper of the ice sheet at large spatial scales requires reducing the model computational complexity to a certain degree. To do so, coarse-resolution models represent several physical processes and ice characteristics through model parameterisations. Ice-sheet boundary conditions (e.g. basal sliding, surface ablation, grounded and marine basal melting) as well as unconstrained ice-flow properties (e.g. ice-flow enhancement factor) are some examples. However, choosing the best parameter values to well represent such processes is a demanding exercise. Statistical methods, from simple to advanced techniques involving Bayesian approaches, have been taken into account to evaluate the model performance. Here we optimise the performance of a new state-of-the-art hybrid ice-sheet-shelf model by applying a skill-score method based on a multi-misfits approach. A large ensemble of paleo-to-present transient simulations of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is produced through the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique. Results are then evaluated against a variety of information, comprising the present-day state of the ice sheet (e.g. ice thickness, ice velocity, basal thermal state) as well as available paleo reconstructions (e.g. glacial maximum extent, past elevation at the ice core sites). Results are then assembled to generate a single skill-score value based on a gaussian approach. The procedure is applied to various model parameters to evaluate the best choice of values associated with their parameterisations. </p>

scholarly journals Basal Sliding Relations Deduced from Ice-Sheet Data

1984 ◽  
Vol 30 (105) ◽  
pp. 131-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. W. Morland ◽  
G. D. Smith ◽  
G. S. Boulton
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Condition ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Tangential Velocity ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Overburden Pressure ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Surface Mass

AbstractThe sliding law is defined as a basal boundary condition for the large-scale bulk ice flow, relating the tangential tractionτb, overburden pressurepb, and tangential velocityubon a smoothed-out mean bed contour. This effective bed is a lower boundary viewed on the scale of the bulk ice flow and is not the physical ice/rock or sediment interface. The sliding relation reflects on the same scale the complex motion taking place in the neighbourhood of the physical interface. The isothermal steady-state ice-sheet analysis of Morland and Johnson (1980, 1982) is applied to known surface profiles from the Greenland ice sheet and Devon Island ice cap, with their corresponding mass-balance distributions, to determineτb,pb, andubfor each case. These basal estimates are used in turn to construct, using least-squares correlation, polynomial representations for an overburden dependenceλ(pb) in the adopted form of sliding lawτb═λ(pb)ub1/mwithm ≥1.The two different data sets determine functionsλ(pb) of very different magnitudes, reflecting very different basal conditions. A universal sliding law must therefore contain more general dependence on basal conditions, but the two relations determined appear to describe the two extremes. Hence use of both relations in turn to determine profiles compatible with given mass-balance distributions can be expected to yield extremes of the possible profiles, and further to show the sensitivity of profile form to variation of the sliding relation. The theory is designed as a basis for reconstruction of former ice sheets and their dynamics which are related to the two fundamental determinants of surface mass balance and basal boundary condition.

scholarly journals Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1561-1576 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
H. Seddik ◽  
M. Nodet ◽  
G. Durand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
New Generation

Abstract. Over the last two decades, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an increasing rate, enhancing its contribution to sea-level rise (SLR). The recent increases in ice loss appear to be due to changes in both the surface mass balance of the ice sheet and ice discharge (ice flux to the ocean). Rapid ice flow directly affects the discharge, but also alters ice-sheet geometry and so affects climate and surface mass balance. Present-day ice-sheet models only represent rapid ice flow in an approximate fashion and, as a consequence, have never explicitly addressed the role of ice discharge on the total GrIS mass balance, especially at the scale of individual outlet glaciers. Here, we present a new-generation prognostic ice-sheet model which reproduces the current patterns of rapid ice flow. This requires three essential developments: the complete solution of the full system of equations governing ice deformation; a variable resolution unstructured mesh to resolve outlet glaciers and the use of inverse methods to better constrain poorly known parameters using observations. The modelled ice discharge is in good agreement with observations on the continental scale and for individual outlets. From this initial state, we investigate possible bounds for the next century ice-sheet mass loss. We run sensitivity experiments of the GrIS dynamical response to perturbations in climate and basal lubrication, assuming a fixed position of the marine termini. We find that increasing ablation tends to reduce outflow and thus decreases the ice-sheet imbalance. In our experiments, the GrIS initial mass (im)balance is preserved throughout the whole century in the absence of reinforced forcing, allowing us to estimate a lower bound of 75 mm for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100. In one experiment, we show that the current increase in the rate of ice loss can be reproduced and maintained throughout the whole century. However, this requires a very unlikely perturbation of basal lubrication. From this result we are able to estimate an upper bound of 140 mm from dynamics only for the GrIS contribution to SLR by 2100.

