Reproduction and projection of sea level around Korean Peninsula using regional climate ocean model with dynamical downscaling method

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwang-Young Jeong ◽  
Eunil Lee ◽  
Do-Seong Byun ◽  
Gwang-Ho Seo ◽  
Hwa-Young Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Change Scenario

<p>Recently, the rate of sea level rise in accelerating with time, and many studies have reported that sea level will increase rapidly in the near future. Also, various global ocean climate models are used to predict sea level rise due to global warming. However, most global ocean climate models have low resolutions, so it is hard to explain detailed the ocean phenomena such as sea level and currents around Korean Peninsula. This study aims to past 30-year reproduce and future 100-year predict for rising trend of sea level using Regional Climate Ocean Model (RCOM) with ROMS according to IPCC climate change scenario (RCP 4.5).</p><p>The RCOM with high resolution of 1/20° horizontally and 40 layers vertically has been established for reproduction and long term forecast of sea-level rise in the Northwest Pacific, including marginal seas around Korea. Dynamic downscaling processes using result of the global climate models were applied to the open boundary conditions of our RCOM. To prepare the optimal boundary data for RCOM, the CMIP5 climate model was evaluated to select 4 climate models: IPSL-CM5A-LR, and -MR, NorESM1-M, MPI-ESM-LR.</p><p>Based on the RCOM results of 4 experiments, the rate of sea level rise for IPCC climate change scenario (RCP4.5) around Korean peninsula were 2.52, 2.21, 3.11, 3.36 mm/yr for the last 30 years (1976~2005), and 5.17, 4.99, 5.62, 5.42 mm/yr for the next 100 years (2006~2100), respectively. Ensemble mean value of next 100 years for 4 model results was 5.30 mm/yr. The sea level rise of 4 models for RCP 4.5 were 48, 48, 58, 48 cm for next 100 years, respectively, and ensemble mean value of 4 models was 50 cm during 2006~2100.</p><p>Future studies will focus on predicting the next 100 years of sea level change based on IPCC climate change scenario (RCP2.6, 8.5).</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals A Study on Future Change in Surface Wind over the Korean Peninsula based on a Regional Climate Change Scenario

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 329-340
Author(s):  
Jineun Kim ◽  
◽  
Gayoung Kim ◽  
Chun-Sil Jin ◽  
Dong-Kyou Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Future Change

Building Asian climate change scenario by multi-regional climate models ensemble. Part I: surface air temperature

2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (13) ◽  
pp. 4241-4252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianping Tang ◽  
Qian Li ◽  
Shuyu Wang ◽  
Dong-Kyou Lee ◽  
Pinhong Hui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Change Scenario

Building Asian climate change scenario by multi-regional climate models ensemble. Part II: mean precipitation

2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (13) ◽  
pp. 4253-4264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Li ◽  
Shuyu Wang ◽  
Dong-Kyou Lee ◽  
Jianping Tang ◽  
Xiaorui Niu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Change Scenario

Probabilistic Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Korean major coastal regions under RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 389-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wooyoung Cha ◽  
◽  
Jeonghyeon Choi ◽  
Okjeong Lee ◽  
Sangdan Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Probabilistic Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Kriging Approach to Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) for Spatial Downscaling of Climate Change Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong-Tak Kim ◽  
Carlos H R Lima ◽  
Hyun-Han Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Spatial Downscaling

<p>Rainfall simulation by climate model is generally provided at coarse grids and bias correction is routinely needed for the hydrological applications. This study aims to explore an alternative approach to downscale daily rainfall simulated by the regional climate model (RCM) at any desired grid resolution along with bias correction using a Kriging model, which better represents spatial dependencies of distribution parameters across the watershed. The Kringing model also aims to reproduce the spatial variability observed in the ground rainfall gauge. The proposed model is validated through the entire weather stations in South Korea and climate change scenarios simulated by the five different RCMs informed by two GCMs. The results confirmed that the proposed spatial downscaling model could reproduce the observed rainfall statistics and spatial variability of rainfall. The proposed model further applied to the climate change scenario. A discussion of the potential uses of the mode is offered.</p><p>KEYWORDS: Climate Change Scenario, Global Climate Models, Regional Climate Models, Statistical Downscaling, Spatial-Temporal Bias</p><p> </p><p>Acknowledgement</p><p>This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI(KMI2018-01215)</p>

