Comparisons of different definitions of the western Pacific pattern and associated winter climate anomalies in Eurasia and North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasi Aru
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
Air Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Western Pacific Pattern

<p>The western Pacific pattern (WP) is one of the most prominent teleconnection patterns over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in boreal winter. There exist several methods employed to identify the WP in the literature. This study compares eight WPs defined by different methods. Correlation coefficients among the eight WP indices (WPIs) show considerable spreads, though most of them are statistically significant. The meridional dipole structure of WP can be captured by all of the WPIs, but it shows large spreads in the locations of the centers. Several WPIs produce a significant correlation with the winter Arctic Oscillation, with marked signals of atmospheric anomalies over the Arctic region. Connections of the WPs with the simultaneous winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) depend largely upon their definitions. Impacts of the WPs on the surface air temperature over many parts of Eurasia and North America are also sensitive to their definitions. Differences in the surface air temperature anomalies are closely related to differences in the spatial structure of the WPs. Finally, we define a new WP index as differences in the area-average 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies between subtropics and mid-latitude of northwestern Pacific. This newly defined WP index has a close relation with the above eight WPIs, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and surface air temperature anomalies over Eurasia and North America.</p>

scholarly journals Unraveling the Teleconnection Mechanisms that Induce Wintertime Temperature Anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere Continents in Response to the MJO

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (9) ◽  
pp. 3557-3571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyong-Hwan Seo ◽  
Hyun-Ju Lee ◽  
Dargan M. W. Frierson
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Air Temperature Variations

Abstract Significant extratropical surface air temperature variations arise as a result of teleconnections induced by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The authors elucidate the detailed physical processes responsible for the development of temperature anomalies over Northern Hemisphere continents in response to MJO-induced heating using an intraseasonal perturbation thermodynamic equation and a wave activity tracing technique. A quantitative assessment demonstrates that surface air temperature variations are due to dynamical processes associated with a meridionally propagating Rossby wave train. Over East Asia, a local Hadley circulation causes adiabatic subsidence following MJO phase 3 to be a main driver for the warming. Meanwhile, for North America and eastern Europe, horizontal temperature advection by northerlies or southerlies is the key process for warming or cooling. A ray-tracing analysis illustrates that Rossby waves with zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3 influence the surface warming over North America and a faster wavenumber 4 affects surface temperature over eastern Europe. Although recent studies demonstrate the impacts of the Arctic Oscillation, Arctic sea ice melting, and Eurasian snow cover variations on extremely cold wintertime episodes over the NH extratropics, the weather and climate there are still considerably modulated through teleconnections induced by the tropical heat forcing. In addition, the authors show that the MJO is a real source of predictability for strong warm/cold events over these continents, suggesting a higher possibility of making a skillful forecast of temperature extremes with over 1 month of lead time.

scholarly journals Variability of Indian summer monsoon: Relationship with surface air temperature anomalies over northern hemisphere

MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-198
Author(s):  
R. K. VERMA
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Air Temperature Anomalies

Thirty year (1950-79) time series of Monsoon Index (MI) is correlated with the gridded surface air temperature data over northern hemisphere land at various time lags of months (i.e., months preceding concurrent and succeeding to the monsoon season) to identify tele-connections of monsoon with the northern hemisphere surface air temperature anomalies. .   Out of three key regions identified which show statistically significant relationship of monsoon rainfall, two regions are in the higher latitudinal belt of 40oN- 70oN over North America and Eurasia which show positive correlations with temperatures during northern winter particularly during  January and February. The third region is located over northwest India and adjoining Pakistan, where the maximum positive correlation is observed to occur during the pre-li1onsoon months of April and May. These relationships suggest that cooler northern hemisphere during the preceding seasons of winter/spring over certain key regions are generally associated with below normal summer monsoon rainfall over India and vice-versa which could be useful predictors for long-range forecasting of monsoon.   There are two large regions in the northern tropics, namely, Asian and African monsoons whose temperatures reveal strong negative correlations with monsoon rainfall during the seasons concurrent and subsequent to the summer monsoon season. However, persistence of this relationship for longer period of about two seasons after the monsoon, suggests the dominant influence of  ENSO (El. Nino-Southern Oscillation) on tropical climate.  

An Intraseasonal Mode Linking Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over Arctic and Eurasian Continent

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Free Atmosphere ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation

Abstract Key processes associated with the leading intraseasonal variability mode of wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia and the Arctic region are investigated in this study. Characterized by a dipole distribution in SAT anomalies centered over north Eurasia and the Arctic, respectively, and coherent temperature anomalies vertically extending from the surface to 300hPa, this leading intraseasonal SAT mode and associated circulation have pronounced influences on global surface temperature anomalies including the East Asian winter monsoon region. By taking advantage of realistic simulations of the intraseasonal SAT mode in a global climate model, it is illustrated that temperature anomalies in the troposphere associated with the leading SAT mode are mainly due to dynamic processes, especially via the horizontal advection of winter mean temperature by intraseasonal circulation. While the cloud-radiative feedback is not critical in sustaining the temperature variability in the troposphere, it is found to play a crucial role in coupling temperature anomalies at the surface and in the free-atmosphere through anomalous surface downward longwave radiation. The variability in clouds associated with the intraseasonal SAT mode is closely linked to moisture anomalies generated by similar advective processes as for temperature anomalies. Model experiments suggest that this leading intraseasonal SAT mode can be sustained by internal atmospheric processes in the troposphere over the mid-to-high latitudes by excluding forcings from Arctic sea ice variability, tropical convective variability, and the stratospheric processes.