scholarly journals The treatment of meltwater retention in mass-balance parameterizations of the Greenland ice sheet

2000 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
pp. 133-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ives Janssens ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Retention Model ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Meltwater Runoff ◽  
Regional Basis

AbstractRetention of meltwater runoff by percolation and/or refreezing in the snowpack cannot be neglected when studying the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. In this paper, we make a detailed comparison of several treatments proposed in the literature to account for this process in large-scale mass-balance parameterizations. The melt on the Greenland ice sheet is calculated with a revised degree-day model using updated datasets of surface elevation and precipitation rate on a 5 km grid. Crucial model parameters are recalibrated by comparing mass-balance characteristics with available observations on a regional basis. We discuss the role of meltwater retention in the light of the overall mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and its sensitivity to climatic change, and display patterns of effective-retention fractions for the various methods. As a main conclusion it appears that overall results are quite similar for the various models, but that meltwater retention has a large spatial variation not described by the simple treatments. Using the most comprehensive retention model, the sensitivity of the runoff is found to be +0.35 mm ˚C–1 of sea-level change per year. We also present a new map of the different zones (facies) that characterize the accumulation area of the Greenland ice sheet, which is useful for interpreting field data and calibrating satellite observations.

scholarly journals Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 2789-2826 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
H. Seddik ◽  
M. Nodet ◽  
G. Durand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
New Generation

Abstract. Over the last two decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an increasing rate, enhancing its contribution to sea-level rise. The recent increases in ice loss appear to be due to changes in both the surface mass balance of the ice sheet and ice discharge (ice flux to the ocean). Rapid ice flow directly affects the discharge, but also alters ice-sheet geometry and so affects climate and surface mass balance. The most usual ice-sheet models only represent rapid ice flow in an approximate fashion and, as a consequence, have never explicitly addressed the role of ice discharge on the total GrIS mass balance, especially at the scale of individual outlet glaciers. Here, we present a new-generation prognostic ice-sheet model which reproduces the current patterns of rapid ice flow. This requires three essential developments: the complete solution of the full system of equations governing ice deformation; an unstructured mesh to usefully resolve outlet glaciers and the use of inverse methods to better constrain poorly known parameters using observations. The modelled ice discharge is in good agreement with observations on the continental scale and for individual outlets. By conducting perturbation experiments, we investigate how current ice loss will endure over the next century. Although we find that increasing ablation tends to reduce outflow and on its own has a stabilising effect, if destabilisation processes maintain themselves over time, current increases in the rate of ice loss are likely to continue.

scholarly journals Upstream flow effects revealed in the EastGRIP ice-core using a Monte Carlo inversion of a 2D ice-flow model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara Annina Gerber ◽  
Christine Hvidberg ◽  
Aslak Grinsted ◽  
Daniela Jansen ◽  
Steven Franke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
East Greenland ◽  
Ice Stream ◽  
Flow Effects ◽  
Upstream Flow

