Accelerating Global Science on Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis (AGITHAR)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joern Behrens ◽  
Inigo Aniel-Quiroga ◽  
Sebastiano D'Amico ◽  
Frederic Dias ◽  
Ira Didenkulova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Global Science ◽  
First Results ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

<p>Recent tsunami disasters revealed severe gaps between the anticipated level of hazard and the true extent of the event, with resulting loss of life and property. The severe consequences were underestimated in part due to the lack of rigorous and accepted hazard analysis methods and large uncertainty in forecasting the tsunami source mechanism and strength. Uncertainty and underestimation of the hazard and risk resulted in insufficient preparedness measures. While there is no absolute protection against disasters of the scale of mega tsunamis, a more accurate analysis of the potential risk can help to minimize losses from tsunami.<br>After the major events in 2004 and 2011 many new initiatives originated novel methods for tsunami hazard and risk analysis. However, rigorous performance assessment and evaluation – with respect to guiding principles in tsunami hazard and risk analysis – has not been conducted. In particular, comprehensive uncertainty assessments and related standards are required in order to implement more robust and reliable hazard analysis strategies and, ultimately, better mitigate tsunami impact. This is the core challenge of the proposed COST Action Accelerating Global science In Tsunami HAzard and Risk analysis (AGITHAR).<br>In our presentation we will demonstrate first results of the Action, assessing research gaps, open questions, and a very coarse roadmap for future research.</p>

scholarly journals Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jörn Behrens ◽  
Finn Løvholt ◽  
Fatemeh Jalayer ◽  
Stefano Lorito ◽  
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Research Gaps ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Baker ◽  
Brendon Bradley ◽  
Peter Stafford
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Worked Examples ◽  
Essential Elements ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Specific Calculations ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

Seismic hazard and risk analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seismology.

Coordinated efforts in tsunami hazard and risk analyses in Europe and link to the Global Tsunami Model network initiative

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Finn Løvholt ◽  
Jörn Behrens ◽  
Stefano Lorito ◽  
Andrey Babeyko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Seismic Sources ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Model Network ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Tsunami Model ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

<p>The tsunami disasters of 2004 in the Indian Ocean and of 2011 along the Tohoku coast of Japan revealed severe gaps between the anticipated risk and consequences, with resulting loss of life and property. A similar observation is also relevant for the smaller, yet disastrous, tsunamis with unusual source characteristics such as the recent events in Palu Bay and Sunda Strait in 2018. The severe consequences were underestimated in part due to the lack of rigorous and accepted hazard analysis methods and large uncertainty in forecasting the tsunami sources. Population response to small recent tsunamis in the Mediterranean also revealed a lack of preparedness and awareness. While there is no absolute protection against large tsunamis, a more accurate analysis of the potential risk can help to minimize losses. The tsunami community has made significant progress in understanding tsunami hazard from seismic sources. However, this is only part of the inputs needed to effectively manage tsunami risk, which should be understood more holistically, including non-seismic sources, vulnerability in different dimensions and the overall societal effects, in addition to its interaction with other hazards and cascading effects. Moreover, higher standards need to be achieved to manage and quantify uncertainty, which govern our basis for tsunami risk decision making. Hence, a collective community effort is needed to effectively handle all these challenges across disciplines and trades, from researchers to stakeholders. To coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) the Global Tsunami Model network (GTM) was initiated in 2015 towards enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk from a local to global scale. Here, we focus on coordinated European efforts, sharing the same goals as GTM, towards improving standards and best practices for tsunami risk reduction. The networking initiative, AGITHAR (Accelerating Global science In Tsunami HAzard and Risk Analysis), is a European COST Action, aims to assess, benchmark, improve, and document methods to analyse tsunami hazard and risk, understand and communicate the uncertainty involved, and interact with stakeholders in order to understand the societal needs and thus contribute to their effort to minimize losses. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the suite of methodologies used for tsunami hazard and risk analysis, review state of the art in global tsunami hazard and risk analysis, dating back to results from the Global Risk Model in 2015, and highlight possible gaps and challenges. We further discuss how AGITHAR and GTM will address how to tackle these challenges, and finally, discuss how global and regional structures such as the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) and the UNDRR Global Risk Assessment Framework (GRAF) can facilitate and mutually benefit towards an integrated framework of services aiding improved understanding of multiple hazards.</p>

