Numerical simulation of earthquake and tsunami May 9, 1877 at the Chile coast

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raissa Mazova ◽  
Leopold Lobkovsky ◽  
Jorge Van Den Bosch F ◽  
Natalya Baranova ◽  
Gustavo Oses A
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Negative Wave ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Chilean Coast ◽  
Distribution Of The Maximum ◽  
Wave Heights

<p>Numerical modeling of the generation and propagation of tsunami waves during the earthquake of 1877 in Chile was performed. The possible dynamics of the seismic source are estimated, the wave characteristics of the process and the distribution of the maximum tsunami wave heights along the coast of the considered water area are obtained. On May 9, 1877, at 9:16 pm local time, an earthquake and subsequent tsunami were recorded in the area of ​​Iquique. The epicenter of the earthquake was in the Pacific Ocean near the city of Iquique. The calculated magnitude of the earthquake was estimated at 8.5-8.8. The highest intensity was noted between the cities of Arica, Iquique and Antofagasta, Tokopiglia, Gatiko and Kobikha were also severely affected. All these cities were destroyed. Earthquake victims were reported from Pisco to Antofagasta. In the area of ​​the cities of Iquique, Gatico and Kobiha, five minutes after the earthquake, tsunami waves arrived with a first wave height of 10 to 15 meters. The second wave she came in 15 minutes after the main shock, she was more powerful - her height was from 20 to 23 meters. It should be noted that in various documentary sources the data for a number of points on the Chilean coast are contradictory. So, for example, in Arica the spread of wave heights from 9 to 20m, in Iquique 6-9m, in Kobikha 9-12m, in Mejilones a spread from 12 to 21m. Given the very diverse information on the tsunami wave height on the coast and based on the conclusions of the authors of [1] on the similarity of the continental slope of the deep sea trench near Arica city and Kuril-Kamchatka area, for which the earthquake key model was successfully applied in [2] [3], we suggested that the 1877 earthquake had complex dynamics. For the numerical implementation of this process, it was decided to use the key model of the earthquake, which allows breaking the earthquake source into a large number of block keys, taking into account aftershock activity and bathymetry of the earthquake source area. In this process, the displacement of each block in the source of the earthquake occurs by a different amount at different times. When numerically simulating an earthquake and generating tsunami waves, the key model of the earthquake source allows you to obtain a complex distribution of the maximum wave heights on the shore, for a given dynamics of blocks in the earthquake source.</p><p> </p><p>[1] <strong>Mazova R.Kh,</strong>  <strong>Ramirez J.F</strong>. Tsunami waves with an initial negative wave on the Chilean coast // Natural Hazards 20 (1999) 83-92. </p><p>[2] <strong>Lobkovsky, L. I., Mazova, R. Kh, Kataeva, L Yu., & Baranov, B.V</strong>.  Generation and propagation of catastrophic tsunami in the basin of Sea of Okhotsk. Possible scenarios, // Doklady, 410, 528–531 (2006).</p><p>[3] <strong>Lobkovsky L.I., Baranov BV.</strong> Keyboard model of strong earthquakes in island arcs and active continental margins // Doklady of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR. V. 275. № 4. P. 843-847. 1984.</p>

scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis For Tuzla Test Site Using Monte Carlo Simulations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Basak Bayraktar ◽  
Ceren Ozer Sozdinler
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalogue ◽  
M Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Abstract. In this study, time-dependent probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is performed for Tuzla, Istanbul in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, using various earthquake scenarios of Prince Island Fault within next 50 and 100 years. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is used to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue which includes earthquakes having magnitudes between Mw 6.5 and 7.1. This interval defines the minimum and maximum magnitudes for the fault in the case of entire fault rupture which depends on the characteristic fault model. Based on this catalogue, probability of occurrence and associated tsunami wave heights are calculated for each event. The study associates the probabilistic approach with tsunami numerical modelling. Tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE was used for tsunami simulations. According to the results of the analysis, distribution of probability of occurrence corresponding to tsunami hydrodynamic parameters are represented. Maximum positive and negative wave amplitudes show that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m have 65 % probability of exceedance for next 50 years and this value increases by 85 % in Tuzla region for next 100 years. Inundation depth also exceeds 1 m in the region with probabilities of occurrence of 60 % and 80 % for next 50 and 100 years, respectively. Moreover, Probabilistic inundations maps are generated to investigate inundated zones and the amount of water penetrated inland. Probability of exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, ranges between 10 % and 75 % according to these probabilistic inundation maps and the maximum inundation distance calculated among entire earthquake catalogue is 60 m in this test site. Furthermore, at synthetic gauge points which are selected along the western coast of the Istanbul by including Tuzla coasts. Tuzla is one of the area that shows high probability exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, which is around 90 %, for the next 50 years while this probability reaches up to more than 95 % for the next 100 years.