<p>The North East Greenland ice-stream (NEGIS) is the largest active ice-stream on the Greenland ice-sheet and is a crucial contributor to the ice-sheet mass balance. To investigate the ice-stream dynamics and to gain information about the past climate, a deep ice-core is drilled in the upstream part of the NEGIS, termed the East Greenland ice-core project (EastGRIP). Upstream flow effects introduce non-climatic bias in ice-cores and are particularly strong at EastGRIP due to high ice-flow velocities and the location in an ice-stream on the eastern flank of the Greenland ice-sheet. Understanding and ultimately correcting for such effects requires information on the source area and the local atmospheric conditions at the time of ice deposition. We use a two-dimensional Dansgaard-Johnsen model to simulate ice-flow along three approximated flow-lines between the summit of the ice-sheet and EastGRIP. Model parameters are determined using a Monte Carlo inversion by minimizing the misfit between modeled isochrones and isochrones observed in radio-echo-sounding images. We calculate backward-in-time particle trajectories to determine the source area of ice found in the EastGRIP core today and present estimates of surface elevation and past accumulation-rates at the deposition site. The thinning function and accumulated strain obtained from the modeled velocity field provide useful information on the deformation history in the EastGRIP ice. Our results indicate that increased accumulation in the upstream area is predominantly responsible for the constant annual layer thickness observed in the upper part of the ice column at EastGRIP. Inverted model parameters suggest that the imprint of basal melting and sliding is present in large parts along the flow profiles and that most internal ice deformation happens close to the bedrock. The results of this study can act as a basis for applying upstream corrections to a variety of ice-core measurements, and the model parameters can be useful constraints for more sophisticated modeling approaches in the future. </p>

scholarly journals Basal Sliding Relations Deduced from Ice-Sheet Data

1984 ◽  
Vol 30 (105) ◽  
pp. 131-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. W. Morland ◽  
G. D. Smith ◽  
G. S. Boulton
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Condition ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Tangential Velocity ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Overburden Pressure ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Surface Mass

AbstractThe sliding law is defined as a basal boundary condition for the large-scale bulk ice flow, relating the tangential traction τb, overburden pressure pb, and tangential velocity ub on a smoothed-out mean bed contour. This effective bed is a lower boundary viewed on the scale of the bulk ice flow and is not the physical ice/rock or sediment interface. The sliding relation reflects on the same scale the complex motion taking place in the neighbourhood of the physical interface. The isothermal steady-state ice-sheet analysis of Morland and Johnson (1980, 1982) is applied to known surface profiles from the Greenland ice sheet and Devon Island ice cap, with their corresponding mass-balance distributions, to determine τb, pb, and ub for each case. These basal estimates are used in turn to construct, using least-squares correlation, polynomial representations for an overburden dependence λ(pb) in the adopted form of sliding law τb ═ λ(pb)ub1/m with m ≥ 1.The two different data sets determine functions λ(pb) of very different magnitudes, reflecting very different basal conditions. A universal sliding law must therefore contain more general dependence on basal conditions, but the two relations determined appear to describe the two extremes. Hence use of both relations in turn to determine profiles compatible with given mass-balance distributions can be expected to yield extremes of the possible profiles, and further to show the sensitivity of profile form to variation of the sliding relation. The theory is designed as a basis for reconstruction of former ice sheets and their dynamics which are related to the two fundamental determinants of surface mass balance and basal boundary condition.

The effect of geothermal heat flux on the deglacial evolution of the Greenland ice sheet

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parviz Ajourlou ◽  
François PH Lapointe ◽  
Glenn A Milne ◽  
Yasmina Martos
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Condition ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
Thermal State ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Sampling Procedure ◽  
Geophysical Research ◽  
Geothermal Heat ◽  
Input Field ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates

<p>Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is known to be an important control on the basal thermal state of an ice sheet which, in turn, is a key factor in governing how the ice sheet will evolve in response to a given climate forcing. In recent years, several studies have estimated GHF beneath the Greenland ice sheet using different approaches (e.g. Rezvanbehbahani et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2017; Martos et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2018; Greve, Polar Data Journal, 2019). Comparing these different estimates indicates poor agreement and thus large uncertainty in our knowledge of this important boundary condition for modelling the ice sheet. The primary aim of this study is to quantify the influence of this uncertainty on modelling the past evolution of the ice sheet with a focus on the most recent deglaciation. We build on past work that considered three GHF models (Rogozhina et al., 2011) by considering over 100 different realizations of this input field. We use the uncertainty estimates from Martos et al. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2018) to generate GHF realisations via a statistical sampling procedure. A sensitivity analysis using these realisations and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM, Bueler and Brown, Journal of Geophysical Research, 2009) indicates that uncertainty in GHF has a dramatic impact on both the volume and spatial distribution of ice since the last glacial maximum, indicating that more precise constraints on this boundary condition are required to improve our understanding of past ice sheet evolution and, consequently, reduce uncertainty in future projections.</p>

