scholarly journals Changes in beach shoreline due to sea level rise and waves under climate change scenarios: application to the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandra R. Enríquez ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Amaya Álvarez-Ellacuría ◽  
Alejandro Orfila ◽  
Damià Gomis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Swash Zone ◽  
Climate Scenarios

Abstract. In this work we assess the impacts in reshaping coastlines as a result of sea level rise and changes in wave climate. The methodology proposed combines the SWAN and SWASH wave models to resolve the wave processes from deep waters up to the swash zone in two micro-tidal sandy beaches in Mallorca Island, Western Mediterranean. In a first step, the modelling approach is validated with observations from wave gauges and from the shoreline inferred from video monitoring stations, showing a good agreement between them. Afterwards, the modelling setup is applied to the 21st century sea level and wave projections under two different climate scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85. Sea level projections were retrieved from state of the art regional estimates, while wave projections were obtained from regional climate models. Changes in the coastline are explored under mean and extreme wave conditions. Our results indicate that the studied beaches would suffer a coastal retreat between 7 and up to 50 m, equivalent to half of the present-day aerial beach surface, under the climate scenarios considered.

scholarly journals Changes in beach shoreline due to sea level rise and waves under climate change scenarios: application to the Balearic Islands (western Mediterranean)

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1075-1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandra R. Enríquez ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Amaya Álvarez-Ellacuría ◽  
Alejandro Orfila ◽  
Damià Gomis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Swash Zone ◽  
Climate Scenarios

Abstract. This work assesses the impacts in reshaping coastlines as a result of sea level rise and changes in wave climate. The methodology proposed combines the SWAN and SWASH wave models to resolve the wave processes from deep waters up to the swash zone in two micro-tidal sandy beaches in Mallorca island, western Mediterranean. In a first step, the modelling approach has been validated with observations from wave gauges and from the shoreline inferred from video monitoring stations, showing a good agreement between them. Afterwards, the modelling set-up has been applied to the 21st century sea level and wave projections under two different climate scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP45 and RCP85. Sea level projections have been retrieved from state-of-the-art regional estimates, while wave projections were obtained from regional climate models. Changes in the shoreline position have been explored under mean and extreme wave conditions. Our results indicate that the studied beaches would suffer a coastal retreat between 7 and up to 50 m, equivalent to half of the present-day aerial beach surface, under the climate scenarios considered.

scholarly journals Role of model initialization for projections of 21st-century Greenland ice sheet mass loss

2014 ◽  
Vol 60 (222) ◽  
pp. 782-794 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Ađalgeirsdóttir ◽  
A. Aschwanden ◽  
C. Khroulev ◽  
F. Boberg ◽  
R. Mottram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Model Simulations

AbstractModel simulations of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to 21st-century sea-level rise are performed with a state-of-the-art ice-sheet model (Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)). The climate-forcing fields are obtained from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme project ice2sea, in which three regional climate models are used to dynamically downscale two scenarios (A1B and E1) from two general circulation models (ECHAM5 and HadCM3). To assess the sensitivity of the projections to the model initial state, four initialization methods are applied. In these experiments, the simulated contribution to sea-level rise by 2100 ranges from an equivalent of 0.2 to 6.8 cm. The largest uncertainties arise from different formulations of the regional climate models (0.8–3.9 cm) and applied scenarios (0.65–1.9 cm), but an important source of uncertainty is the initialization method (0.1–0.8 cm). These model simulations do not account for the recently observed acceleration of ice streams and consequent thinning rates, the changing ice discharge that may result from the spatial and temporal variability of ocean forcing, or the feedback occurring between ice-sheet elevation changes and climate forcing. Thus the results should be considered the lower limit of Greenland ice sheet contributions to sea-level rise, until such processes have been integrated into large-scale ice-sheet models.

scholarly journals Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Hofer ◽  
Charlotte Lang ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Impact

AbstractFuture climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8  ±  7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Shoreline Response to Wave Forcing and Sea Level Rise along a Geomorphological Complex Coastline (Western Sardinia, Mediterranean Sea)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4009
Author(s):  
Simone Simeone ◽  
Luca Palombo ◽  
Emanuela Molinaroli ◽  
Walter Brambilla ◽  
Alessandro Conforti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Grain Size ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Morphological Changes ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Single Beam ◽  
Western Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Submerged Area

Beaches responses to storms, as well as their potential adaptation to the foreseeable sea level rise (SLR), were investigated along three beaches in a coastal tract in western Sardinia (Western Mediterranean Sea). The grain size of the sediments, the beach profile variability and the wave climate were analyzed in order to relate morphological changes, geological inheritances and waves forcing. Multibeam, single-beam and lidar data were used to characterize the inner shelf morphologies and to reproduce the flooding due to the SLR. The studied beaches experienced major changes when consecutive storms, rather than singles ones, occurred along the coastline. The sediment availability, the grain size and the geomorphological structure of the beaches were the most important factors influencing the beach response. On the sediment-deprived coarse beaches the headlands favor the beach rotation, and the gravel barrier morphology can increase the resistance against storms. On the sediment-abundant beaches, the cross-shore sediment transport towards a submerged area leads to a lowering in the subaerial beach level and a contemporaneous shoreline retreat in response to storms. A very limited ingression of the sea is related to the SLR. This process may affect (i) the gravel barrier, promoting a roll over due to the increase in overwash; (ii) the embayed beach increasing its degree of embayment as headlands become more prominent, and (iii) the sediment-abundant beach with an erosion of the whole subaerial beach during storms, which can also involve the foredune area.