scholarly journals Fast Modelling of Tsunami Wave Propagation using PC with Hardware Computer Code Acceleration

2001 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 433-444
Author(s):  
Mikhail M. Lavrentiev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Hardware Acceleration ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Computer Code ◽  
Analytic Solutions ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Computational Domain ◽  
Field Programmable ◽  
Wave Heights

The field programmable gates array (FPGA) microchip is applied to achieve considerable performance gain in simulation of tsunami wave propagation using personal computer. The two-step Mac-Cormack scheme was used for approximation of the shallow water equations. An idea of PC-based tsunami wave propagation simulation is described. Comparison with the available analytic solutions and numerical results obtained with the reference code show that developed approach provides good accuracy in simulations. It takes less then 1 minute to compute 1 hour of the wave propagation in computational domain that contains 3000 × 2500 nodes. Using the nested greed approach, it is possible to decrease the size of space step from about 300 meters to 10 m. Using the proposed approach, the entire computational process (to calculate the wave propagation from the source area to the coast) takes about 2 min. As an example the distribution of maximal heights of tsunami wave along the coast of the Southern part of Japan is simulated. In particular, the interrelation between maximal wave heights and location of tsunami source is studied. Model sources of size 100 × 200 km have realistic parameters for this region. It was found that only selected parts of the entire coast line are exposed to tsunami wave with dangerous height. However, the occurrence of extreme tsunami wave heights at some of those areas can be attributed to the local bathymetry. The proposed hardware acceleration to compute tsunami wave propagation can be used for rapid (say, during few minutes) evaluation of danger from tsunami wave for a particular location of the coast

scholarly journals Reka Ulang Waktu Tiba Dan Tinggi Gelombang Tsunami : Studi Kasus Pusat Gempa Di Pantai Utara Bolaang Mongondow

Jurnal MIPA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Nismawati Mangiri’ ◽  
Gerald Tamuntuan ◽  
Guntur Pasau
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Tsunami Simulation ◽  
Tsunami Hazards ◽  
Wave Heights

Telah dilakukan prakiraan waktu tiba dan tinggi gelombang tsunami guna dalam rangka memperoleh informasi tentang potensi bahaya tsunami di daerah pantai utara Bolaang Mongondow. Data yang digunakan adalah data dari katalog gempabumi USGS periode 1890-2016. Data diolah untuk mendapatkan informasi karakteristik patahan dan dilakukan simulasi gempabumi menggunakan Software WinITDB. Dari hasil simulasi gempabumi, diketahui bahwa daerah pesisir pantai utara Bolaang Mongondow termasuk dalam klasifikasi tsunami yang cukup berbahaya karena tinggi gelombang tsunami yang menerjang adalah H > 0,5 m serta energi yang terbangkitkan adalah 2,98 1013 joulePrediction of arrival time and wave height of tsunami in northern coast of Bolaang Mongondow has been conducted in order to obtain information about potential tsunami hazards in the area. The data used are obtained from the USGS earthquake catalog in the period 1890-2016. The data is then processed using WinITDB Software to obtain information on fault characteristics and tsunami simulation. The results show that tsunami wave heights that can occur was H> 0.5 m and the generated energy was 2.98 1013 joules. It was mean that the northern coast area of Bolaang Mongondow was classified as a fairly dangerous tsunami

scholarly journals KAJIAN DAERAH RENDAMAN TSUNAMI DI PESISIR TELUK LAMPUNG AKIBAT PERUBAHAN TOPOGRAFI GUNUNG ANAK KRAKATAU DI TAHUN 2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-41
Author(s):  
Resti Elida Nurhawati Siregar ◽  
Ahmad Zakaria ◽  
Armijon Armijon
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Area ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
The Body ◽  
Time Of Arrival ◽  
Tsunami Inundation ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Tsunami Disaster ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Tsunami Wave Height ◽  
Wave Heights