40-years of Saharan dust events in the Carpathian Basin: background, frequency, intensity, changing patterns

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
György Varga ◽  
Nadia Gammoudi ◽  
János Kovács
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Flow Patterns ◽  
Carpathian Basin ◽  
Saharan Dust ◽  
Dust Deposition ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Modis Aod ◽  
Dust Events ◽  
Air Temperature Anomalies

<p>Saharan dust events were investigated in the Carpathian Basin (Central Europe) for the period between 1979 and 2018 by using various satellite (TOMS and OMI Aerosol Index; MODIS AOD) and numerical forecast (Barcelona Supercomputing Centre’s DREAM, NMMB/BSC-Dust-model and SKIRON) products and modelled deposition of NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2. The identified 218 episodes were classified into three characteristic clusters based on synoptic background. 700 hPa geopotential height, wind vectors and meridional flow patterns, as well as backward trajectories of the episodes determined the classification.</p><p>Interannual variability of dust activity was remarkable, while seasonal frequencies of the episodes revealed clear spatiotemporal patterns with spring (40.2%) and summer (31.6%) maxima of the events. Mean values of dust deposition showed springtime maxima (44.1%) and dominance of wet deposition (77-93%), while amount of deposited dust material in the other seasons were quite similar, indicating the governing role of local weather conditions (e.g., precipitation patterns). Average warm advection of the episodes was 3.5°C (with spring minima, due to the more rain), but the decadal surface air temperature anomalies showed a general increasing trend.</p><p>Recently, a few more intense wintertime dust deposition events indicated changes in the deterministic atmospheric flow system. Seasonal and decadal zonal mean surface air temperature anomalies of dusty days showed clearly the increased warming of high latitudes during the last few winter episodes. The enhanced meridionality of (dust transporting) winds was also observable in the number of days with 15< m/s meridional wind component (at 700 hPa). Warmer Arctic region and more meandering air flow patterns could be responsible for these unusual dust episodes in the recent years.</p><p>Support of the National Research, Development and Innovation Office NKFIH KH130337 and NKFIH K120213 are gratefully acknowledged.</p>

Predictable Patterns of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature in Northern Hemisphere and Their Predictability Sources in the SEAS5

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (24) ◽  
pp. 10743-10754
Author(s):  
Hongdou Fan ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Yang Zhang ◽  
Youmin Tang ◽  
Wansuo Duan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The Pacific

AbstractBased on 36-yr hindcasts from the fifth-generation seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (SEAS5), the most predictable patterns of the wintertime 2-m air temperature (T2m) in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere are extracted via the maximum signal-to-noise (MSN) empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and their associated predictability sources are identified. The MSN EOF1 captures the warming trend that amplifies over the Arctic but misses the associated warm Arctic–cold continent pattern. The MSN EOF2 delineates a wavelike T2m pattern over the Pacific–North America region, which is rooted in the tropical forcing of the eastern Pacific-type El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The MSN EOF3 shows a wavelike T2m pattern over the Pacific–North America region, which has an approximately 90° phase difference from that associated with MSN EOF2, and a loading center over midlatitude Eurasia. Its sources of predictability include the central Pacific-type ENSO and Eurasian snow cover. The MSN EOF4 reflects T2m variability surrounding the Tibetan Plateau, which is plausibly linked to the remote forcing of the Arctic sea ice. The information on the leading predictable patterns and their sources of predictability is further used to develop a calibration scheme to improve the prediction skill of T2m. The calibrated prediction skill in terms of the anomaly correlation coefficient improves significantly over midlatitude Eurasia in a leave-one-out cross-validation, implying a possible way to improve the wintertime T2m prediction in the SEAS5.

Improving predictions of surface air temperature anomalies over Japan by Selective Ensemble Mean technique

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. V. Ratnam ◽  
Takeshi Doi ◽  
Yushi Morioka ◽  
Pascal Oettli ◽  
Masami Nonaka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Selective Ensemble ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Air Temperature Anomalies

AbstractSelective ensemble mean (SEM) technique is applied to the late spring and summer months (May to August) surface air temperature anomaly predictions of the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change Version 2 (SINTEX-F2) coupled general circulation model over Japan. Using the Köppen-Geiger climatic classification we chose four regions over Japan for applying the SEM technique. The SINTEX-F2 ensemble members for the SEM are chosen based on the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of the SINTEX-F2 predicted and observed surface air temperature anomalies. The SEM technique is applied to generate the forecasts of the surface air temperature anomalies for the period 1983 to 2018 using the selected members. Analysis shows the ACC skill score of the SEM prediction to be higher compared to the ACC skill score of predictions obtained by averaging all the 24 members of the SINTEX-F2 (ENSMEAN). The SEM predicted surface air temperature anomalies also have higher hit rate and lower false alarm rate compared to the ENSMEAN predicted anomalies over a range of temperature anomalies. The results indicate the SEM technique to be a simple and easy to apply method to improve the SINTEX-F2 predictions of surface air temperature anomalies over Japan. The better performance of the SEM in generating the surface air temperature anomalies can be partly attributed to realistic prediction of 850hPa geopotential height anomalies over Japan.

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