Reproduction and projection of sea level around Korean Peninsula using regional climate ocean model with dynamical downscaling method

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwang-Young Jeong ◽  
Eunil Lee ◽  
Do-Seong Byun ◽  
Gwang-Ho Seo ◽  
Hwa-Young Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Change Scenario

<p>Recently, the rate of sea level rise in accelerating with time, and many studies have reported that sea level will increase rapidly in the near future. Also, various global ocean climate models are used to predict sea level rise due to global warming. However, most global ocean climate models have low resolutions, so it is hard to explain detailed the ocean phenomena such as sea level and currents around Korean Peninsula. This study aims to past 30-year reproduce and future 100-year predict for rising trend of sea level using Regional Climate Ocean Model (RCOM) with ROMS according to IPCC climate change scenario (RCP 4.5).</p><p>The RCOM with high resolution of 1/20° horizontally and 40 layers vertically has been established for reproduction and long term forecast of sea-level rise in the Northwest Pacific, including marginal seas around Korea. Dynamic downscaling processes using result of the global climate models were applied to the open boundary conditions of our RCOM. To prepare the optimal boundary data for RCOM, the CMIP5 climate model was evaluated to select 4 climate models: IPSL-CM5A-LR, and -MR, NorESM1-M, MPI-ESM-LR.</p><p>Based on the RCOM results of 4 experiments, the rate of sea level rise for IPCC climate change scenario (RCP4.5) around Korean peninsula were 2.52, 2.21, 3.11, 3.36 mm/yr for the last 30 years (1976~2005), and 5.17, 4.99, 5.62, 5.42 mm/yr for the next 100 years (2006~2100), respectively. Ensemble mean value of next 100 years for 4 model results was 5.30 mm/yr. The sea level rise of 4 models for RCP 4.5 were 48, 48, 58, 48 cm for next 100 years, respectively, and ensemble mean value of 4 models was 50 cm during 2006~2100.</p><p>Future studies will focus on predicting the next 100 years of sea level change based on IPCC climate change scenario (RCP2.6, 8.5).</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Dynamic modelling of future glacier changes: mass-balance/elevation feedback in projections for the Vestfonna ice cap, Nordaustlandet, Svalbard

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (230) ◽  
pp. 1121-1136 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Schäfer ◽  
M. Möller ◽  
T. Zwinger ◽  
J.C. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Mass Balance Models

AbstractFuture projections of the evolution of ice caps as well as ice sheets and consequent sea-level rise face several methodological challenges, one being the two-way coupling between ice flow and mass-balance models. Full two-way coupling between mass-balance models – or, in a wider scope, climate models – and ice flow models has rarely been implemented due to substantial technical challenges. Here we examine some coupling effects for the Vestfonna ice cap, Nordaustlandet, Svalbard, by analysing the impacts of different coupling intervals on mass-balance and sea-level rise projections. By comparing coupled to traditionally deployed uncoupled strategies, we prove that neglecting the topographic feedbacks in the coupling leads to underestimations of 10–20% in sea-level rise projections on century timescales in our model. As imposed climate scenarios increasingly change mass balance, uncertainties in the unknown evolution of the fast-flowing outlet glaciers decrease in importance due to their deceleration and reduced mass flux as they thin and retreat from the coast. Parameterizing mass-balance adjustment for changes in topography using lapse rates as a cost-effective alternative to full coupling produces satisfactory results for modest climate change scenarios. We introduce a method to estimate the error of the presented partially coupled model with respect to as yet unperformed two-way fully coupled results.

Regional Climate Scenarios for use in Nordic Water Resources Studies

2003 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 399-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rummukainen ◽  
J. Räisänen ◽  
D. Bjørge ◽  
J.H. Christensen ◽  
O.B. Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Soil Frost ◽  
Nordic Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

According to global climate projections, a substantial global climate change will occur during the next decades, under the assumption of continuous anthropogenic climate forcing. Global models, although fundamental in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing are typically geographically too coarse to well represent many regional or local features. In the Nordic region, climate studies are conducted in each of the Nordic countries to prepare regional climate projections with more detail than in global ones. Results so far indicate larger temperature changes in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models do not yet fully incorporate hydrology. Water resources studies are carried out off-line using hydrological models. This requires archived meteorological output from climate models. This paper discusses Nordic regional climate scenarios for use in regional water resources studies. Potential end-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding.

GLOBAL IMPACT AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF SEA LEVEL RISE BASED ON MULTIPLE CLIMATE MODELS

2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. I_167-I_174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koujiro TSUCHIDA ◽  
Makoto TAMURA ◽  
Naoko KUMANO ◽  
Eiji MASUNAGA ◽  
Hiromune YOKOKI
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Global Impact

scholarly journals Water Budgets of Managed Forests in Northeast Germany under Climate Change—Results from a Model Study on Forest Monitoring Sites

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2403
Author(s):  
Daniel Ziche ◽  
Winfried Riek ◽  
Alexander Russ ◽  
Rainer Hentschel ◽  
Jan Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Forest Monitoring ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Time ◽  
Time Period

To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6.

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