The eruption of the Anak Krakatoa volcano (GAK) in December 2018 caused part of the body of GAK to collapse into the sea and caused a tsunami. This avalanche also caused changes in the topography of GAK. If there is a repeat of the disaster with the current GAK topography, it will certainly cause changes in tsunami wave height at the shoreline which will affect changes in the tsunami inundation area. Because the location of the Lampung Bay coastal area which is quite close to GAK makes the Lampung Bay coastal area vulnerable to the tsunami disaster. So, it is necessary to study the tsunami inundation area due to changes in the current GAK topography in the coastal area of Lampung Bay. This study was conducted using non-numerical methods to obtain wave heights at the shoreline and the Berryman methods to obtain tsunami inundation areas in the coastal areas of Lampung bay by making three scenarios. Based on the results of the study, it is known that the height of tsunami waves, which are 13 meters, 26 meters, and 39 meters with an average time of arrival of tsunami waves on the shoreline is 57 minutes. Where there are seven sub-districts submerged by the tsunami with a distance of about 160 meters to 1.6 kilometers.

scholarly journals Estimation of Significant Wave Heights from ASCAT Scatterometer Data via Deep Learning Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
He Wang ◽  
Jingsong Yang ◽  
Jianhua Zhu ◽  
Lin Ren ◽  
Yahao Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Incidence Angle ◽  
Ocean Waves ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Learning Technology ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wave Heights

Sea state estimation from wide-swath and frequent-revisit scatterometers, which are providing ocean winds in the routine, is an attractive challenge. In this study, state-of-the-art deep learning technology is successfully adopted to develop an algorithm for deriving significant wave height from Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) aboard MetOp-A. By collocating three years (2016–2018) of ASCAT measurements and WaveWatch III sea state hindcasts at a global scale, huge amount data points (>8 million) were employed to train the multi-hidden-layer deep learning model, which has been established to map the inputs of thirteen sea state related ASCAT observables into the wave heights. The ASCAT significant wave height estimates were validated against hindcast dataset independent on training, showing good consistency in terms of root mean square error of 0.5 m under moderate sea condition (1.0–5.0 m). Additionally, reasonable agreement is also found between ASCAT derived wave heights and buoy observations from National Data Buoy Center for the proposed algorithm. Results are further discussed with respect to sea state maturity, radar incidence angle along with the limitations of the model. Our work demonstrates the capability of scatterometers for monitoring sea state, thus would advance the use of scatterometers, which were originally designed for winds, in studies of ocean waves.

scholarly journals Intermittent but Rapid Changes to Coastal Landscapes: The Tsunami and El Niño Wave-Formed Sea Arch at Laie Point, Oahu, Hawaii, U.S.A.

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Benjamin R. Jordan
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Sand Dunes ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Storm Waves ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Coastal Landscapes ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
First Time

Kukuiho’olua Island is an islet that lies 164 m due north of Laie Point, a peninsula of cemented, coastal, Pleistocene and Holocene sand dunes. Kukuiho’olua Island consists of the same dune deposits as Laie Point and is cut by a sea arch, which, documented here for first time, may have formed during the 1 April 1946 “April Fools’s Day Tsunami.” The tsunami-source of formation is supported by previous modeling by other authors, which indicated that the geometry of overhanging sea cliffs can greatly strengthen and focus the force of tsunami waves. Additional changes occurred to the island and arch during the 2015–2016 El Niño event, which was one of the strongest on record. During the event, anomalous wave heights and reversed wind directions occurred across the Pacific. On the night of 24–25 February 2016, large storm waves, resulting from the unique El Niño conditions washed out a large boulder that had lain within the arch since its initial formation, significantly increasing the open area beneath the arch. Large waves also rose high enough for seawater to flow over the peninsula at Laie Point, causing significant erosion of its upper surface. These changes at Laie Point and Kukuio’olua Island serve as examples of long-term, intermittent change to a coastline—changes that, although infrequent, can occur quickly and dramatically, potentially making them geologic hazards.