Preliminary Hazard and Risk Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 123-136
Author(s):  
Bruce Lyon ◽  
Georgi Popov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Hazard And Risk Analysis

scholarly journals On the landslide tsunami uncertainty and hazard

Landslides ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 2301-2315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Finn Løvholt ◽  
Sylfest Glimsdal ◽  
Carl B. Harbitz
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Probabilistic Framework ◽  
Tsunami Inundation ◽  
Event Trees ◽  
To Come ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Landslide Tsunami ◽  
Prognostic Modelling

Abstract Landslides are the second most frequent tsunami source worldwide. However, their complex and diverse nature of origin combined with their infrequent event records make prognostic modelling challenging. In this paper, we present a probabilistic framework for analysing uncertainties emerging from the landslide source process. This probabilistic framework employs event trees and is used to conduct tsunami uncertainty analysis as well as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). An example study is presented for the Lyngen fjord in Norway. This application uses a mix of empirical landslide data combined with expert judgement to come up with probability maps for tsunami inundation. Based on this study, it is concluded that the present landslide tsunami hazard analysis is largely driven by epistemic uncertainties. These epistemic uncertainties can be incorporated in the probabilistic framework. Conducting a literature analysis, we further show examples of how landslide and tsunami data can be used to better constrain landslide uncertainties, combined with statistical and numerical analysis methods. We discuss how these methods, combined with the probabilistic framework, can be used to improve landslide tsunami hazard analysis in the future.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: High Performance Computing for Massive Scale Monte Carlo type Inundation Simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J. Gibbons ◽  
Manuel J. Castro Díaz ◽  
Sylfest Glimsdal ◽  
Carl Bonnevie Harbitz ◽  
Maria Concetta Lorenzino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Performance Computing ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Propagation Model ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Tsunami Inundation ◽  
Center Of Excellence ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ◽  
Performance Computing

<p>Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) is an approach to quantifying the likelihood of exceeding a specified metric of tsunami inundation at a given location within a given time interval. It provides scientific guidance for decision making regarding coastal engineering and evacuation planning. PTHA requires a discretization of many potential tsunami source scenarios and an evaluation of the probability of each scenario. The classical approach of PTHA has been the quantification of the tsunami hazard offshore, while estimates of the inundation at a given coastal site have been limited to a few scenarios. PTHA, with an adequate discretization of source scenarios, combined with high-resolution inundation modelling, has been out of reach with existing models and computing capabilities with tens to hundreds of thousands of moderately intensive numerical simulations being required. In recent years, more efficient GPU-based High Performance Computing (HPC) facilities, together with efficient GPU-optimized shallow water type models for simulating tsunami inundation, have made a regional and local long-term hazard assessment feasible. PTHA is one of the so-called Pilot Demonstrators of the EC-funded ChEESE project (Center of Excellence for Exascale Computing in the Solid Earth) where a workflow has been developed with three main stages: source specification and discretization, efficient numerical inundation simulation for each scenario using the HySEA numerical tsunami propagation model, and hazard aggregation. HySEA calculates tsunami offshore propagation and inundation using a system of telescopic topo-bathymetric grids. In this presentation, we illustrate the workflows of the PTHA as implemented for HPC applications, including preliminary simulations carried out on intermediate scale GPU clusters. Finally, we delineate how planned upscaling to exascale applications can significantly increase the accuracy of local tsunami hazard analysis.</p><p>This work is partially funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement No 823844 (ChEESE Center of Excellence, www.cheese-coe.eu).</p>

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