Creating Impact through COST Action networks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Karaca
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Data Storage ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Uv Index ◽  
Cost Action ◽  
Horizon 2020 ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Action Networks

<p>The European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) has a very important role in fostering the establishment of scientific excellence in many fields such as: Geoscience, Planetary and Environment. Over the years, COST Actions have contributed to European competitiveness through their many contributions to standardisation bodies, the small to medium enterprises originating from COST networks and the transfer of results to the European industry.</p><p>A series of COST Actions in the field of Meteorology developed global data transfer standards on the basis of infra-networks in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization advantaging the competitiveness of the industrial participation. Such achievements include harmonisation of UV-index, developing operational programmes, services, networks and phenological responses to climate on a Pan-European Scale and were recognised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is another good example as a result of an Action through its evolution to become an independent intergovernmental organisation with its own structure and headquarters supported by 34 states.</p><p>The key findings of COST networks not only contribute to the atmospheric drivers on the impacts of the global change but also increase the understanding of the function of marine ecosystems and its response to climate change. A number of Actions in the field of marine science have developed observing system to integrate the dynamic response of sea-level variations to combine effects of various natural drivers into multi-criteria tools by bringing together oceanographers and meteorologists. These developments urged for an integrated implementation of technology in sea-level monitoring, and for further international agreements on data storage and exchange.</p><p>A wide range of disciplines, evaluating the complex interactions between the oceans and the global change, geosciences, natural resources management, environmental monitoring, biogeochemical cycles,  ecology, hydrology, natural disasters, water cycle have well undertaken through COST Action networks. The results were published in high impact journals, guidelines were represented in position papers leading to new research projects on a global scale.  Participation in COST leads to significant results and follow-up in terms of number of proposals submitted for collaborative research in Horizon 2020, with a striking success rate of 33% (the Horizon 2020 average is at 12.2%). By enabling researchers and innovators from all career levels to network, COST connects complementary funding schemes, facilitating the entry of promising young talents into these schemes.</p><p>COST is committed to reinforcing its role as the leading networking instrument in the European Research Area (ERA), while creating even higher tangible impact on society.</p>

scholarly journals Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 697-708
Author(s):  
Andreas Geiges ◽  
Alexander Nauels ◽  
Paola Yanguas Parra ◽  
Marina Andrijevic ◽  
William Hare ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. Current global mitigation ambition up to 2030 under the Paris Agreement, reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), is insufficient to achieve the agreement's 1.5 ∘C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has assessed a wide range of scenarios that achieve the 1.5 ∘C limit. Those pathways are characterised by a substantial increase in near-term action and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what is implied by current NDCs. Here we assess the outcomes of different scenarios of NDC updating that fall short of achieving this 1.5 ∘C benchmark. We find that incremental improvements in reduction targets, even if achieved globally, are insufficient to align collective ambition with the goals of the Paris Agreement. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those median scenarios for extreme temperature, long-term sea-level rise and economic damages for the most vulnerable countries. Under the assumption of maintaining ambition as reflected in current NDCs up to 2100 and beyond, we project a reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) in tropical countries of around 60 % compared to a no-climate-change scenario and median long-term sea-level rise of close to 2 m in 2300. About half of these impacts can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5 ∘C or below. Scenarios of more incremental NDC improvements do not lead to comparable reductions in climate impacts. An increase in aggregated NDC ambition of big emitters by 33 % in 2030 does not reduce presented climate impacts by more than about half compared to limiting warming to 1.5 ∘C. Our results underscore that a transformational increase in 2030 ambition is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Geiges ◽  
Paola Yanguas Parra ◽  
Marina Andrijevic ◽  
William Hare ◽  
Alexander Nauels ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. Current global mitigation ambition as under the Paris Agreement as reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the Agreement's 1.5 °C long term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change on Global Warming of 1.5 °C has assessed a wide range of scenarios that achieve the 1.5 °C limit. Those pathways are characterized by a substantial increase in near-term action and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what is implied by current NDCs. Here we assess the outcomes of different scenarios of NDC updating that fall short of achieving this 1.5 °C benchmark. We find that incremental improvements in reduction targets even if achieved globally, are insufficient to align collective ambition with the goals of the Paris Agreement. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios including for extreme temperature, long-term sea level rise and economic damages for the most vulnerable countries. Under the assumption of maintaining ambition as reflected in current NDCs up to 2100 and beyond, we project a reduction in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in tropical countries of about 50–60 % compared to a no-climate change scenario and long-term sea-level rise of close to 2 m in 2300. About half of these impacts can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5 °C, or below. Scenarios of more incremental NDC improvements do not lead to comparable reductions in climate impacts. An increase in 2030 of the aggregated NDC ambition of big emitters by 33 % does not deliver more than about half the potential reduction in climate impacts compared to limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Our results underscore that a transformational increase in 2030 ambition is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4537-4562 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Isabel M. D. Rosa ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Impacts