scholarly journals Melting and freezing under Antarctic ice shelves from a combination of ice-sheet modelling and observations

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (240) ◽  
pp. 731-744 ◽  
Author(s):  
JORGE BERNALES ◽  
IRINA ROGOZHINA ◽  
MAIK THOMAS
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Basal Melting ◽  
The Antarctic

ABSTRACTIce-shelf basal melting is the largest contributor to the negative mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. However, current implementations of ice/ocean interactions in ice-sheet models disagree with the distribution of sub-shelf melt and freezing rates revealed by recent observational studies. Here we present a novel combination of a continental-scale ice flow model and a calibration technique to derive the spatial distribution of basal melting and freezing rates for the whole Antarctic ice-shelf system. The modelled ice-sheet equilibrium state is evaluated against topographic and velocity observations. Our high-resolution (10-km spacing) simulation predicts an equilibrium ice-shelf basal mass balance of −1648.7 Gt a−1 that increases to −1917.0 Gt a−1 when the observed ice-shelf thinning rates are taken into account. Our estimates reproduce the complexity of the basal mass balance of Antarctic ice shelves, providing a reference for parameterisations of sub-shelf ocean/ice interactions in continental ice-sheet models. We perform a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of variations in the model set-up, showing that the retrieved estimates of basal melting and freezing rates are largely insensitive to changes in the internal model parameters, but respond strongly to a reduction of model resolution and the uncertainty in the input datasets.

scholarly journals Seasonal mass variations show timing and magnitude of meltwater storage in the Greenland Ice Sheet

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2981-2999 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangjun Ran ◽  
Miren Vizcaino ◽  
Pavel Ditmar ◽  
Michiel R. van den Broeke ◽  
Twila Moon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
High Accumulation ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Meltwater Runoff

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently losing ice mass. In order to accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry mission Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), surface mass balance (SMB) output of the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model v. 2 (RACMO2), and ice discharge estimates to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal and spatial scales. We find that the mean rate of mass variations in Greenland observed by GRACE was between −277 and −269 Gt yr−1 in 2003–2012. This estimate is consistent with the sum (i.e., -304±126 Gt yr−1) of individual contributions – surface mass balance (SMB, 216±122 Gt yr−1) and ice discharge (520±31 Gt yr−1) – and with previous studies. We further identify a seasonal mass anomaly throughout the GRACE record that peaks in July at 80–120 Gt and which we interpret to be due to a combination of englacial and subglacial water storage generated by summer surface melting. The robustness of this estimate is demonstrated by using both different GRACE-based solutions and different meltwater runoff estimates (namely, RACMO2.3, SNOWPACK, and MAR3.9). Meltwater storage in the ice sheet occurs primarily due to storage in the high-accumulation regions of the southeast and northwest parts of Greenland. Analysis of seasonal variations in outlet glacier discharge shows that the contribution of ice discharge to the observed signal is minor (at the level of only a few gigatonnes) and does not explain the seasonal differences between the total mass and SMB signals. With the improved quantification of meltwater storage at the seasonal scale, we highlight its importance for understanding glacio-hydrological processes and their contributions to the ice sheet mass variability.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet Projections to Model Formulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 59 (216) ◽  
pp. 733-749 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Goelzer ◽  
P. Huybrechts ◽  
J.J. Fürst ◽  
F.M. Nick ◽  
M.L. Andersen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Glacier Dynamics

AbstractPhysically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6–18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14–31 % higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4.

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