Integrated extreme sea level events in the Mediterranean coast of Spain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Lira Loarca ◽  
Manuel Cobos ◽  
Agustín Millares ◽  
Giovanni Besio ◽  
Asunción Baquerizo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
The World

<p>Coastal areas are one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change given their high exposure to the increasingly frequent extreme sea level (ESL) events and the high population density with around 680 million people (approximately 10% of the world’s population) residing at less than 10 m above sea level and projected to reach more than one billion by 2050 (IPCC, 2019).</p><p>Extreme sea level events include the combination of mean sea level, tides, surges and waves set-up. These events that historically occurred once per century are projected to become at least an annual occurrence at most parts of the world during the 21st century. Therefore, a crucial step towards coastal planning and adaption is the understanding of the drivers and impacts of ESL events (Hinkel et al., 2019).</p><p>Flooding and extreme events in river mouths and their adjacent coastline have a complex nature with oceanic and fluvial processes taking place. Their analysis requires, therefore, the consideration of several physical variables that play a role in water levels such as precipitation, waves, storm surge, and tides. In a climate change scenario, the effects of sea level rise and storminess changes must also be accounted for. The contribution of different processes to ESL events has often been analyzed independently given the difficulty to predict their combined effects.</p><p>This work focuses on the analysis of ESL events due to the combination of sea level rise, extreme waves, storm surges, tides and river flows in a climate change scenario, following:</p><ol><li>Projections of wave variables for an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs under RCP8.5 using WavewatchIII v5.16 (Besio et al., 2019). Wave propagation of local hydrodynamic processes and storm surge with Delft3D.</li> <li>Projections of river flow using a physical-based and distributed hydrological model under the same runs as the wave climate.</li> <li>Joint statistical characterization of local waves and river flows and long-term temporal variability based on the methodology of Lira-Loarca et al. (2020).</li> <li>Analysis of compound extreme sea level and flooding events.</li> </ol><p>The methodology is applied to a case study in the coast of Granada (Spain) where severe flood events have occurred in recent years. The results highlight the need for an integrated approach encompassing the relevant components of water levels, and specifically sea level rise and waves and the differences in the temporal variability of the significant wave height in a climate change scenario.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>References:</p><ul><li>Besio et al., 2019. Trends and variability of waves under scenario RCP8.5 in the Mediterranean Sea. 2<sup>nd</sup>International Workshop on Waves, Storm Surges, and Coastal Hazards, Melbourne, Australia</li> <li>Hinkel et al., 2019. Sea level rise and implications for low lying islands, coasts and communities. IPCC SROCC.</li> <li>IPCC, 2019. SPM Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.</li> <li>Lira-Loarca et al., 2020. Storm characterization and simulation for damage evolution models of maritime structures. Coastal Engineering, 156, 103620.</li> </ul>

scholarly journals Changes in beach shoreline due to sea level rise and waves under climate change scenarios: application to the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandra R. Enríquez ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Amaya Álvarez-Ellacuría ◽  
Alejandro Orfila ◽  
Damià Gomis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Swash Zone ◽  
Climate Scenarios

Abstract. In this work we assess the impacts in reshaping coastlines as a result of sea level rise and changes in wave climate. The methodology proposed combines the SWAN and SWASH wave models to resolve the wave processes from deep waters up to the swash zone in two micro-tidal sandy beaches in Mallorca Island, Western Mediterranean. In a first step, the modelling approach is validated with observations from wave gauges and from the shoreline inferred from video monitoring stations, showing a good agreement between them. Afterwards, the modelling setup is applied to the 21st century sea level and wave projections under two different climate scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85. Sea level projections were retrieved from state of the art regional estimates, while wave projections were obtained from regional climate models. Changes in the coastline are explored under mean and extreme wave conditions. Our results indicate that the studied beaches would suffer a coastal retreat between 7 and up to 50 m, equivalent to half of the present-day aerial beach surface, under the climate scenarios considered.