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

scholarly journals A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Isabel M. D. Rosa ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Impacts

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature’s contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

scholarly journals Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice-sheet

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan M. Gregory ◽  
Steven E. George ◽  
Robin S. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Perturbation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Recent Climate

Abstract. We have studied the evolution of the Greenland ice-sheet under a range of constant climates typical of those projected for the end of the present century, using a dynamical ice-sheet model (Glimmer) coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model (FAMOUS-ice AGCM). The ice-sheet surface mass balance (SMB) is simulated by the AGCM, including its dependence on altitude within AGCM gridboxes. Over millennia under a warmer climate, the ice-sheet reaches a new steady state, whose mass is correlated with the initial perturbation in SMB, and hence with the magnitude of global climate change imposed. For the largest global warming considered (about +5 K), the contribution to global-mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) is initially 2.7 mm yr−1, and the ice-sheet is eventually practically eliminated (giving over 7 m of GMSLR). For all RCP8.5 climates, final GMSLR exceeds 4 m. If recent climate were maintained, GMSLR would reach 1.5–2.5 m. Contrary to expectation from earlier work, we find no evidence for a threshold warming that divides scenarios in which the ice-sheet suffers little reduction from those which it is mostly lost. This is because the dominant effect is reduction of area, not reduction of surface altitude, and the geographical variation of SMB must be taken into account. The final steady state is achieved by withdrawal from the coast in some places, and a tendency for increasing SMB due to enhancement of cloudiness and snowfall over the remaining ice-sheet, through the effects of topographic change on atmospheric circulation. If late twentieth-century climate is restored, the ice-sheet will not regrow to its present extent, owing to such effects, once its mass has fallen below a threshold of about 4 m of sea-level equivalent. In that case, about 2 m of GMSLR would become irreversible. In order to avoid this outcome, anthropogenic climate change must be reversed before the ice-sheet has declined to the threshold mass, which would be reached in about 600 years at the highest rate of mass-loss within the likely range of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

scholarly journals Adaptive Capacity Mapping of Semarang Offshore Territory by the Increasing of Water Level and Climate Change

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Ifan Ridlo Suhelm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Educational Background ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Village

Tidal inundation, flood and land subsidence are the problems faced by Semarang city related to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted the increase of sea level rise 18-59 cm during 1990-2100 while the temperature increase 0,6°C to 4°C during the same period. The Semarang coastal city was highly vulnerable to sea level rise and it increased with two factors, topography and land subsidence. The purpose of this study was to map the adaptive capacity of coastal areas in the face of the threat of disasters caused by climate change. The parameters used are Network Number, Employee based educational background, Source Main Livelihoods, Health Facilities, and Infrastructure Road. Adaptive capacity of regions classified into 3 (three) classes, namely low, medium and high. The results of the study showed that most of the coastal area of Semarang have adaptive capacities ranging from low to moderate, while the village with low capacity totaling 58 villages (58.62%) of the total coastal district in the city of Semarang.

