scholarly journals A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author(s):  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Isabel M. D. Rosa ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
...  

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature’s contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4537-4562 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Isabel M. D. Rosa ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
...  

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Isabel M.D. Rosa ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
...  

AbstractTo support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature’s contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrique M. Pereira ◽  
Isabel M.D. Rosa ◽  
Inês S. Martins ◽  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
...  

AbstractDespite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.


2005 ◽  
Vol 360 (1454) ◽  
pp. 221-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Balmford ◽  
Peter Crane ◽  
Andy Dobson ◽  
Rhys E Green ◽  
Georgina M Mace

At the 2002 Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development, 190 countries endorsed a commitment to achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national levels. A wide range of approaches is available to the monitoring of progress towards this objective. The strengths and weaknesses of many of these approaches are considered, with special attention being given to the proposed and existing indicators described in the other papers in this issue. Recommendations are made about the development of indicators. Most existing and proposed indicators use data collected for other purposes, which may be unrepresentative. In the short term, much remains to be done in expanding the databases and improving the statistical techniques that underpin these indicators to minimize potential biases. In the longer term, indicators based on unrepresentative data should be replaced with equivalents based on carefully designed sampling programmes. Many proposed and existing indicators do not connect clearly with human welfare and they are unlikely to engage the interest of governments, businesses and the public until they do so. The extent to which the indicators already proposed by parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity are sufficient is explored by reference to the advice an imaginary scientific consultant from another planet might give. This exercise reveals that the range of taxa and biomes covered by existing indicators is incomplete compared with the knowledge we need to protect our interests. More fundamentally, our understanding of the mechanisms linking together the status of biodiversity, Earth system processes, human decisions and actions, and ecosystem services impacting human welfare is still too crude to allow us to infer reliably that actions taken to conserve biodiversity and protect ecosystem services are well chosen and effectively implemented. The involvement of social and Earth system scientists, as well as biologists, in collaborative research programmes to build and parameterize models of the Earth system to elucidate these mechanisms is a high priority.


Oryx ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishana Thapa ◽  
Stuart H. M. Butchart ◽  
Hum Gurung ◽  
Alison J. Stattersfield ◽  
David H. L. Thomas ◽  
...  

AbstractPolicy-makers are paying increasing attention to ecosystem services, given improved understanding that they underpin human well-being, and following their integration within the Aichi Targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Decision-makers need information on trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services but tools for assessing the latter are often expensive, technically demanding and ignore the local context. In this study we used a simple, replicable participatory assessment approach to gather information on ecosystem services at important sites for biodiversity conservation in Nepal, to feed into local and national decision-making. Through engaging knowledgeable stakeholders we assessed the services delivered by Nepal's 27 Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas, the pressures affecting services through impacts on land cover and land use, and the consequences of these for people. We found that these sites provide ecosystem services to beneficiaries at a range of scales but under current pressures the balance of services will change, with local communities incurring the greatest costs. The approach provided valuable information on the trade-offs between ecosystem services and between different people, developed the capacity of civil society to engage in decision-making at the local and national level, and provided digestible information for Nepal's government. We recommend this approach in other countries where there is a lack of information on the likely impacts of land-use change on ecosystem services and people.


2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (1Supl) ◽  
pp. 305-310
Author(s):  
Alejandro Chaparro-Giraldo

<p>La aplicación de las definiciones sobre acceso a recursos genéticos (ARG) contenidas en diversas normas legislativas nacionales o comunitarias, pueden afectar la investigación científica (no-comercial y comercial). Se definen dos momentos, entre 1995 y 2013 con la implementación de la decisión 391 de 1996, resultado de la aplicación del Convenio sobre la Biodiversidad Biológica (CDB) de 1992, y a partir de 2013 con decretos que establecen excepciones al ARG y resoluciones del Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible que especifican las actividades de ARG. La visión es la de un biotecnólogo, que se concentrará en los elementos técnico-científicos de las normas. En la primera fase no se plantearon excepciones, cualquier investigación que utilizará recursos genéticos y usará herramientas convencionales o moleculares, precisaba de contrato de ARG. Los científicos ignoraron la norma, que trajo como consecuencia la ilegalidad para sus actividades, pero no tuvo efectos prácticos para la mayoría, exceptuando a la Universidad Nacional de Colombia que recibió una sanción administrativa. En la segunda fase se excluye la investigación científica no comercial en cuatro áreas (ecología, biogeografía, sistemática y evolución), y se circunscriben las actividades de ARG a herramientas moleculares. Se espera que estas precisiones resuelvan la ilegalidad de una amplia gama de actividades de la investigación científica, pero se mantiene el peso de los procesos sobre la investigación científica con fines comerciales.<br /><br />Abstract </p><p>The application of the definitions on access to genetic resources (AGR) contained in national or Community legislation may affect the<br />scientific research (non-commercial and commercial). Two moments are defined, between 1995 and 2013 with the implementation<br />of Decision 391 of 1996, resulting from the application of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in 1992, and from 2013<br />to today, with the decrees derogating from the ARG and resolutions of the Ministry Environment and Sustainable Development<br />ARG that specified activities. The vision is that of a biotechnologist, which will focus on technical and scientific elements. In the<br />first phase no exceptions are raised, any research that uses genetic resources and use conventional or molecular tools needed ARG<br />contract. Scientists ignored the rule, which resulted in illegal to operations, but had no practical effect for most, except the National<br />University of Colombia received an administrative penalty. In the second phase the non-commercial scientific research in four areas<br />(ecology, biogeography, systematics and evolution) is excluded, and activities of ARG to molecular tools are limited. These details<br />are expected to solve the illegality of a wide range of scientific research activities, but the weight of the processes of scientific research for commercial purposes is maintained.</p>


Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Thellmann ◽  
Reza Golbon ◽  
Marc Cotter ◽  
Georg Cadisch ◽  
Folkard Asch

Land use and climate change exert pressure on ecosystems and threaten the sustainable supply of ecosystem services (ESS). In Southeast-Asia, the shift from swidden farming to permanent cash crop systems has led to a wide range of impacts on ESS. Our study area, the Nabanhe Reserve in Yunnan province (PR China), saw the loss of extensive forest areas and the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Müll. Arg.) plantations. In this study, we model water yield and sediment export for a rubber-dominated watershed under multiple scenarios of land use and climate change in order to assess how both drivers influence the supply of these ESS. For this we use three stakeholder-validated land use scenarios, varying in their degree of rubber expansion and land management rules. As projected climate change varies remarkably between different climate models, we combined the land use scenarios with datasets of temperature and precipitation changes, derived from nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in order to model water yield and sediment export with InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs). Simulation results show that the effect of land use and land management decisions on water yield in Nabanhe Reserve are relatively minor (4% difference in water yield between land use scenarios), when compared to the effects that future climate change will exert on water yield (up to 15% increase or 13% decrease in water yield compared to the baseline climate). Changes in sediment export were more sensitive to land use change (15% increase or 64% decrease) in comparison to the effects of climate change (up to 10% increase). We conclude that in the future, particularly dry years may have a more pronounced effect on the water balance as the higher potential evapotranspiration increases the probability for periods of water scarcity, especially in the dry season. The method we applied can easily be transferred to regions facing comparable land use situations, as InVEST and the IPCC data are freely available.


2015 ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
Ibolya Csíder

Since the Convention on Biological Diversity a lot of papers have been published how to measure and value biodiversity. In the last decades publications on agro-ecosystems become more frequent and play a significant role in the provision of ecosystem services. There is a uniform definition for biodiversity in general, however, in terms of agro-ecosystems and their services (including biodiversity) many weaknesses can be identified. The objective of this paper is to explore some of these problems with special regard to different definitions and terms and to the farmland ecosystem services. One solution could be to adopt a more complex system which has some ecological and environmental components (air, water and soil pollution) and also takes in to consideration the efficiency of agricultural production.


One Ecosystem ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Vrebos ◽  
Jan Staes ◽  
Steven Broekx ◽  
Leo de Nocker ◽  
Karen Gabriels ◽  
...  

Since the early 2000s, there have been substantial efforts to transform the concept of ecosystem services into practice. Spatial assessment tools are being developed to evaluate the impact of spatial planning on a wide range of ecosystem services. However, the actual implementation in decision-making remains limited. To improve implementation, tools that are tailored to local conditions can provide accurate, meaningful information. Instead of a generic and widely-applicable tool, we developed a regional, spatially-explicit tool (ECOPLAN-SE) to analyse the impact of changes in land use on the delivery of 18 ecosystem services in Flanders (Belgium). The tool incorporates ecosystem services relevant to policy-makers and managers and makes use of detailed local data and knowledge. By providing an easy-to-use tool, including the required spatial geodatasets, time investment and the learning curve remain limited for the user. With this tool, constraints to implement ecosystem service assessments in local decision-making are drastically reduced. We believe that region-specific decision support systems, like ECOPLAN-SE, are indispensable intermediates between the conceptual ecosystem service frameworks and the practical implementation in planning processes.


Author(s):  
Oswald J. Schmitz

This chapter reflects on the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Drawing connections between ecosystem functions and ecosystem services can make the concept of sustainability less nebulous. It offers tangible ways to translate science into practice by revealing the intricacies of nature and the many threads that link humans to nature through such intricacies. Establishing such connections illustrates why it is important to ensure that ecosystem functions endure. The chapter shows how the New Ecology is helping us appreciate how and why the complex ways that species that have evolved and forged interdependencies with each other matter to sustainability. It argues that maintaining diversity within ecosystems ensures that a wide range of options is available for adapting to environmental change.


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