An evaluation of the surface climatology over the Totten region (Antarctica) using COSMO-CLM2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Helsen ◽  
Sam Vanden Broucke ◽  
Alexandra Gossart ◽  
Niels Souverijns ◽  
Nicole van Lipzig
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>The Totten glacier is a highly dynamic outlet glacier, situated in E-Antarctica, that contains a potential sea level rise of about 3.5 meters. During recent years, this area has been influenced by sub-shelf intrusion of warm ocean currents, contributing to higher basal melt rates. Moreover, most of the ice over this area is grounded below sea level, which makes the ice shelf potentially vulnerable to the marine ice sheet instability mechanism. It is expected that, as a result of climate change, the latter mechanisms may contribute to significant ice losses in this region within the next decades, thereby contributing to future sea level rise. Up to now, most studies have been focusing on sub-shelf melt rates and the influence of the ocean, with much less attention for atmospheric processes (often ignored), which also play a key-role in determining the climatic conditions over this region. For example: surface melt is important because it contributes to hydrofracturing, a process that may lead to ice cliff instabilities. Also precipitation is an important atmospheric process, since it determines the input of mass to the ice sheet and contributes directly to the surface mass balance. In order to perform detailed studies on these processes, we need a well-evaluated climate model that represents all these processes well. Recently, the COSMO-CLM<sup>2</sup> (CCLM<sup>2</sup>) model was adapted to the climatological conditions over Antarctica. The model was evaluated by comparing a 30 year Antarctic-wide hindcast run (1986-2016) at 25 km resolution with meteorological observational products (Souverijns et al., 2019). It was shown that the model performance is comparable to other state-of-the-art regional climate models over the Antarctic region. We now applied the CCLM<sup>2</sup> model in a regional configuration over the Totten glacier area (E-Antarctica) at 5 km resolution and evaluated its performance over this region by comparing it to climatological observations from different stations. We show that the performance for temperature in the high resolution run is comparable to the performance of the Antarctic-wide run. Precipitation is, however, overestimated in the high-resolution run, especially over dome structures (Law-Dome). Therefore, we applied an orographic smoothening, which clearly improves the precipitation pattern with respect to observations. Wind speed is overestimated in some places, which is solved by increasing the surface roughness. This research frames in the context of the PARAMOUR project. Within PARAMOUR, CCLM<sup>2 </sup>is currently being coupled to an ocean model (NEMO) and an ice sheet model (f.ETISh/BISICLES) in order to understand decadal predictability over this region.</p>

scholarly journals Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive- fiction game ‘Lagos2199’

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Keys ◽  
Matthew Keys
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Climate Change Education ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
Discrete Change

Story-based futures serve an important role in climate change scenario development. Stories are particularly useful in exploring sea level rise possibilities, since we know many coastal areas are specifically vulnerable to accelerating rises in sea level. This discrete change in coastline is different from most other climate change impacts, and offers a clear basis for scientifically-informed, future scenarios. We demonstrate this with a creative world-building effort set in Lagos, Nigeria, in the year 2199. Further, we employ story-based scenario development, and create a learning-oriented, web-based game that allows users to experience stories in an open-ended, text-based adventure style. This collaborative process blended scientific research, story-telling, and artistic co-creation to iteratively construct the game ‘Lagos2199’. The first use-case of Lagos2199 is documented herein, with corresponding survey results from the student users. This work has three core conclusions. First, the unique reality that sea level rise will literally re-draw maps can be leveraged as an entry-point for world-building and scenario development of the future. Second, such a scenario can be blended with storytelling, art, and music to create a multi-dimensional, immersive exploration of ecological and social change. Third, this kind of game experience can serve an important pedagogical role in climate change education. Providing the next generation of citizens with fluency in both climate change impacts and how society will interact with such impacts, is critical for providing adaptive capacity over the coming decades and centuries of accelerating global change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document