Introduction: Apprehending Climate Change

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
James R. Fleming
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Human Dimensions ◽  
Global Environment ◽  
Public Officials ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Science And Policy ◽  
Government Documents

Apprehensions have been multiplying rapidly that we are approaching a crisis in our relationship with nature, one that could have potentially catastrophic results for the sustainability of civilization and even the habitability of the planet. Much of the concern is rightfully focused on changes in the atmosphere caused by human activities. Only a century after the discovery of the stratosphere, only five decades after the invention of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and only two decades after atmospheric chemists warned of the destructive nature of chlorine and other compounds, we fear that ozone in the stratosphere is being damaged by human activity. Only a century after the first models of the carbon cycle were developed, only three decades after regular CO2 measurements began at Mauna Loa Observatory, and only two decades after climate modelers first doubled the CO2 in a computerized atmosphere, we fear that the Earth may experience a sudden and possibly catastrophic warming caused by industrial pollution. These and other environmental problems were brought to our attention mainly by scientists and engineers, but the problems belong to us all. Recently, policy-oriented social scientists, public officials, and diplomats have turned their attention to the complex human dimensions of these issues. New interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary collaborations have arisen between scientists and policymakers to examine the extremely challenging issues raised by global change. There has been a rising tide of literature—scholarly works, new journals, textbooks, government documents, treaties, popular accounts—some quite innovative, others derivative and somewhat repetitious. This has resulted in growing public awareness of environmental issues, new understanding of global change science and policy, widespread concerns over environmental risks, and recently formulated plans to intervene in the global environment through various forms of social and behavioral engineering, and possibly geoengineering. Global change is now at the center of an international agenda to understand, predict, protect, and possibly control the global environment. The changing nature of global change—the historical dimension—has not received adequate attention. Most writing addresses current issues in either science or policy; much of it draws on a few authoritative scientific statements such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); almost none of it is informed by historical sensibility.

scholarly journals Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (10) ◽  
pp. 2597-2602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Mengel ◽  
Anders Levermann ◽  
Katja Frieler ◽  
Alexander Robinson ◽  
Ben Marzeion ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Equilibrium Response ◽  
Semiempirical Models

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

scholarly journals COMBINING COASTAL DESIGN-FLOOD ELEVATIONS AND SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
James Houston
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Design Consideration ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Flood Level ◽  
Rising Sea Level ◽  
And Sea Level

Design-flood elevations with associated exceedance probabilities are often determined for coastal projects. Rising sea level introduces another design consideration that needs to be combined with the design-flood level. However, most sea level projections do not have exceedance probabilities that can be used in conjunction with the design flood to obtain total flood elevations with exceedance probabilities. This paper shows how to combine design-flood elevations with sea level rise projections that have exceedance probabilities, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (Bindoff et al 2007) or Houston (2012a), to obtain total elevations at desired exceedance probabilities over particular intervals.

scholarly journals Sea level rise scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City in the context of the climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 184-191
Author(s):  
Tuan Ngoc Le ◽  
Thinh Nam Ngo ◽  
Phung Ky Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Water Level Data ◽  
Local Water ◽  
Important Basis

This work aimed to develope sea level rise (SLR) scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) to 2100, corresponding to the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 and the approach mentioned in the AR5 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) through SIMCLIM software, and the local water level data (updated to 2015). The results showed that the SLR in the coastal area of HCMC increased gradually over the years as well as the increase in greenhouse gas scenarios. In the period of 2025-2030, SLR would increase relatively equally among RCP scenarios. SLR in 2030 would increase about 12cm as compared to sea level in the period of 1986-2005 in all RCP scenarios. By 2050, the average SLR for the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 would be 21 cm, 21 cm, 22 cm, and 25 cm, respectively. The corresponding figures for 2100 would bee 43 cm, 52 cm, 54 cm, and 72 cm, respectively. The research results provide an important basis for calculations and assessments of impact and vulnerability due to the climate change to socio-economic development in HCMC.

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