scholarly journals Wave Height Distributions and Rogue Waves in the Eastern Mediterranean

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 660
Author(s):  
Sagi Knobler ◽  
Daniel Bar ◽  
Rotem Cohen ◽  
Dan Liberzon
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Rogue Waves ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Order Model ◽  
Deep Seawater ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Storm Characteristics ◽  
Buoy Data

There is a lack of scientific knowledge about the physical sea characteristics of the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. The current work offers a comprehensive view of wave fields in southern Israel waters covering a period between January 2017 and June 2018. The analyzed data were collected by a meteorological buoy providing wind and waves parameters. As expected for this area, the strongest storm events occurred throughout October–April. In this paper, we analyze the buoy data following two main objectives—identifying the most appropriate statistical distribution model and examining wave data in search of rogue wave presence. The objectives were accomplished by comparing a number of models suitable for deep seawater waves. The Tayfun—Fedele 3rd order model showed the best agreement with the tail of the empirical wave heights distribution. Examination of different statistical thresholds for the identification of rogue waves resulted in the detection of 99 unique waves, all of relatively low height, except for one wave that reached 12.2 m in height which was detected during a powerful January 2018 storm. Characteristics of the detected rogue waves were examined, revealing the majority of them presenting crest to trough symmetry. This finding calls for a reevaluation of the crest amplitude being equal to or above 1.25 the significant wave height threshold which assumes rogue waves carry most of their energy in the crest.

Fluid-structure interaction computational analysis and experiments of tsunami bore forces on coastal bridges

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1373-1395
Author(s):  
Iman Mazinani ◽  
Mohammad Mohsen Sarafraz ◽  
Zubaidah Ismail ◽  
Ahmad Mustafa Hashim ◽  
Mohammad Reza Safaei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Fluid Structure Interaction ◽  
Indian Ocean Tsunami ◽  
Fluid Structure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coastal Bridges ◽  
Structure Interaction ◽  
Wave Flume ◽  
Wave Heights

Purpose Two disastrous Tsunamis, one on the west coast of Sumatra Island, Indonesia, in 2004 and another in North East Japan in 2011, had seriously destroyed a large number of bridges. Thus, experimental tests in a wave flume and a fluid structure interaction (FSI) analysis were constructed to gain insight into tsunami bore force on coastal bridges. Design/methodology/approach Various wave heights and shallow water were used in the experiments and computational process. A 1:40 scaled concrete bridge model was placed in mild beach profile similar to a 24 × 1.5 × 2 m wave flume for the experimental investigation. An Arbitrary Lagrange Euler formulation for the propagation of tsunami solitary and bore waves by an FSI package of LS-DYNA on high-performance computing system was used to evaluate the experimental results. Findings The excellent agreement between experiments and computational simulation is shown in results. The results showed that the fully coupled FSI models could capture the tsunami wave force accurately for all ranges of wave heights and shallow depths. The effects of the overturning moment, horizontal, uplift and impact forces on a pier and deck of the bridge were evaluated in this research. Originality/value Photos and videos captured during the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the 2011 Japan tsunami showed solitary tsunami waves breaking offshore, along with an extremely turbulent tsunami-induced bore propagating toward shore with significantly higher velocity. Consequently, the outcomes of this current experimental and numerical study are highly relevant to the evaluation of tsunami bore forces on the coastal, over sea or river bridges. These experiments assessed tsunami wave forces on deck pier showing the complete response of the coastal bridge over water.

scholarly journals Tsunami wave propagation by voronoi diagram

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1233
Author(s):  
V Yuvaraj ◽  
S Rajasekaran ◽  
D Nagarajan
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Voronoi Diagram ◽  
Tsunami Wave ◽  
Fast Marching Method ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Fast Marching ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
The Finite Difference Method ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Marching Method

Cellular automata is the model applied in very complicated situations and complex problems. It involves the Introduction of voronoi diagram in tsunami wave propagation with the help of a fast-marching method to find the spread of the tsunami waves in the coastal regions. In this study we have modelled and predicted the tsunami wave propagation using the finite difference method. This analytical method gives the horizontal and vertical layers of the wave run up and enables the calculation of reaching time.  

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